I am incredibly honoured to share that I have received the 25-Year Long Service Award from the Calgary Real Estate Board. It is a milestone that feels both humbling and rewarding. They say that if you love what you do, you will never work a day in your life, and that sentiment could not ring more true for me.

Over the past two and a half decades, I have had the privilege of helping hundreds of clients through one of life’s biggest transitions: buying or selling a home. There is no moment more gratifying than seeing a homeowner thrilled at the firm sale of their property, or watching a buyer receive the keys to their new home, eyes lit up with excitement and possibility. These are the moments that never get old.

Real estate is not just about contracts and keys; it is about people, relationships, and trust. I truly believe that I bring value to each transaction, and after 25 years in this business, I can confidently say that experience matters. Each negotiation, each market shift, and each unique client story has contributed to the depth of insight and perspective I bring to the table today.

This milestone is not mine alone. I am so fortunate to work alongside a phenomenal team, the Viani Real Estate Group, whose commitment, professionalism, and shared passion make every day in this business better. Most importantly, I want to thank my wife and kids. Their unwavering support, patience, and love have been the foundation that has allowed me to pursue this career with heart and purpose.

To my clients, colleagues, family, and friends, thank you. Thank you for the trust, the conversations, the challenges, and the celebrations. Here is to the next chapter, because I am just as excited about the future as I was when I started.

Thank you

Joe Viani

Canada’s housing market is showing faint signs of revival, according to a new report from RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue. 

Data from local real estate boards indicates that sales activity ticked upward in May across several cities where sales previously pulled back, hinting at a recovery in a sector rattled by a trade war and lingering economic uncertainty.

This was the case for Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Fraser Valley, Saskatoon and Regina where the number of transactions partially rebounded from significant declines earlier this year.

“The de-escalation of tariffs has taken centre stage since May, alleviating some of the worst fears about the potential economic fallout even though recent doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs increases risks in some communities,” said Hogue. “We expect to get a clearer view in the coming months.”

Different stories across the country

Markets in southern Ontario and parts of British Columbia, the country’s least affordable areas, remain especially soft, Hogue notes. Activity in many of them is close to cyclical lows and will take time to rebound to more robust levels.

These markets are also where prices are under the most downward pressure. The MLS Home Price Index fell again in several markets in May from April, including the Toronto region, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Vancouver and Fraser Valley. 

Trends in other parts of the country are relatively sturdier. Prairie markets such as Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, and some in Quebec, including Quebec City, and the Atlantic region like St. John’s have held up so far, “albeit they are not entirely unscathed from trade-induced anxiety,” said Hogue.

Toronto: A hesitant uptick

Toronto appears to be regaining its footing. Home resales rose 8.4 per cent in May over April on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking a second straight monthly increase. While the volume remains well below pre-pandemic highs, the upward trend suggests that sentiment is shifting.

Buyers continue to enjoy leverage. Inventory is at its highest in decades, putting pressure on sellers. Home prices remain under stress, with the MLS Home Price Index down 4.5 per cent from May 2024, even as it ticked up slightly month-over-month.

Montreal: Resilience amid uncertainty

Montreal has been steadier in the face of economic turbulence. Resale activity slipped just 2 per cent between April and May, and remains at what Hogue calls “solid pre-pandemic levels.” A reasonably balanced market has kept upward pressure on prices.

Single-family homes saw an 8.6 per cent year-over-year price increase in May, with condos rising 4.3 per cent. That pace is expected to moderate as more sellers enter the market, said Hogue.

Vancouver: Slowdown persists

Resales dropped again in May, marking six straight months of decline, while inventory swelled to a 12-year high, fueled by an influx of unsold condo completions.

The result: falling prices. The city’s MLS HPI was down 2.9 per cent from a year ago in May, and downward momentum is expected to continue in the near term.

Calgary: Defying the trend

Calgary stands out for its resilience. May resale activity jumped more than 8 per cent following three months of declines. A fast-growing population and strong job growth – three times the national average – continue to drive demand.

While the city’s HPI dipped 2.5 per cent year-over-year, new construction has helped keep prices in check without deterring buyers.

Coutrest Real Estate Magazine

Thanks to steep pullbacks in the apartment condominium sector, total residential sales in Calgary eased by 17 per cent compared to May of last year. While the drop does seem significant, the 2,568 sales this month remain 11 per cent higher than long-term trends for May and improved over last month.

New listings continued to rise this month compared to sales, resulting in further gains in inventory levels. However, the monthly gain in both inventory and sales prevented any significant change in the months of supply compared to April. With 2.6 months of supply, conditions are still relatively balanced. 

“Compared to last year, easing sales and rising inventories are consistent trends across many cities, as uncertainty continues to weigh on housing demand. However, prior to the economic uncertainty, Calgary was dealing with seller market conditions, and the recent pullbacks in sales and inventory have helped shift us toward balanced conditions taking the pressure off prices,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “This is a different situation from some of the other larger cities, where their housing markets were struggling prior to the addition of economic uncertainty.”    

Last year there was limited inventory across most property types and price ranges. Recent inventory gains are creating pockets of the market that are struggling with too much supply while in other areas supply levels are still low relative to the demand, resulting in divergent trends in home prices.

Both detached and semi-detached home prices have remained relatively stable this month and are still higher than last year’s levels. Meanwhile, row and apartment style homes have reported modest monthly price declines and May prices remain below last year’s levels, as improved new home and rental supply is weighing on resale prices. Overall, the total residential unadjusted benchmark price in Calgary was $589,900, slightly lower than last month and over two per cent below May 2024 levels.   

