Confidence continues in the Canadian real estate market, with the inter-provincial relocation trend likely to remain strong in 2022

- Migration between provinces is expected to continue in 2022, potentially impacting local Canadian real estate conditions, according to 53 percent of RE/MAX brokers (20 out of 38)
- 49 percent of Canadians believe the housing market will remain steady in 2022 and view real estate as one of the best investment options over the next year
- Some of the highest outlooks are anticipated for Atlantic Canada, with Moncton and Halifax projecting average residential sales prices to increase by 20 percent and 16 percent respectively in 2022
- 97 percent of regions (37 out of 38) surveyed are likely to remain seller’s markets in 2022

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, December 1, 2021 – RE/MAX is anticipating steady price growth across the Canadian real estate market in 2022, with inter-provincial migration continuing to be a key driver of housing activity in many regions, based on surveys of RE/MAX brokers and agents, as reflected in the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report. The ongoing housing supply shortage is likely to continue, putting upward pressure on prices. As a result of these factors, RE/MAX Canada estimates a 9.2-per-cent increase in average residential sales prices across the country*.

“Based on feedback from our brokers and agents, the inter-provincial relocation trend that we began to see in the summer of 2020 still remains very strong and is expected to continue into 2022,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Less-dense cities and neighbourhoods offer buyers the prospect of greater affordability, along with liveability factors such as more space. In order for these regions to retain these appealing qualities and their relative market balance, housing supply needs to be added. Without more homes and in the face of rising demand, there’s potential for conditions in these regions to shift further.”

Despite the global pandemic, many Canadians still feel confident in the real estate market. According to a Leger survey conducted on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 49 percent of respondents believe Canadian real estate will remain one of their best investment options in 2022 (59 percent of homeowners vs. 34 percent non-homeowners which included renters, those not looking to buy, and those currently looking to purchase). Additionally, 49 percent of respondents are confident the Canadian real estate market will remain steady next year.

“Canadians recognize the value and investment potential in their homes. However, market challenges such as rising prices and limited supply have impacted local markets from coast-to-coast, causing angst this past year among those looking to get into the market and those hoping to move up in it,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Despite this, it’s encouraging to see that many are feeling confident in the housing market in 2022 and view Canadian real estate as a solid investment.”

2022 REGIONAL CANADIAN REAL ESTATE INSIGHTS

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market in 2021 and share their estimated outlook for 2022. Based on their insights, 97 percent of Canadian real estate markets are expected to favour sellers, impacted by limited housing supply and high demand.

WESTERN CANADA

The Calgary and Edmonton markets shifted from balanced conditions in 2020 to seller’s markets in 2021, which brokers and agents in the region expect to continue into 2022. This is attributed to heightened demand prompted by the inter-provincial migration trend that took place throughout 2021, which saw many homebuyers from Ontario and British Columbia driving demand high, while supply remained low.

In addition to an increase in out-of-province buyers flocking to Edmonton, the region has also welcomed investors who found themselves priced out of other markets. RBC’s provincial outlook for Alberta puts this province ahead of all others in terms of economic growth in 2022, which should bode well for homebuyers and investors alike 2022.

Regions such as Victoria, Nanaimo, Regina and Kelowna also experienced an influx of buyers in search of larger properties and greater affordability, which is likely to continue pushing demand and prices up in 2022. This trend has notably increased demand for single-family detached homes and in some regions, condos as well, which may continue in 2022.

Despite some buyers choosing to move away from urban centres such as Vancouver/Greater Vancouver in favour of suburban areas within British Columbia, or leaving the province entirely, Vancouver/Greater Vancouver has remained a quality place to live. The region continues to draw interest from Canadian and international buyers, a trend that is likely to grow next year, in tandem with rising immigration. Vancouver/Greater Vancouver is expected to remain a seller’s market in 2022, providing inventory stays tight and current demand continues, according to a RE/MAX broker in Greater Vancouver Area.

Winnipeg is anticipated to continue to be a seller’s market in 2022. Young couples enjoying the freedom to work from home have been driving much of the demand in the region, especially for one- and two-story detached homes. The appeal of Winnipeg has had less to do with affordability, and more with lifestyle shifts such as hybrid working environments.

