The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.

The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.

Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.

As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.

Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.

In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.

In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.

Courtesy The Bank of Canada

JUNE 2023 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

July 4, 2023

Another record-high month for Calgary

The housing market in Calgary witnessed a surge in apartment condominium sales, setting a new total residential record with 3,146 sales achieved in June. Although year-to-date sales are currently 23 percent lower than last year, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Notably, there has been a positive trend in new listings, providing relief and a monthly increase in inventory levels. However, despite these improvements, the inventory for June stood at 3,458 units, marking a decline of over 36 percent from last year and reaching the lowest levels for June in nearly two decades.

“The demand for housing remains robust, bolstered by a healthy labour market and increased migration levels, which helps offset the impact of higher lending rates,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Although we have seen some recent improvements in new listings, particularly for apartment condominiums, it is not enough to cause any substantial change from the low inventory situation in our city. While new home starts are on the rise, it will take time to observe their impact on supply.”

With a supply of just over one month, the current market conditions continue to favour sellers, placing upward pressure on home prices. In June, the total residential benchmark price reached $564,700, representing a monthly unadjusted gain of one percent and four percent higher than last year's levels.

Detached

A monthly gain in new listings supported a monthly increase in inventory levels. However, with only 1,651 units available in June, levels hit a new record low for the month. Inventories declined across most price ranges, but the steepest declines occurred in homes priced below $600,000. Of all the inventory in June, only 24 per cent was priced below $600,000, a significant drop from last year, where that market segment represented 45 per cent of the supply.

Limited inventory, especially in the lower price ranges, ensured that the market continued to favour the seller, driving further gains in home prices. As of June, the benchmark price reached $685,100, an unadjusted monthly gain of nearly two per cent and a year-over-year increase of six per cent. Year-over-year gains were the highest in the most affordable North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached

New listings in June improved, helping support modest monthly gains in inventory levels. However, with 268 units in inventory and 240 sales, the months of supply remained exceptionally tight at just over one month. The persistently tight market conditions have contributed to further price gains for this property type. As of June, the benchmark price reached $613,100, over two per cent higher than last month and nearly six per cent higher than levels reported in the previous year at this time.

Persistently tight conditions across all districts supported price growth. Year-over-year price growth ranged from a low of 4.5 per cent in the city centre to a high of 17 per cent in the East district. 

Row

Both sales and new listings trended up over the levels reported last month. Still, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 86 per cent and months of inventory below one month, conditions continued to favour the seller placing upward pressure on home prices.

In June, the benchmark price reached $400,000, over two per cent higher than last month and over 11 per cent higher than last year. Prices improved across all districts in the city, with the most significant monthly gains occurring in the East, North East and South districts. These districts have also reported year-over-year price gains of nearly 20 per cent.

Apartment Condominium

Sales in June reached 857 units, 48 per cent higher than last year. Over the past three months, sales growth was enough to cause year-to-date sales to rise by 11 per cent over last year. The gain in sales was possible thanks to improving new listings. However, persistently strong demand for affordable product has prevented inventories from improving. In June, inventory levels reached 1,116 units, the lowest level for the month reported since June 2013.

Persistently tight conditions contributed to the sixth consecutive month where prices rose. As of June, the benchmark price reached $303,200, nearly two per cent higher than last month and 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels. While unadjusted prices have hit a new record high, prices remain below the peak in the City Centre, North East and East districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

A pullback in new listings contributed to slower sales activity this month. With 245 new listings and 221 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained elevated at 90 per cent. This also prevented any significant shift in the inventory situation, keeping the months of supply below one month.

As market conditions continue favouring the seller, Airdrie reports further gains in home prices. As of June, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $511,100, representing a new record high for the city. Prices have risen across all property types, with the largest gains occurring in the row and apartment condominium sectors.

Cochrane

Sales activity in June eased, contributing to the year-to-date decline of 30 per cent. While the decline seems significant, levels are still far higher than any sales level reported before the pandemic. Like other areas, Cochrane is struggling with low inventory levels as significant declines in new listings limit consumers' choices.

Persistently tight market conditions have contributed to further gains in home prices. As of June, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $526,500, nearly two per cent higher than last month’s and last year’s levels. This also reflects a new record high price for the town. 

Okotoks

With 87 sales and 84 new listings, the sales to new listings ratio once again pushed above 100 per cent. This caused further inventory declines, and the months of supply dropped to 0.7 months, the lowest level ever reported for June.

The persistently tight conditions caused prices to rise again in June. The unadjusted benchmark price reached a record high of $585,300, reflecting a two per gain over last month and six per cent higher than last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.