Detached

New listings in May rose to 2,419 units, with most of the gains driven by homes priced over $600,000. At the same time, sales activity has slowed across most price ranges, supporting a shift toward more balanced conditions and relative stability in prices. However, districts that are facing more competition from new home product or are seeing a larger pullback in demand are starting to show some signs of elevated supply.

The North East district has seen the largest pullback in resale sales activity combined with some of the highest gains in new listings. This has driven the sales-to-new listings ratio down to 41 per cent and the months of supply was nearly four months in May. This is causing prices to ease in the North East, offsetting some of the gains reported in the City Centre, West, and North West districts. City-wide the unadjusted benchmark price in May was $769,400, similar to last month, one percent higher than last May, and still above last year’s seasonal peak price.  

Semi-Detached

The 428 new listings in May were met with 256 sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 60 per cent this month. This slowed the pace of inventory growth and the months of supply remained just above two months.  Semi-detached homes continue to remain less than 10 per cent of all sales and inventory levels in the city.

This in part is due to construction patterns shifting toward more row style properties over semi-detached, and is one of the reasons we do not see the same inventory build as row and apartment style homes. 

Like the detached market there is significant variation within the city districts. The North East has the highest months of supply at nearly three months and is reporting some price declines, while the tightest conditions are in the North West, where prices continue to rise. Overall, generally tighter conditions are still supporting price gains for semi-detached properties. In April the unadjusted benchmark price was $697,300, a monthly gain of less than one per cent, nearly three per cent higher than last year’s levels and above last year’s seasonal peak.

Row

Row home sales have eased over last year’s near record high pace but stayed well above long-term trends.  However, the gain in new listings has continued to cause further inventory gains. For the second month in a row, inventory levels were over 1,000 units; we have not seen this much inventory for row units since 2021.

While inventory levels have improved across all districts, we are starting to see higher months of supply in the North East district at 3.5 months, resulting in some downward pressure on prices. The North, North West and South areas have also reported higher year-over-year pullbacks in resale prices, as improved supply choice for new properties are impacting resale activity. Overall, the benchmark price in May was $453,600, down over last month, nearly two per cent below last May, and lower than last year’s seasonal high.  

Apartment Condominium

Sales this month totaled 579 units, a significant decline over last May’s record high of 907 units. While new listings were lower than levels reported last year, they remained high compared to sales, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to drop to 47% this month. This contributed to further inventory gains and drove the months of supply up to 3.6 months.

High levels of apartment rental units under construction are adding to the rental supply and contributing to rent adjustments. This is likely slowing condo ownership demand coming from existing renters and potential investors, contributing to some of the shifts witnessed in the apartment condominium sector. 

More supply choice is also weighing on condominium prices. In May the benchmark price eased to $335,300, down from last month and over one per cent lower than last year. The steepest declines are occurring in the North East and South East districts, where competition from the new home market is weighing on resale pricing. While prices have eased and are below peak levels, recent declines have not offset the double-digit gains reported over the past two years.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

While improving over last month, May sales eased compared to last year, contributing to the year-to-date decline of 10 per cent. However, the 772 sales so far this year are consistent with long-term trends in Airdrie. At the same time new listings continue to rise causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 58 per cent, still well within balanced conditions, but a significant change from the over 90 per cent ratio reported last year. Recent shifts in sales and new listings have supported gains in inventory levels.

In May there were 468 units in inventory, reflecting the highest May reported since prior to the pandemic. The shift in supply is in part related to the surge in new construction providing more options for potential consumers. Additional supply choice is impacting price growth.  The total residential benchmark price was $540,600 in May, down nearly one per cent over last month and nearly two per cent below last year’s levels.

Cochrane

Sales in Cochrane were fairly resilient until this month, where sales were 17 per cent slower than last year. The decline was enough to cause year-to-date sales to ease to levels just below those reported last year.  At the same time, this month new listings surged, driving the sales-to-new listings ratio down to 55 per cent and supporting further inventory gains.  With 293 units available in May, levels are more consistent with long-term trends. The months of supply neared three months in May and while this did slow the pace of price growth, the total residential benchmark price of $589,400 is still nearly four per cent higher than last May.

Okotoks

A boost in new listings this month supported a surge in sales activity. However, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 74%, inventory levels did not change much over last month and the months of supply once again dropped below two months. Okotoks has struggled to add supply at the pace reported in Calgary, Cochrane and Airdrie and sales growth has been dampened by limited supply choice.

While there have been some improvements in inventory levels, as of May levels remained nearly 28 per cent below long-term trends for the city.  The limited supply choice given the relatively strong demand has continue to support some price growth in the town. As of May the unadjusted benchmark price was $633,900, up over last month and over two per cent higher than last year. 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Benchmark Rate holds steady at 2.75%

The Bank of Canada has kept its overnight interest rate target at 2.75 per cent. It is the second straight meeting the Bank has kept rates on hold after a string of decreases amounting to 225 basis points over the last nine months. It is a guarded step amidst ongoing economic uncertainties, notably those relating to U.S. trade policies. The Bank subsequently stated that “bilateral trade negotiations have been initiated with several countries; but the result of such negotiations is extremely uncertain.”

“In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the Bank had forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. The pull-forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand roughly flat. Strong spending on machinery and equipment held up growth in business investment by more than expected,” according to the Bank’s announcement. “Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales.”

Stable interest rates can provide some comfort to sellers and buyers moving into summer, but persistent economic uncertainty, especially on the trade front, can still put a damper on consumer confidence and housing activity in the coming months.

