Calgary housing market expected to remain strong this year after record-breaking 2021

CREB® has released its 2022 housing market forecast for Calgary and surrounding areas.

According to the report, housing market activity in 2022 is expected to moderate relative to record levels of activity in 2021, while remaining stronger than historical levels.

“Despite challenges with COVID-19, we are starting to see a turnaround in our job and migration numbers, and while interest rates are expected to rise, they remain relatively low. All these factors are expected to support strong housing demand into 2022,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

“The biggest question will be whether supply can meet that demand. It will take time for housing to move out of sellers’ market conditions, so we do anticipate prices will continue to rise this year.”

Rising lending rates are expected to cool some of the demand later this year, but rates are still exceptionally low, supporting strong housing sales, especially from those who experienced increased savings and equity gains throughout the pandemic.  Lurie says economic improvements are also expected to support both job and population growth, adding new sources of demand for housing.

“Despite challenges with COVID-19, we are starting to see a turnaround in our job and migration numbers, and while interest rates are expected to rise, they remain relatively low. All these factors are expected to support strong housing demand into 2022.” - CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

During the pandemic, supply has been a struggle for many industries, including the housing market. New listings have improved, but Lurie says it has not been enough to offset high sales levels, keeping inventories relatively low and likely limiting sales growth in the market. 

As we move through 2022, Lurie says new listings in the resale market should remain relatively strong thanks to higher home prices. At the same time, the new-home sector recorded a surge in starts last year, and the completion of those starts should help add to overall supply choice in the market.

Supply levels are expected to improve relative to demand this year, according to the report. However, conditions are expected to remain relatively tight throughout the spring market, supporting further price gains. 

As the market balance gradually improves, Lurie says upward price pressure in the housing market should ease. Overall, price growth is expected to ease to four percent in 2022.

“While conditions in the housing market are expected to remain strong, there is a significant amount of uncertainty that could impact housing,” said Lurie. 

“If supply levels remain low relative to demand, we could see stronger-than-expected price growth. On the other hand, if rates rise much faster and higher than expected, it could cause a more significant pullback in sales.”

Click here for the full CREB® 2022 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

Courtesy Calgary Real Estate Board.

The year finished with nearly 10% more home sales than the previous record year of 2020

The data is in and strong December home sales crowned 2021 as the busiest year for homebuying in the 14-year history of the RE/MAX National Housing Report. According to the latest report, which measured 51 metro areas, December 2021 home sales were the second-highest for the month in report history, trailing only December 2020. In fact, there’s evidence to suggest December home transactions could have been even stronger had it not been for record-low inventory.

Contributing to the craze, the year 2021 ended with the smallest number of homes for sale in the 14-year history of the report. The 10 months with the lowest inventory in report history all occurred in 2021. Based on the rate of home sales in December 2021, the Months Supply of Inventory decreased to 1.2 compared to 1.4 in November 2021, and decreased compared to 2.0 in December 2020. For context, a six months supply indicates a market balanced equally between buyers and sellers.

The ups and downs of the housing market since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020 have proven one thing: homebuyers are resilient – and those who are able to get in the game have wasted no time. Nick Bailey, President and Chief Executive Officer of RE/MAX, LLC, thinks the hot streak is likely to continue into 2022 but is hopeful more sellers come off the fence to alleviate some of the challenges buyers have been facing for years.

“December capped a fantastic year for home sales. After a busy 2020, we expected 2021 to be even better – and it was. Buyers shrugged off all sorts of potential obstacles – high prices, record-low inventory, stiff competition for available listings – and kept things rolling the entire year.”

Adds Bailey, “The story of housing in 2021 was centred around high demand that led to a substantial increase in sales despite ultra-low supply. What’s promising for 2022 is that many of the factors which drove record sales in 2021 remain in place. Interest rates are still attractive, workplace flexibility continues, and many homeowners are sitting on a mountain of equity. If more of them become sellers, there’s ample reason to think the hot streak will continue. The past two years have proven that buyers are out there and ready to go.”

Courtesy RE/MAX Canada

City of Calgary, Jan. 4, 2022 – Thanks to exceptionally high sales in December, 2021 was a record year for home sales. Calgary sales reached 27,686 units this year, nearly 72 per cent higher than last year and over 44 per cent higher than the 10-year average.

“Concerns over inflation and rising lending rates likely created more urgency with buyers over the past few months. However, as is the case in many other cities, the supply has not kept pace with the demand, causing strong price growth,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

As of December, the unadjusted benchmark price rose by nearly one per cent over last month and was sitting over 10 per cent higher than last year’s figures. Overall, the 2021 benchmark price rose by more than eight per cent compared to last year for a total of $451,567, just shy of the annual record high set back in 2015.

