The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) has released its Q3 2023 housing market report, providing a comprehensive overview of the real estate landscape in the City of Calgary and surrounding areas. The report showcases trends in sales and pricing, offering valuable insights for industry professionals and prospective homebuyers and sellers.

“Sales activity in the Calgary market has followed expectations, with declines earlier in the year offsetting gains in the second half,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Thanks to persistent supply challenges, the market has favoured sellers, resulting in stronger-than-expected price growth. As we move into 2024, we expect to see better supply-demand balances, but given the strong migration levels over the past two years, supply adjustments will take time to support further price gains.”

Higher interest rates and inflation levels are expected to weigh on consumer spending and business investment, slowing economic growth in 2024. However, thanks to higher commodity prices and migration levels, economic activity in Alberta is expected to outpace national growth levels.

Supply challenges impacted both sales and prices in the Calgary market last year. As we move into 2024, a rise in new listings and an improved number of starts are projected to offer more supply choices; this, along with population gains and a stable employment market, is expected to support stronger sales this year. And as we shift toward more balanced conditions, the pace of price growth is expected to slow from the high levels reported in 2023.

While both sales and prices are expected to rise in 2024, there is considerable risk to the outlook. Shifts in global growth could impact commodity prices and, ultimately, our economic growth, employment, and migration. Migration and employment shifts will influence the path to housing market balance and the rate of price growth experienced in our city.

For the full report, please download CREB®’s Q3 2023 Calgary & Region Quarterly Update Report here.

Courtesy CREB®

October sales activity slowed over the last month in alignment with typical seasonal patterns. However, with 2,171 sales, levels were 17 percent higher than last year and amongst the highest levels reported for October. Sales activity has been boosted mainly through gains in apartment condominium sales as consumers seek affordable housing options during this period of high interest rates.

New listings also improved this month compared to last year, reaching 2,684 units, reflecting the highest October levels reported since 2015. Despite the gain, relatively strong sales prevented any significant shift in inventory levels, which remain over 40 percent lower than levels traditionally available in October.

“Despite some recent improvements in new listings, supply levels remain challenging in our market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. It will take some time to see a shift toward more balanced conditions and ultimately more price stability.”

With a months of supply of one and a half months, we continue to experience upward pressure on home prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in October reached $571,600, a gain over last month and nearly 10 percent higher than last October.

Detached

Both sales and new listings improved over levels reported last October. However, with 1,302 new listings this month and 976 sales, inventory levels slowed over the last month. Inventory levels remain the lowest ever reported for October. Inventory levels have declined for all homes priced below $700,000, leaving conditions exceptionally tight for lower-priced homes. The only area where conditions are not as tight as last year is for homes priced above $1,00,000, where the months-of-supply has risen to 4.3 months.

Persistently tight conditions continue to cause further price gains in the detached market. As of October, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $697,600, a slight increase over last month and 12 percent higher than last October. Prices trended up over the last month across every district except the South East. Year-to-date benchmark prices have increased the most in the North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached

New listings in October improved over the low levels reported last year. However, with 235 new listings and 179 sales, the sales to new listings ratio remained relatively high at 76 percent, preventing any significant change in the inventory levels. Inventory levels are nearly half the levels traditionally seen in October and have not been this low since October 2005.

Persistently tight conditions have continued to support price growth. In October, the unadjusted benchmark price increased over the last month, reaching $628,700, a year-over-year gain of 13 percent. Prices trended up over September across most districts, with the most significant monthly gain occurring in the City Centre district. Like the detached sector year-to-date, the highest price growth has happened in the most affordable districts of the North East and East.

Row

The 420 new listings this month were met with 375 sales, keeping the sales-to-new listings ratio high at 89 percent and preventing a significant shift in inventory levels. Row inventory levels have not been this low since October 2005. At the same time, October sales reached a record high for the month, keeping the months of supply low at one month.