Bank of Canada’s 2025 Policy Interest Rate Announcement Schedule

Bank of Canada announces its decision for the overnight rate target eight times a year, typically on a Wednesday. The schedule for 2025 is as follows:

• Wednesday, January 29

• Wednesday, March 12

• Wednesday, April 16

• Wednesday, June 4

• Wednesday, July 30

• Wednesday, September 17

• Wednesday, October 29

• Wednesday, December 10

Read the full interest rate announcement below:

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

Since the April Monetary Policy Report, the US administration has continued to increase and decrease various tariffs. China and the United States have stepped back from extremely high tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations have begun with a number of countries. However, the outcomes of these negotiations are highly uncertain, tariff rates are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. Uncertainty remains high.

While the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, this partly reflects a temporary surge in activity to get ahead of tariffs. In the United States, domestic demand remained relatively strong but higher imports pulled down first-quarter GDP. US inflation has ticked down but remains above 2%, with the price effects of tariffs still to come. In Europe, economic growth has been supported by exports, while defence spending is set to increase.  China’s economy has slowed as the effects of past fiscal support fade. More recently, high tariffs have begun to curtail Chinese exports to the US. Since the financial market turmoil in April, risk assets have largely recovered and volatility has diminished, although markets remain sensitive to US policy announcements. Oil prices have fluctuated but remain close to their levels at the time of the April MPR.

In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the Bank had forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. The pull-forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand roughly flat. Strong spending on machinery and equipment held up growth in business investment by more than expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence. Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales. Government spending also declined. The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9%. The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued.  

CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April, as the elimination of the federal consumer carbon tax reduced inflation by 0.6 percentage points. Excluding taxes, inflation rose 2.3% in April, slightly stronger than the Bank had expected. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, as well as other measures of underlying inflation, moved up. Recent surveys indicate that households continue to expect that tariffs will raise prices and many businesses say they intend to pass on the costs of higher tariffs. The Bank will be watching all these indicators closely to gauge how inflationary pressures are evolving.

With uncertainty about US tariffs still high, the Canadian economy softer but not sharply weaker, and some unexpected firmness in recent inflation data, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate as we gain more information on US trade policy and its impacts. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.

Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. 

We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.

Courtesy REMAX LLC

The Viani Real Estate Group is thrilled to share that we have officially joined REMAX Innovations!

This move marks an exciting new chapter. REMAX Innovations is a dynamic, forward-thinking brokerage offering enhanced resources, cutting-edge tools, and a collaborative environment, all of which help us serve you better.

In addition to joining this exceptional brokerage, the group has also moved into our own newly renovated office on Centre Street North! This fresh, professional space gives us a central, welcoming location where we can meet with you, plan your real estate goals, and showcase the systems and strategies we used to help our clients succeed.

While our office and brokerage are new, our dedication to you remains stronger than ever. We are proud to continue representing the REMAX brand, the most recognized name in real estate worldwide, and to deliver the high level of service, expertise, and results you have come to expect from us.

Whether you are thinking of buying, selling, investing, or just exploring options, I am here to help and always grateful for your referrals. These exciting changes mean more value, insight, and support for your real estate journey.

We can not wait to welcome you to our new space and show you all the exciting things we have been working on.

Thank you for your continued trust and support.

Viani Real Estate Group

REMAX Innovations

www.vianigroup.com

A boost in new listings this month relative to sales caused April inventories to rise to 5,876 units. Although this is more than double the number reported last year, last year’s supply was exceptionally low, and current inventory levels are consistent with what we typically see in April. April sales reached 2,236 units—22 percent below last year’s levels but in line with long-term trends

“Economic uncertainty has weighed on home sales in our market, but levels are still outpacing activity reported during the challenging economic climate experienced prior to the pandemic,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “This, in part, is related to our market's situation before the recent shocks. Previous gains in migration, relatively stable employment levels, lower lending rates, and better supply choice compared to last year’s ultra-low levels have likely prevented a more significant pullback in sales and have kept home prices relatively stable.”

The rise in inventory levels helped the market shift to balanced conditions with nearly three months of supply. However, conditions vary depending on price range and property type. Lower-priced detached and semi-detached properties continue to struggle with insufficient supply, while row and apartment-style homes are seeing more broad-based shifts to balanced conditions.

The additional supply has helped relieve the pressure on home prices following the steep gains reported over the past several years. Benchmark prices for each property type have remained relatively stable compared to last month. However, compared to last year, detached and semi-detached prices are over two per cent higher than last year's levels, while apartment and row-style home prices have remained relatively unchanged.

Detached

Detached sales were 1,102 units in April, a year-over-year decline of 16 per cent. While sales eased across most areas of the city, the South East district has seen sales rise over last year's levels. April saw 1,907 new listings come onto the market, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained balanced at 58 per cent. Inventories rose to 2,511 units, and the months of supply rose to 2.3 months. While this is a significant gain over the less than one month of supply reported last year at this time, conditions remain relatively tight, especially in the lower price ranges.

In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $769,300, similar to last month but over two per cent higher than last April. The added supply choice, combined with uncertainty, has slowed the pace of price growth. However, with a year-over-year gain of nearly five per cent, the City Centre has exhibited stronger price growth than any other district.

Semi-Detached

Easing sales in April contributed to the year-to-date decline of nearly 16 per cent. The 190 sales in April were met with 350 new listings, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to 54 per cent. This also caused further gains in inventory levels, which reached 484 units. The rise in inventory did help push the market toward balanced conditions with 2.6 months of supply, a significant improvement over the less than one month reported at this time last year.

The shift toward more balanced conditions has slowed the pace of price growth. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price was $691,700, similar to last month and over three per cent higher than last year. The City Centre reported the largest gain, at over five per cent, while prices in the North remained stable compared to last year.

