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Will Canada’s foreign buyer ban move the needle commencing January 1 2023


It still might not be widely known, even amongst Canadian realtors, but Canada’s two-year ban on foreign investors purchasing residential property comes into effect on Jan. 1, 2023.


The Parliament of Canada passed legislation – the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act on June 23, 2022 – and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says, “it’s anticipated that this will help reduce foreign money coming into Canada to buy residential real estate.”


But Elton Ash, executive vice-president, Re/Max Canada, believes the vast majority of people are still not aware of this.


“I brought it up (recently) at our internal… regional development group…and they all looked at me like, ‘what are you talking about?’,” says Ash.


“I believe, as the Canadian Real Estate Association believes, it’s going to be a similar experience to what happened in British Columbia when the foreign buyer’s tax was implemented in 2016 and then the speculation and vacancy tax was introduced in 2018. It really had a negligible effect.”


Ash said foreign owners just swallowed the cost at the time, and in the end, those measures had no effect on curbing foreign ownership. He said research indicated that it was around 2 to 3 per cent of the total market for Vancouver.


“It seemed draconian to bring in this tax when it was such a small part of the market,” added Ash. “Now we look at it coming across Canada.


“I think there’s a bigger issue with the reputation of Canada accepting immigrants, accepting people coming into this country and especially when a lot of our immigration policy is tied to wealth. The wealthier an immigrant is, the easier it is to get into the country . . . part of that is buying a home. Now the way that the act has been passed, it’s a prohibition. This isn’t a tax. It’s a prohibition on buying property in Canada.


“So I think it does more damage to Canada’s reputation as a welcoming country around the world than anything else.”


Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage, said there has been a long tradition in Canadian politics at both the provincial and federal levels of looking to foreign investors as a problem for housing in this country.


“It’s mostly unfounded,” said Soper, adding that research has indicated that the number of transactions involving foreign buyers who didn’t intend to live in a Canadian property was minimal and never enough to move the needle on affordability. 


“But it’s an easy target. It’s easy to point to foreigners and say they’re the challenge and then put into place legislation, whether it’s taxes or a more draconian outright ban and say that’s the problem and we’re taking action,” Soper added. “It’s much harder to address the real problem, which is a grave shortage of housing in this country, and get municipalities working with provinces working with the federal government to fix that problem. That’s a big complex challenge on the same scale as working to improve our health care system.


“Putting a ban or a tax on foreigners, most of whom have very limited voice in Canadian politics, is an easy target.”


Soper said it’s also worth noting that legislation was enacted at a time when markets were exploding, and inventory levels were at all-time lows. 


“The good news about this legislation is that it’s not permanent, which would have been really problematic, and probably encouraged challenges under free trade agreements as unlawful. So a two-year ban, a temporary ban, it will go quickly. It may not be worth the effort for someone who feels that Canada is breaking trade law,” he said.


“The second thing that makes it less concerning for me in practical terms is that it doesn’t include recreational property. Canadians are the largest buyers of recreational property in the United States, for example. They’re also significant investors in places like Latin America. They like to own recreational property, and it would have been unconscionable if we banned Americans from buying a cabin or a cottage in Canada when we wanted to buy exactly the same thing in Arizona or Florida. So they were smart enough to carve that out and not include that as part of the ban.”


Linda Kristal, vice-president of advocacy, CREA, said the association has reached out to realtors to inform them of the changes and worked with provincial associations to make sure they are aware of the legislation.


“First and foremost, for a long time, we’ve been arguing that the federal government needs to get serious about supply. Focus on supply. And measures that tinker around the margins are beside the point when we’re looking at the number of units that are short currently in this country. You know, roofs over heads,” Kristal said.


“Also, members have expressed concerns, and we’re concerned; Canada is certainly a country that has built its reputation on being open to the world, welcoming the world, and this is certainly going to put that reputation into question.”


Complements of the Real Estate Magazine and author Mario Toneguzzi.

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Sales remain stronger than pre-covid levels


OCTOBER HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Nov. 1, 2022

                                 

October sales eased compared to last year’s levels, mostly due to slower activity in the detached sector.


However, with 1,857 sales this month, levels are still stronger than long-term trends and activity reported prior to the pandemic. Year-to-date sales have reached 26,823 and with only two months to go, 2022 will likely post a record year in terms of sales.


“Calgary hasn’t seen the same degree of pullback in housing sales like other parts of Canada, thanks to persistently strong demand for our higher density product,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While our city is not immune to the impact that inflation and higher rates are having, strong employment growth, positive migration flows and a stronger commodity market are helping offset some of that impact.”