We are entering 2022 with some of the tightest conditions seen in over a decade. As of December, inventory levels are nearly 25 per cent lower than long-term averages for the month. This will have an impact on our housing market as we move through 2022. More details on the housing market forecast for 2022 will be released on Jan. 25.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached With 17,038 sales in 2021, home sales remained slightly lower than the record high set in 2005. While a new record was not set, sales are still over 40 per cent higher than long-term averages and supply challenges likely prevented stronger sales this year. New listings rose, but it was not enough to offset sales, causing inventories to ease. In the detached sector, average inventory levels were over 23 per cent lower than long-term trends. With only 898 units in inventory in December, we are entering 2022 with the lowest detached inventory on record. Strong sales relative to inventory levels caused the months of supply to dip below one month, which is tighter than levels recorded in the spring market. Tightening conditions over the past several months once again weighed on prices. The detached benchmark price rose by nearly one per cent compared with last month and is nearly 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Overall, the detached sector has recorded the largest annual price gain at nearly 10 per cent, not only recovering from the 2015 annual high, but exceeding it by nearly three per cent. Semi-Detached In 2021, there were 2,571 semi-detached sales, an annual gain of 55 per cent and over 47 per cent higher than longer-term trends. Relative affordability and less supply choice in the detached sector caused many to consider semi-detached properties. However, like other property types, semi-detached sales growth outpaced new-listings growth, especially at the end of the year, causing significant declines in inventory levels and the months of supply, which has remained below two for the past three months. Tight conditions have caused further price growth, as December prices were nearly 10 per cent higher than last year. Overall, on an annual basis, semi-detached home prices improved by eight per cent, reaching a new record high. However, prices have not recovered across all districts, as the City Centre, North East and South districts have not seen full price recovery, Row Over the past few months, row properties have increased in popularity, reporting strong sales growth that has outpaced the growth in new listings. This has created much tighter conditions and is supporting stronger price growth. Inventories were not as much of a challenge earlier in the year, so the pace of price growth was not as high as the growth seen among some of the other property types during that time. However, benchmark prices rose by six per cent on an annual basis, supporting some price recovery. Despite the gains, prices remain nearly nine per cent lower than the previous high. Apartment Condominium Record sales in December were not enough to support annual record-high sales for this property type. Unlike the other property types, the apartment condominium sector has not experienced many supply challenges, as inventories this year generally remained above historical levels. However, the growth in sales was enough to help shift the market from one that favoured the buyer to one that was relatively balanced. The balanced conditions did support modest annual price growth of just over two per cent. Each district saw some improvement in price this year, varying from less than one per cent growth in the City Centre to over six per cent growth in the West district. Despite these price gains, prices are still recovering across all districts and citywide prices remain 14 per cent lower than previous highs recorded in 2014.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

December sales reached record levels despite further reduction in new listings. The strong sales have caused inventory levels to drop to a mere 82 units, which is the lowest they’ve been since 2005. Overall, Airdrie recorded a record 2,299 sales this year. This is 78 per cent higher than activity recorded over the past 10 years and is 36 per cent higher than the previous record set in 2014.

Airdrie’s strong growth in housing demand could be related to the relative affordability of detached homes there compared to Calgary and less concern among consumers over commute times, as some companies shift toward hybrid work options. Bringing on new supply has been a challenge in Airdrie, and this has driven some significant price gains in the city. Overall, annual benchmark prices hit a new record at $380,867 in 2021, nearly 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels and two per cent higher than the previous annual record.

Cochrane

Despite persistently low levels of new listings relative to sales, Cochrane’s sales reached record levels in 2021. However, the sales-to-new-listings ratio has exceeded 100 per cent for four of the past six months, causing inventories to drop to the lowest levels seen in over a decade.

This has caused further tightening in the market, as the months of supply has remained below one month over the past two months. The exceptionally tight conditions, especially over the past few months, have caused further price gains. As of December, the benchmark price was nearly 10 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Overall, on an annual basis, the benchmark price has increased by seven per cent, reflecting a new record high for the town.

Okotoks

Despite persistent challenges with supply levels, sales in Okotoks reached record levels in 2021. However, the strong sales weighed on inventory levels, which on average eased by 41 per cent this year and remain over 50 per cent lower than what the market typically has available.

Easing inventory and strong sales left the months of supply at record-low levels in December with less than one month of supply. With sellers’ market conditions throughout the year, there have been some significant gains in prices. On an annual basis, the benchmark price hit a new record high at $474,842, which is an annual gain of nearly nine per cent.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.