Row

April sales slowed for row homes, contributing to the year-to-date decline of 16 per cent. Meanwhile, new listings continued to rise compared to last year, driving the sales-to-new-listings down to 51 per cent. In April, inventories reached 1,005 units, the highest level reported since 2021, and the months of supply rose to nearly three months. Improved supply has taken some of the pressure off prices,

In April, the unadjusted row price was $457,400, a slight gain over last month, but relatively unchanged compared to April of last year and still below last year's peak price reported in June. The pullbacks reported in the North and Northeast districts offset year-over-year gains in most districts.

Apartment Condominium

April sales eased by nearly 30 per cent over last year's record high but were far stronger than long-term trends. While sales have remained relatively strong, new listings in April reached a record high for the month, supporting further gains in inventory levels. With three months of supply in the city, conditions are considered relatively balanced. However, activity does range significantly based on location, impacting price movements.

The North East district reported the highest months of supply at seven months, resulting in a year-over-year price decline of two per cent and a spread of over seven per cent from last year's high. Overall, the April benchmark price in the city was $336,000, similar to last year but still three per cent lower than last year's record high.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

For the third month in a row, sales activity eased compared to last year's levels. Despite the declines, sales remain above long-term trends. At the same time, new listings continue to rise, but with 185 sales and 290 new listings in April, the sales-to-new listings ratio reached 64 percent, an improvement over recent months. Inventory levels continued to trend up this month. However, after three consecutive years of exceptionally low April levels, inventory is now consistent with long-term trends. With 2.3 months of supply, conditions are moving to a more balanced state, taking the pressure off home prices. In April, the total residential price was $544,700, relatively unchanged compared to both last month and last year's levels.

Cochrane

For the fourth month in a row, sales activity in the area has remained consistent with last year's levels, resulting in 335 sales so far this year, a nearly five per cent gain over last year and consistent with long-term trends. New listings have also been on the rise, but the sales-to-new-listings ratio has remained at 60 per cent, preventing the doubling of inventory in this market. While inventory levels have improved compared to last year, the 246 units available in April are just shy of long-term trends. Like other areas, improvements in supply have slowed the pace of price growth, but in Cochrane, prices are still edging up. In April, the total residential benchmark price was $592,000, trending up over last month and nearly six per cent higher than prices reported in the previous year and at a record high.

Okotoks

Sales in Okotoks continue to ease compared to last year, contributing to the year-to-date decline of 16 per cent. Over the past few years, sales have been restricted by a lack of supply. However, this year we have started to see a shift. New listings continue to improve in April compared to sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to ease to 53 per cent, supporting inventory gains. However, with 127 units in inventory in April, levels remain below long-term trends for the month. The modest gains in inventory have slowed the pace of price growth in the area. As of April, the unadjusted benchmark price was $627,100, down slightly from last month, but nearly two per cent higher than last April.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Courtesy CREB

The Canadian Real Estate Association has significantly downgraded its forecast for home sales activity and average prices for 2025 and 2026, citing mounting economic uncertainties and trade tensions.

In its latest quarterly report, CREA says this is the association’s “largest revision in between quarterly forecasts on record going back to the 2008-2009 financial crisis.” Concerns about tariffs and economic instability have notably impacted market confidence, pushing potential buyers to remain cautious or delay home purchases.

Home sales expected to remain flat in 2025

CREA now forecasts that approximately 482,673 homes will be sold in 2025, effectively unchanged (down just 0.02 percent) compared to 2024. This contrasts with CREA’s January prediction, which projected an 8.6 percent sales increase.

The anticipated stagnation reflects ongoing worries around the potential impacts of tariffs, stagflation risks, and uncertain interest rate movements throughout the year.

Average home prices see downward adjustment

The national average home price is expected to see a slight decline of 0.3 per cent, settling at $687,898 in 2025—around $30,000 lower than earlier forecasts. Price reductions are expected in British Columbia and Ontario while other provinces, still projected to see moderate price growth, have also had their expectations scaled back significantly to a modest 3 per cent to 5 percent increase.

Mild recovery expected next year

CREA anticipates a cautious recovery in 2026, forecasting home sales will increase by 2.9 percent and reach 496,487 units. 

Still, the report notes, “sales would fail to crack the half-million mark for the fourth straight year. Historically, since 2007, national home sales have surpassed 500,000 units seven times.”

The national average price is forecast to increase slightly by 1.2 per cent over 2025, reaching $696,074.

Courtesy REM Magazine.

The tariff tumult has rocked the global economy from North America to Asia. Canada, a critical trading partner for the United States, is stuck in the crosshairs of the new administration’s trade agenda – and the country could endure a shellacking the longer the trade dispute lingers.

During the April 2 “Make America Wealthy Again” speech, President Donald Trump announced a universal baseline tariff of ten percent and higher reciprocal tariffs, which have since been paused. Many Canadians were pleased that the nation was omitted from either list, particularly because Canada was subjected to the previous tariff regimes on automobiles, aluminum, and steel.

Indeed, Canada is not out of the woods just yet, and Ottawa’s recent actions signal that conditions could remain tense in the coming weeks or months.

Suffice it to say that the global levies announced by President Donald Trump are likely to impact Canada’s housing and mortgage sector significantly. The tariffs can affect construction costs, mortgage rates, and housing affordability for the average Canadian.

According to a research note by RBC Economics, Canada imported approximately $7.5 billion worth of steel and $9.4 billion worth of aluminum products from the United States last year. Canada accounts for nearly one-fifth of U.S. steel imports and about half of aluminum imports. Even HVAC unit and appliance costs are likely to increase since they are often assembled in the United States and brought to Canada.