ONTARIO

According to the RE/MAX broker network in Ontario, market activity across the province is anticipated to remain steady in 2022, with continued average price growth, although at widely varying degrees. RE/MAX brokers anticipate average sale price increases in smaller markets such as North Bay (four percent); Sudbury (five percent); Thunder Bay (10 percent); Collingwood/Georgian Bay (10 percent); and Muskoka (20 pecent), where the move-over trend has remained strong. Meanwhile, in larger markets within the province, there’s a possibility that more immigration could weigh on supply levels and prices, including Ottawa (five percent); Durham (seven percent); Brampton (eight percent); Toronto (10 percent); Mississauga (14 percent).

When it comes to price appreciation year-over-year, there are a few regions that stood out in 2021 for their exponential increases across all property types, including Brampton, which rose from $869,107 in 2020 to $1,085,417 in 2021 (25 per cent); Durham from $706,818 in 2020 to $914,48 in 2021 (29 per cent); and London from $487,500 in 2020 to $633,700 in 2021 (30 per cent). In comparison, Toronto experienced a modest seven-per-cent increase year-over-year ($986,085 in 2020 to $1,054,922 in 2021).

ATLANTIC CANADA

All of Atlantic Canada’s regions analyzed are currently seller’s markets, with the potential for average sale prices to increase between five to 20 percent in 2022, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents. Larger urban centres including Moncton, Fredericton, Saint John, Halifax, Charlottetown and St. John’s have all experienced an influx of out-of-province buyers, especially from Ontario, moving to the region in search of greater affordability agnd liveability.

Due to this spike in demand, much of the region has experienced increasing competition, especially among single-family detached homes and condos in some cities. There’s a possibility that this may further be amplified as immigration continues to grow in the region.

According to RE/MAX brokers and agents in the region, new construction is anticipated to remain strong into 2022, although construction activity may be dampened by ongoing supply shortages and delays in permits related to the pandemic backlog.

Seller’s market conditions are expected to prevail across the region in 2022, with the exception of Charlottetown and Southern Nova Scotia, which may return more to a balanced state as activity gradually begins to decrease.

These factors have led to some of the highest price outlooks in the country, with Halifax and Moncton projecting estimated average residential sales price to increase by 16, and 20 percent respectively.

Additional findings from the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report

- Two-in-five Canadians trust their agent to advise them during the current real estate landscape (43 percent)
- 23 percent of Canadians now have a greater desire to build their own home or buy pre-construction
- 26 percent of Canadians have the desire to purchase a home while mortgage rates remain low
- 62 percent of Canadians currently own a home. This is higher among those ages 35+ (70 percent) compared with Millennials, ages 18-34 (42 percent)

- The majority of Canadians (72 percent) said rising home prices did not impact their purchasing decisions in 2021.

About the 2022 Housing Market Outlook Report

 

The 2022 RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted by the number of transactions in each region.

*2020 average residential sale price numbers were full-year, 2021 were from January 2021 – October 31, 2022.

Download the Full Report Here

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Courtesy RE/MAX Canada

Driven by growth in demand for all property types, there were 2,110 sales in November, just shy of the record for the month set in 2005.

“Lending rates are expected to increase next year, which has created a sense of urgency among purchasers who want to get into the housing market before rates rise,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“At the same time, supply levels have struggled to keep pace, causing tight conditions and additional price gains.”

New listings in November totalled 1,989 units, which was fewer than the number of sales this month. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of over 100 per cent, inventory levels dropped to 3,922 units and the months of supply dipped below two months.

It is not unusual to see new listings and inventories trend down at this time of year, but slower sales are also typical. Instead, sales have remained at roughly the same levels seen since August.