Persistently tight market conditions have supported further gains in prices this month. In October, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $425,200, a monthly gain of over one percent and nearly 19 percent higher than last October. Prices have risen across most districts, but this month, the largest monthly gain occurred in the City Centre, which has also seen the lowest year-to-date price growth compared to the other districts.

Apartment Condominium

Record high sales in October were possible thanks to the steep gain in new listings.   However, with 727 new listings and 641 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained high at 88 percent, and inventories continued to trend down. The decline in inventory levels has been driven mostly by condos priced below $300,000, which now represent only 38 percent of all inventory, a significant decline compared to the 53 percent reported last year.

Persistent seller market conditions have driven much of the recent gains in prices. The unadjusted October benchmark price reached $316,600 in October, a monthly gain of over one percent and a year-over-year increase of 16 percent. Year-to-date price gains have occurred across every district in the city, with some of the largest gains arising in the lower-priced North East and East districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales in the city eased in October, contributing to the year-to-date decline of 29 percent. Much of the decline has been driven by detached home sales. Limited supply choice in the lower price ranges has contributed to some steep drop in home sales priced below $500,000. While Inventory levels have improved over last year's low levels, the growth was driven by homes priced above $500,000.

While adjustments in both sales and inventory levels did cause the months of supply to trend up over the last month, with less than two months of supply, conditions remain tight, supporting further price gains. In October, the benchmark price rose over the last month, reaching $521,400, a year-over-year gain of nearly 10 percent.

Cochrane

New listings improved over last month's and last year’s levels, likely supporting some of the monthly gains in sales. Nonetheless, year-to-date sales have eased by nearly 22 percent as sales have eased across all property types. While sales have slowed, levels remain far higher than long-term trends for the town. Despite the monthly improvement in new listings, inventory levels were lower than last year and remain well below long-term trends.

Persistently tight market conditions supported further price growth this month. In October, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $539,900, a monthly gain of over one percent and a year-over-year increase of seven percent. Price growth has occurred across all property types, with the largest year-over-year gains occurring in the apartment condominium sector. 

Okotoks

The 48 new listings in October were met with 41 sales, keeping the sales-to-new listings ratio high at 85 percent and preventing any adjustments to the exceptionally low inventory levels. Low inventory levels have likely prevented stronger sales activity, as year-to-date sales have declined by 26 percent, primarily due to pullbacks in detached activity.

Despite some price adjustments over the last few months, the unadjusted benchmark price rose slightly over September and was over nine percent higher than last October. Prices have increased across all property types, but the year-over-year gains have been highest for detached and semi-detached homes.

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Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Courtesy of the Calgary Real Estate Board

The Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight lending rate at 5%.

In its latest scheduled interest rate announcement on October 25, 2023, the Bank cited growing evidence of a slowdown in economic activity due to past interest rate increases, which were also helping to relieve inflation. The Bank noted reduced consumption and resale housing activity as contributing factors to weaker economic activity, but that labour market conditions were still tight.

In its Monetary Policy Report, the Bank also highlighted forest fires and the federal public sector strike as weighing on the economy earlier this year. The Bank said it expects economic growth to remain subdued until late 2024, with the Canadian economy set to grow only 0.9% in 2024 compared with 1.2% this year before picking up to 2.5% in 2025.

Given the fluctuations in recent months, the Bank has made note of the volatility in inflation while also citing diverging trends in components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While some goods and food inflation has come down, costs relating to shelter are still growing at strong rates and the Bank’s own measure of core inflation is not showing signs of slowing. Although inflation is still expected to return to the Bank’s 2% target in 2025, near-term inflation will be anticipated to run higher due to recent increases in energy prices and other components of core inflation.

The Bank was relieved to see that higher interest rates are having their intended effect on spending and price growth but remains concerned about inflation progressing back to its target range at a slower pace. Although the policy rate was held at 5%, it’s still prepared to hike rates further if necessary.

The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled interest rate announcement will be on December 6, 2023. The next Monetary Policy Report will be published on January 24, 2024.