In addition, many Canadian builders purchase crucial parts from the United States, especially from steel companies based there.

Lumber, meanwhile, is expected to be next on the White House’s tariff hit list. While Canadian lumber has been exempted from higher import duties – which could provide temporary breathing room to the Canadian real estate market – markets are bracing for a sudden announcement confirming new tariffs.

Should they go into effect, the tariffs will put cost pressure on Canadian housing.

The problem is that building material prices have climbed in Canada since the pandemic. With potential U.S. tariffs, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates that nearly $9,000 would be added to the average cost to build a new single-family home. The increased cost can be attributed to labour shortages emanating from ubiquitous trade uncertainties, ballooning prices for materials like steel and gypsum, widely anticipated supply chain disruptions again due to trade uncertainties, and the ongoing 14.5 percent tariff on Canadian lumber.

As for broader inflation developments, economists have sounded the alarm that tariffs will likely increase inflation rates, resulting in higher interest rates due to cost increases, reduced market competition, supply chain disruptions, and retaliatory measures. Will this force the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further? The central bank has already employed pre-emptive rate cuts – adopting the famous “insurance rate cut” scheme proffered by former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan in the 1990s – but whether the institution can continue cutting remains to be seen.

Additionally, internal and external forces affect the Canadian mortgage market, from the Federal Reserve to the bond market. If these tariffs worsen inflation south of the border, borrowing costs will likely increase across North America.

What This Means for Canada’s Housing Situation

Canada is already in a housing crisis, prompting experts to demand more housing units.

According to a 2023 study by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Canada needs to build 5.8 million new homes by 2030 if it wants housing affordability for Canadians. With the tariffs, construction costs will increase, and builders and investors might reconsider their plans before taking on new housing projects.

Remember, it is not just about steel. Higher prices will affect everything related to housing, whether cement, flooring, appliances, or tiles. Housing projects could be shelved, and the demand and supply gap could worsen. The last thing Canada needs right now is to increase homebuilding prices.

A trade spat could also harm the broader economic landscape.

In addition to the direct impact on house-building costs and the rise in mortgage rates, another potential problem is the risk of job losses resulting from trade tensions. Canadians are already struggling with the increase in the cost of living. With jobs at risk, layoffs, and a lack of new opportunities, housing demand could decrease, and the overall confidence in the real estate market could decrease. Existing homeowners could feel the pressure when renewing their mortgages, and new borrowers would find it difficult to afford monthly payments and pass approval processes. All this could hinder investment in housing.

An Economic Shift

In the end, the fact is that tariffs and trade wars result in economic shifts and uncertainty. This can hurt any market, and the housing market is no different. Buyers will be unable to buy because of rising prices, and investors will be hesitant to build because of rising costs. Lack of economic stability, reduced job opportunities, inflation, and high interest rates all delay major financial decisions such as buying a home. Housing development will slow down, the supply of homes will tighten, and demand will further push prices up, which will likely cause a major shake-up in the housing market.

Trade tensions are never suitable for any region. They can influence prices, impact monetary policy, and generally make things expensive. With all these pressures looming, many factors could be played out, including the Bank of Canada lowering interest rates, making mortgages cheaper, and potentially stimulating housing demand.

The current environment is uncertain. This is the one thing every market participant dislikes.

Tariffs and trade tensions could reshape Canada’s housing market—are you prepared.

Connect with a trusted RE/MAX agent today to understand how these changes could impact your buying, selling, or investment plans, and make your decisions with confidence.

Courtesy RE/MAX 

Ongoing economic uncertainty, driven by tariff threats, has weighed on consumer confidence and impacted housing activity in March. Sales declined by 19 per cent year-over-year, totaling 2,159 units. Sales slowed across all property types, with the steepest declines seen in higher-density segments.

“It is not a surprise to see a pullback in sales given the uncertainty,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “However, it is important to note that sales still remain stronger than anything reported throughout 2015 to 2020, where our economy faced significant economic challenges and job loss. Nonetheless, easing demand has been met with gains in new listings and rising inventories, helping our market shift back toward balanced conditions, following four consecutive years where the market favoured the seller.”

March reported over 4,000 new listings, causing the sales-to-new-listing ratio to drop to 54 per cent, low enough to support further inventory gains. Total residential inventory levels reached 5,154 units, and the months of supply pushed up to 2.4 months. While this is a significant change from last year, with limited supply options across all property types and price ranges, conditions reflect a better balance between a seller and a buyer today. However, the market significantly varies depending on location, price point, and property type. 

Improving supply has taken the pressure off home prices following the steep gains reported over the previous four years. In March, the unadjusted residential benchmark price reached $592,500, relatively stable compared to both last month and prices reported last March. Both detached and semi-detached prices remain consistent with peak prices and continue to rise, while apartment and row-style homes continue to report prices slightly lower than last year's peak.  

Detached
Detached sales totalled 1,035 units in March, a year-over-year decline of 10 per cent. The decline in sales was met with improving new listings, supporting inventory gains over last year's extremely low levels. The improving supply compared to sales has caused the months of supply to rise to just over two months, a significant improvement over the less than one month reported last spring. However, the months of supply continue to remain tight with less than two months of supply for homes priced below $700,000. We are seeing a shift toward more balanced conditions for homes priced above $800,000.

The unadjusted detached benchmark price reached $769,800 in March, a gain over last month and over four percent higher than last year's levels. Limited supply options continue to support price gains for detached homes, although the pace of growth has slowed from the double-digit gains reported last year. Some of the largest gains occurred in the City Centre.