Persistent demand and slow supply reaction caused the benchmark price to trend up this month to $461,000, an increase compared with last month and nearly nine per cent higher than levels recorded last year.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached Conditions in the detached home sector continued to tighten in November, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio that pushed up to 118 per cent and the months of supply dropping to 1.2 months. These are levels not seen since the spring. More than half of sales occurred in the $400,000 – $600,000 price range, but the largest sales gains occurred for properties price above $600,000. This is, in part, related to more supply choice in the upper end of the market compared with the lower end. On a year-to-date basis, homes priced above $600,000 now reflect nearly 31 per cent of all sales, far higher than the 23 per cent recorded last year. Benchmark prices rose to $542,600, a new monthly record and nearly 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Year-over-year price gains have occurred in every district, with the strongest growth occurring in the West, where gains exceeded 13 per cent. The City Centre remains the only district where prices remain below 2014 highs. Semi-Detached Another record-high month of sales pushed year-to-date sales to 2,436 units. This is not only a year-to-date record, but also 13 per cent higher than the annual record set in 2014. With less supply choice in the detached sector, many buyers have shifted their focus to semi-detached homes. However, like the detached sector, semi-detached supply levels have been struggling to keep up, as the months of supply dipped below two months in November. So far this year, most sales have occurred in the $300,000 – $400,000 range, but activity has increased at the upper end of the market, where semi-detached homes priced above $700,000 now reflect more than 20 per cent of all sales. This is a significant shift compared to last year, where this segment represented only 15 per cent of semi-detached sales. Thanks to gains in all districts, the semi-detached benchmark price rose to $429,800, which is nearly nine per cent higher than last year. On a year-to-date basis, prices have recovered in all districts except the City Centre, North East and South. Row Row properties have not faced the same supply challenges as semi-detached properties so far this year. As a result, the row sector has seen the largest growth in sales, which have already surpassed the annual record high. Row properties often offer a more affordable alternative to detached homes for consumers who are looking for more space than an apartment condominium. Nearly 83 per cent of all sales that occurred in this sector were priced below $400,000. While row supply levels have not been as tight as in the detached or semi-detached sectors, strong demand has caused inventories to fall. This is contributing to tighter market conditions in this segment as well. With less supply/demand pressures for this property type, prices have not experienced the same gains seen among detached or semi-detached homes. On a year-to-date basis, the benchmark price was six per cent higher than last year, but it remains lower than previous highs set in 2015. Apartment Condominium The apartment condominium sector recorded another month of strong growth, contributing to year-to-date sales of 3,834. Sales remain far from record highs, but this is still the highest level of activity seen since 2014. Improving sales led to slightly tighter conditions in this market, but inventory levels were high relative to historical levels, making this segment an outlier compared with the other property types. Supply challenges have not been as prevalent for apartment condominiums, so prices growth and recovery in the sector have remained far lower than the other property types. However, on a year-to-date basis, prices have improved by more than two per cent in a reversal of the steady annual decline recorded since 2015.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie November sales reached record levels despite limited inventory in the market. There were only 106 new listings this month compared with 144 sales, driving the sales-to-new-listings ratio up to 136 per cent. This caused inventories to fall to 137 units and the months of supply to drop below one month. Airdrie has faced sellers’ market conditions since the middle of last year and this has had a significant impact on prices. On a year-to-date basis, benchmark prices have risen by nearly 12 per cent, with the strongest gains occurring in the detached sector. Cochrane Like Airdrie, Cochrane experienced another record month of sales in November. Year-to-date sales reached 1,163 units, which is double the long-term average for the town. Like many other areas, Cochrane’s housing supply is struggling to keep up with demand. New listings eased this month, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio above 146 per cent, and inventories fell to 77 units. This caused the month of supply to drop below one month, the lowest ever recorded for November. Persistently tight conditions continue to impact prices. On a year-to-date basis, prices have risen by nearly seven per cent, with gains recorded for every property type. Okotoks New listings were higher this month than last year’s levels, but they could not keep pace with sales. The sales-to-new-listings ratio remained above 100 per cent for the second month in a row, causing further declines in inventory levels and the months of supply. Persistently strong demand and easing supply levels have ensured the market continues to favour the seller. This has resulted in upward pressure on prices. Driven by strong gains in the detached sector, prices have improved by nearly nine per cent on a year-to-date basis.

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