New listings also trended down this month causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 85 per cent and inventories to trend down. Much of the inventory decline has been driven by product priced below $500,000.


While conditions are not as tight as what was seen earlier in the year, with only two months of supply, conditions remain tighter than historical levels. We are also seeing divergent trends in the market with conditions continuing to favour the seller in the lower-price ranges and shifting to more balanced conditions in the upper-price ranges.


As of October, prices have eased by four per cent relative to the highs reached in May. This is considered a relatively small adjustment when considering price movements in other large cities. It is also important to note that the October benchmark price is still nearly 10 per cent higher than levels reported last year.


Detached


Sales growth in the over $700,000 price range this month were not enough to offset the declines in the lower-price ranges, causing detached sales to ease by over 29 per cent compared to last year. Limited supply growth in the lower-price ranges continue to keep conditions exceptionally tight for lower-priced detached homes.


In October, inventory levels for detached homes were under 2,000 units, nearly 35 per cent lower than typical levels reported for the month. Moreover, over 42 per cent of the inventory falls in the upper-price ranges of the market. This is likely creating a situation where pricing trends will vary depending on price range.


Overall, detached prices did trend down relative to last month and peak levels in May but remain nearly 12 per cent higher than levels reported last October. The strongest year-over-year price gains have occurred in the North and South East districts.


Semi-Detached


While sales remain lower than last year’s levels in October, recent pullbacks have not offset gains from earlier in the year and year-to-date sales improved by nearly three per cent. A pullback in new listings relative to sales caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to push above 80 per cent this month and inventories to ease, leaving the months of supply just over two months.


The benchmark price, while easing slightly compared to last month, remained over nine per cent higher than last year’s levels. Year-over-year price gains have varied from a low of nearly eight per cent in the City Centre to a high of 16 per cent in the North district.


Row


Row sales continue to rise relative to last year supporting a year-to-date gain of nearly 42 per cent. At the same time, new listings this month eased ensuring that the sales-to-new-listings ratio remain exceptionally tight at 106 per cent. Falling inventories and improving sales have ensured this market continues to favour the seller with less than two months of supply. This has also prevented the same adjustment in price.


As of October, the benchmark price was $361,200, less than one per cent lower than the peak achieved in June of this year. Overall, prices remained nearly 15 per cent higher than last year’s levels. The strongest price gains occurred in the South East, North East and North districts.


Apartment Condominium


Apartment sales continue to rise over levels reported last year contributing to the year-to-date increase of over 56 per cent. Improving sales were also met with gains in new listings, but as the growth in sales outpaced the new listings activity, inventory levels continue to trend down. As of October, the months of supply remained just below three months, the lowest level recorded in October since 2013.


In October, the benchmark price was $277,800, similar to last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Some of the strongest price gains have occurred in areas outside of the City Centre. Despite persistent price growth, overall prices remain nine per cent below previous highs set back in 2014.

 


REGIONAL MARKET FACTS


Airdrie


Easing sales over the past several months have not been enough to offset earlier gains as year-to-date sales reached 2,269 units, over 11 per cent higher than last year and on pace to hit a new record high. The growth in sales was possible thanks to a boost in new listings this year. However, the gains in new listings did little to impact inventory levels which remained well below levels traditionally seen in the market in October.


While conditions are not as tight as they were earlier in the year, the months of supply remained exceptionally tight at one and a half months. Despite persistently tight conditions, prices have trended lower from the earlier highs. Airdrie hit a record high price back in April of this year at $510,700, prices have since fallen by six per cent since then yet remain over 14 per cent higher than levels reported last year.


Cochrane


A pullback in new listings relative to sales activity caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to push up to 90 per cent once again, causing inventories to trend down relative to last month. While overall inventories still remain higher than the exceptionally low levels seen last year, levels are still well below what is typically seen in the market.


While prices have eased off recent highs, at a benchmark price of $507,000, prices remain over 16 per cent higher than last years levels. Price growth has been mostly driven by the detached and semi-detached sector which have reported year-over-year gains exceeding 18 per cent.


Okotoks


A pullback in new listings likely weighed on sales this month as the sales-to-new-listings ratio pushed above 100 per cent causing inventories to remain exceptionally low for October. While conditions are still not as tight as they were earlier in the year, the shift this month did little to support more balanced conditions.

 

Persistently tight conditions did slow the pace of adjustment in prices as the benchmark price was $537,800 in October. While prices have eased from the high reported in May, they remain over 11 per cent higher than last years levels.  


Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.


Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

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