Semi-Detached
March sales slowed over last year's levels, contributing to the first quarter decline of 11 percent. The decline in sales has also been met with a gain in new listings. While conditions still remained relatively tight over the first two months of the year, the boost in new listings in March relative to sales did support further gains in inventory levels, causing the months of supply to push up to 2.2 months, the highest monthly level reported since the end of 2022. 

The shift to more balanced conditions is slowing the pace of price growth compared to last year. However, with an unadjusted benchmark price of $691,900 in March, prices are still over five per cent higher than last year and above the unadjusted peak reached in July last year. Year-over-year gains ranged across the city, with the largest gains occurring in the City Centre and West districts.

Row
March reported a surge in new listings with 697 units. The growth in new listings was met with 400 sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to ease, and inventories to rise from the lower levels reported last year. There were 826 units in inventory in March, pushing above long-term trends, but remaining shy of some of the highs reported prior to the pandemic. Supply levels improved across all price ranges, with much of the gains occurring in the North East, North and South East districts. Like other property types, improving inventory relative to sales has shifted the market toward more balanced conditions, especially for row homes priced above $500,000. This has also slowed the upward pressure on home prices. In March, the unadjusted benchmark price was $454,000, two percent higher than last March, but nearly four percent below peak levels reported in June of last year. 

Apartment Condominium
After the first quarter, condo sales reported the largest decline over last year compared to other property types. However, we achieved record highs last year, and the 1,383 sales remain well above long-term trends for the first quarter. Relatively strong demand has also been met with significant gains in new listings, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to fall below 50 per cent and driving inventory gains. As of March, there were 1,710 units in inventory, causing the months of supply to push up to just over three months. While the months of supply have risen compared to the exceptionally low levels seen over the previous three years, levels remain well below the over six-month average seen throughout 2015 – 2020.

Nonetheless, more supply has slowed the pace of price growth. The unadjusted benchmark price in March was $336,100, similar to last month and nearly three per cent higher than last March. Despite the year-over-year gain, prices remain below the peak reported last August. Prices are below peak across all districts, but the largest declines have occurred in the North and North East areas. 

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie
With 160 sales in March, first quarter sales were 395 units, 11 per cent lower than levels reported at this time last year. Easing sales were also met with a gain in new listings, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to fall to 57 percent in March and supporting further gains in inventory levels. Last year at this time, there was limited supply available in the market compared to the sales activity. While the 398 units in inventory are much higher than the 164 units reported last year, with nearly two and a half months of supply, conditions are still moving toward more balanced conditions. Shifting away from the sellers’ market conditions has taken some of the pressure off home prices. In March, the unadjusted detached benchmark price was $651,300, up over last month and over two percent higher than prices reported last year. Recent gains have narrowed the gap from the peak price of $657,400 reported in June 2024.

Cochrane
Sales in Cocrane remained consistent with last year's levels in March. After the first quarter, activity remained slightly higher than levels reported last year and well above long-term averages. New listings also improved, but thanks to the level of sales, the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained elevated at 67 per cent, slowing the growth in inventory levels compared to some areas. The 213 units available in inventory in March are a rise over last year's low levels, but are consistent with long-term trends for the month. Improvements in inventory and stable sales did cause the months of supply to trend toward more balanced conditions, especially compared with the previous four years. This shift has slowed the pace of price growth in the town. In March, detached benchmark prices reached $686,800, a gain over last month and over five percent higher than last year. While price growth has slowed over last year, the current March price does reflect a new unadjusted record high for the town.

Okotoks
After the first three months, sales in Okotoks totaled 129 units, down from the 155 units reported in the first quarter of last year. New listings have started improving, but the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained above 60 percent, and inventory levels remain exceptionally low. With 96 units in inventory and 53 sales in March, the months of supply remained below two months, driving further monthly and year-over-year price gains. While price growth has eased from last year, in March the unadjusted detached benchmark price reached $715,500, a new unadjusted record high and over five per cent higher than levels reported last year at this time.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Courtesy CREB

What Happens When You Sell a House with a Mortgage in Canada

There are a variety of reasons that you might consider selling a house with a mortgage. The most common scenarios are when you need to move to a new location for a new employment opportunity, your family situation has changed with the addition of children or when your children head off to college or university or move out altogether. In each case, if your home no longer meets your needs, you may be contemplating breaking your mortgage contract. If you are considering selling a house with a mortgage, ensure you understand all the costs associated with breaking the mortgage contract.

The Costs of Breaking the Mortgage Contract

The cost of selling your home before the mortgage term ends and breaking the mortgage contract will depend on your mortgage type. If you chose your mortgage type without really understanding the ins and outs of an open versus closed mortgage, it’s time to get up to date on what you bought into when you signed on the dotted line.

Open Mortgages

When it comes to selling a house with a mortgage, if you have an open mortgage, you can sell your home without paying penalties for breaking the mortgage contract. That’s because an open mortgage is designed to provide greater flexibility without incurring financial penalties. While open mortgages still have a term, borrowers don’t have to wait until the mortgage matures to make changes.

You can make additional mortgage payments on a month-to-month or year-to-year basis without limitations, change your mortgage payment frequency, refinance, pay off, or break your mortgage before the end of your open mortgage term, all without incurring any prepayment penalties whatsoever.

However, the tradeoff for all this flexibility is that open mortgages come with higher interest rates than closed mortgages. Lenders charge a premium for allowing borrowers to break or change their mortgage agreement without penalties.

Open mortgages are usually chosen by homeowners who anticipate being able to make larger prepayments or pay off their mortgage sooner or whose life circumstances may require them to sell their homes before the end of the mortgage term.

Closed Mortgages

If you chose a closed mortgage for the lower interest rate or because you had no intention of selling before your mortgage term expired, you may be facing substantial penalty fees associated with wanting to break the mortgage now.

A closed mortgage has set conditions for the duration of the mortgage term. Once the mortgage contract is signed, the terms and conditions can’t be altered without incurring prepayment penalties.

Closed mortgages are known for their lack of flexibility. Lenders may offer some prepayment privileges, such as the ability to pay a certain percentage of the principal each year without penalty, but if you want to prepay more, pay off the mortgage entirely, refinance, or change the mortgage before the end of the term, a prepayment penalty will be levied.

Lower interest rates are the tradeoff for this lack of flexibility. Lenders are willing to provide more favourable mortgage interest rates on a closed mortgage in order to deter borrowers from breaking the mortgage contract or making additional prepayments.

Closed mortgages are usually chosen by homeowners who expect to remain in their recently purchased home for at least the duration of the mortgage term. This option is also optimal if you don’t anticipate making prepayments above and beyond what’s allowed in the mortgage agreement.

As indicated, if you have a closed mortgage, there will be penalties for selling your home before the term is up.

The highest cost will be the prepayment penalty – the fee for breaking the mortgage contract. The prepayment penalty can be thousands of dollars and will vary based on the terms of your mortgage contract. There will also be administrative fees, appraisal fees, reinvestment fees and a mortgage discharge fee, which removes the charge on your current mortgage and registers a new one.

You may also have to repay any cash-back or home equity line of credit you received when you got your mortgage. These fees can make breaking a mortgage before the term ends VERY pricey.

Options for Breaking a Mortgage Contract

There are options if you are thinking about selling a house with a mortgage. Some mortgage lenders may allow you to extend the length of your mortgage while beginning a new mortgage in a Blend-and-Extend option. In this option, the interest rates for the old and new terms are blended, and you won’t have to pay the prepayment penalty. However, you still may need to pay administrative fees.

Unfortunately, not every mortgage lender offers this option, so the only other choice is to break the mortgage contract. In this case, you may get a lower interest rate on your new home, but you will have to pay a prepayment penalty for breaking the contract. If you have a choice in whether you sell your home before the mortgage term ends, ensure that the benefits of breaking the contract outweigh the costs of paying the prepayment penalty and any other associated fees.

Pros and Cons of Selling a House With a Mortgage

It can be tempting to break your mortgage or sell your home if you see a lower interest rate or a home that better meets your needs in the market. But in some cases, you may not have much of a choice in the matter, like if you have to move for work.

Here are some of the pros and cons of selling a house with a mortgage and breaking the contract:

Pro: You may be able to get a lower interest rate and pay off the mortgage faster if you keep the payments the same. When moving into a new house, it is possible that you could get a lower interest rate than on your previous mortgage, and if you budget your mortgage payments as if you are paying into your old mortgage, then you could pay off your new mortgage early.

Con: You could end up paying more in the long run because of fees and prepayment penalties. The fees for breaking a mortgage before the term ends are very high, and even if you make higher payments on your new mortgage, there is no guarantee that the interest saved will be enough to cover the penalties. However, your mortgage advisor can run the calculations for you.

Pro: You may be able to lock in at a lower interest rate for the new mortgage term. Selling your house allows you to look for a lower interest rate for your new home, saving you money in the long run.

Con: You may no longer qualify for a mortgage under current economic conditions. Times are tough, and it could be that you are selling your house not to buy a new one but to move into a rental. If this is the case, again, it’s vital to ensure that the benefits of selling your home early outweigh the costs of the penalties.

What Mortgage-Breaking Penalties May Look Like

Many homeowners who decide to post a for-sale sign on their front lawn might be surprised to learn that they face a sizeable mortgage-breaking penalty, mainly because of how interest rates have evolved since 2019. According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), in June 2019, the average conventional fixed mortgage lending rate for a five-year term was 4.23 per cent. By June 2021, it had fallen to 3.26 per cent. In October 2024, it surged to 6.49 per cent, then dropped back to 3.99 per cent in November 2024.

In order to capitalize on higher interest rates, mortgage lenders can use various techniques to impose penalties on borrowers before their loans expire. Industry experts assert that the most common formula banks use is the difference between the lender’s present rate and the contractual rate, which is also referred to as an Interest Rate Differential (IRD).

If you have a closed mortgage with a variable rate, you will usually be forced to pay three months of interest. If you have a closed mortgage with a fixed rate, you will either pay three months’ worth of interest or the IRD amount, whichever is GREATER.

If you’re considering selling a house with a mortgage, you need to do the math:

Suppose you bought your property when interest rates were high, using a fixed-rate/closed mortgage option with a five-year term at 6.59 per cent. Let’s also suppose that you still have 24 months left in the term, and you still owe $300,000 but want to break the mortgage and sell now.

Three Months’ Interest Calculation:

Outstanding balance of your mortgage:
$300,000

Multiply the outstanding balance of your mortgage by the annual interest rate on your mortgage:
$300,000 x 6.59% = $19,770

Divide the answer by 12 months to get the monthly interest payable per year:
$19,770/12 = $1,647.50

Multiply the answer by 3 (months)
$1,647.50 x 3 = $4,942.50

Total Three Months’ Interest is $4,942.50

Interest Rate Differential Calculation:

Current mortgage interest rate:
6.59%

Current Interest Rate on a 3-Year Term:
4.74%

Rate difference between your mortgage rate and current interest rate:
1.85%

Multiply your mortgage balance by the rate differential to get the interest differential for 1 year:
$300,000 x 1.85% = $5,550

Divide this amount by 12 to get the amount for 1 month:
$5,550.00/12 = $462.50

Multiply this amount by the number of months left in your term:
$462.50 x 24 = $11,100

Total Interest Rate Differential Penalty is $11,100!

In this case of a closed/fixed rate contract, the estimated penalty for selling a house with a mortgage, is $11,100 – since it is the greater of the results for the Three Months’ Interest versus Interest Rate Differential calculations – a sizeable chunk of change!

To lighten your financial load, you can endeavour to trim your penalties by taking advantage of prepayment features. You can either pay a portion of the mortgage early without incurring penalties or max out your prepayment options, meaning you will lower the total balance without triggering added costs.

In the end, sellers should consider a couple of things before selling their home before mortgage expiration:

The first is requesting a payoff quote. Speak with your mortgage lender and obtain a payoff amount, which is the amount owed on the loan.

The second is calculating your home equity. How much equity do you have in your home? This could play an important role in your decision-making as if your property has substantially appreciated since you bought it and there’s a significant difference in the latest market value of your home and the remaining mortgage balance – even a large penalty like the one we calculated above could be justifiable.

When Do You Stop Paying a Mortgage When Selling a House?

If you pay off your mortgage BEFORE you sell your house, your mortgage payments stop when you pay off any applicable penalties, administration fees, appraisal fees, reinvestment fees and mortgage discharge fees.

If you break your mortgage while still owing, once you sell, part of the monies you receive will be used to pay off any relevant penalty fees, plus the remainder due on your mortgage, effectively ending the monthly payments on your old mortgage.

Additional Penalties for Selling a House Before 1 Year in Canada

While principal residences in Canada are not subject to capital gains when sold, investment properties do not share this benefit. So, if you’re considering selling a house with a mortgage – and it happens to be an investment property or a secondary home – if you sell it within a year of purchasing it, you’ll not only pay penalties for breaking the mortgage but you’ll also owe capital gains tax on 50 per cent of your profits.

Gather All the Information

Before selling a house with a mortgage, make sure you understand the costs associated with breaking your mortgage contract. It’s also a good idea to speak with a mortgage adviser, as they can provide you with valuable information needed to help navigate selling your home before the mortgage term ends.

While concerns regarding the impact of future US tariffs on the oil and gas industry and the upcoming federal election exist, there appears to be nominal pullback in the luxury sector of the Calgary real estate market with sales over $1.5 million up more than 11 per cent over last year’s levels. Sixty-eight properties changed hands in the first two months of 2025, up from 61 percent during the same period in 2024.

The city has been a choice destination for buyers from Ontario and British Columbia throughout the pandemic and the trend continues, with interprovincial migration in the Calgary CMA up by close to 21,000 residents between July 1, 2023 and July 1, 2024–the highest net gain in over 20 years. The Calgary CMA also reported the fastest population growth rate in the of all CMA’s over the past 20 years at 5.8 per cent, according to Statistics Canada’s Population Estimates: Subprovincial areas, 2024.

Although migration has been a contributing factor to the rise of Calgary real estate in recent years, the city’s thriving economy has played a substantial role in the uptick in demand for luxury product. A strong oil and gas industry, an emerging tech sector, and the city’s efforts to further diversify the economy and bring new business to the area are starting to pay off.

Luxury represented approximately 2.2 percent of overall Calgary real estate market share this year, up from 1.6 percent reported during the same period one year ago. The lion’s share of sales at the top end were detached homes at almost 93 percent, with condominium and semi-detached properties making up the remaining seven percent. Most of the sales in the market so far this year have been under the $2-million price point.

While traditional luxury enclaves including Upper Mount Royal, Britannia and Elbow Park remain highly sought after, younger move-up buyers are looking to inner city communities such as Altadore and Hillhurst that offer new infill product on generous lot sizes ranging from 60 ft. to 80 ft. frontages. Equity gains realized in recent years are driving some of the activity in the market to date, while the federal government’s recent decision to increase the cap on mortgage insurance to $1.5 million is also making it easier for buyers to enter the market. Inventory levels remain healthy at luxury price points, with more than 200 homes listed over $1.5 million, including 35 uber-luxe properties over $3 million.

Downsizing is also occurring, given that 14 per cent of the local population is now aged 65 and over. As such, many empty nesters and retirees have less use for their existing, oversized homes. Some are moving to condominium apartments while others are downsizing their homes in Calgary and buying vacation properties in BC, Arizona or California, thanks to the proximity to an international airport.

Some multi-generational trends are occurring at the top end of the market this year. Acreage properties housing a primary residence and a secondary home for occupation by adult children or older parents are drawing interest. The trend is also occurring in the city where carriage house suites or apartments over garages are added to existing homes in established neighbourhoods.

Most of the moves in the market today are needs-based and buyers at the top end don’t always incorporate market timing into their decision-making process. Calgary is home to the highest number of millionaires per capita in Canada, so luxury inventory levels tend to fluctuate as real estate trades are frequent and fluid.

Given current market realities, including the threat of tariffs, stock market volatility and the usual federal election jitters, the future remains uncertain right now. However, Calgary has experienced its fair share of adversity and challenging times and emerged stronger.  As a result, the overall and luxury markets are expected to be resilient, with home-buying activity expected to continue at a healthy pace for the remainder of the year.

Courtesy RE/MAX LLC

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape.

After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months. US inflation remains slightly above target. Economic growth in the euro zone was modest in late 2024. China’s economy has posted strong gains, supported by government policies. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth. Oil prices have been volatile and are trading below the assumptions in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian dollar is broadly unchanged against the US dollar but weaker against other currencies.

Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed. 

Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.

Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.

While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest. Against this background, and with inflation close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 25 basis points.

Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation. Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 16, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

Courtesy Bank of Canada