The changes came in response to widespread concerns over housing affordability

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has announced several changes to the “Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act”, which came into effect on January 1.

The ban forbids any direct or indirect purchase of residential property by non-Canadians for a two-year period.

CMHC said that it made some amendments in response to widespread concerns over housing affordability, in particular the expansion of “exceptions to allow non-Canadians to purchase a residential property in certain circumstances.”

The revisions now allow more work permit holders to purchase a home they can live in while working in Canada.

“Work permit holders are eligible if they have 183 days or more of validity remaining on their work permit or work authorization at the time of purchase, and they have not purchased more than one residential property,” CMHC said. “The current provisions on tax filings and previous work experience in Canada are being repealed.”

The revisions also repealed the prohibition on land zoned for residential and mixed purposes.

“Vacant land zoned for residential and mixed-use can now be purchased by non-Canadians and used for any purpose by the purchaser, including residential development,” CMHC said.

An exception for development has been included, allowing non-Canadians to purchase residential property for the purposes of development.

“The amendments also extend the exception currently applicable to publicly traded corporations under the Act, to publicly traded entities formed under the laws of Canada or a province and controlled by a non-Canadian,” CMHC said.

Additionally, the changes increased the threshold of foreign control for corporations investing in Canadian housing.

“With regards to privately held corporations or privately held entities formed under the laws of Canada or a province and controlled by a non-Canadian, the control threshold has increased from 3% to 10%,” CMHC said. “This aligns with the definition of ‘specified Canadian Corporation’ in the Underused Housing Tax Act.”

The changes came into force on March 27.

“These amendments will allow newcomers to put down roots in Canada through home ownership and businesses to create jobs and build homes by adding to the housing supply in Canadian cities,” said Ahmed Hussen, Minister of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion. “These amendments strike the right balance in ensuring that housing is used to house those living in Canada, rather than a speculative investment by foreign investors.”

2022 proved to be a rocky year for Canadian real estate. Between a looming recession, rising interest rates and challenges around capital availability, homebuyers and sellers from coast to coast experienced disruption. Yet with a trend towards cooling prices and tighter monetary policies set to slow the pace and pressure of recent years, the outlook for 2023 is one of both hope and caution.

This work explores the cultural context and influential trends set to shape the real estate and housing landscape in Canada in the year ahead. Through six key themes, we explore how people’s attitudes and values toward buying, owning, and selling homes are shifting and what these themes mean for real estate agents.

Click here for the full report

Courtesy RE/MAX Canada

The RE/MAX International conference took place last week in Las Vegas, the Viani Real Estate Group was honoured to be recognized among some of the top-producing REALTORS® in the entire RE/MAX network. 

The Viani Real Estate Group helped over 125 friends, families, businesses and investors achieve their real estate goals in 2022. Through the diverse skill set of our group, we were able to assist clients with their residential, commercial and rural needs. 

Thank you to all of our clients, those who referred clients to us and to our families for their continued support, without each of you we could not achieve such success.

Contact us today to achieve your real estate goals, put our experience to work for you.

Best Wishes
www.vianigroup.com
Viani | Lang | Kushner | Cheema | Keogh

FEBRUARY HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

March 1, 2023

Consistent with typical seasonal behavior sales, new listings and inventory levels all trended up compared to last month. However, with 1,740 sales and 2,389 new listings, inventory levels improved only slightly over the last month and remained amongst the lowest February levels seen since 2006.

“While higher lending rates are impacting sales activity as expected, we are seeing a stronger pullback in new listings, keeping supply levels low and supporting some stronger-than-expected monthly price gains,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Prices are still below the May 2022 peak and it is still early in the year. However, if we do not see a shift in supply, we could see further upward pressure on prices over the near term.”

Both sales and new listings declined over last year’s record high for the month. While sales activity remained stronger than long-term trends and levels reported throughout the 2015 to 2020 period, new listings fell below long-term trends.

With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 73 per cent and a months of supply of under two months, the market has struggled to move into balanced territory causing further upward pressure on home prices. The unadjusted benchmark price increased by nearly two per cent over January levels and last year’s prices.

Detached

Both sales and new listings reported significant year-over-year declines over last year’s record high. While the seasonal monthly gain did see inventories move up over the last two months, levels are still amongst the lowest seen in February, and the months of supply fell below two months.

Further tightening conditions did cause the unadjusted benchmark prices to rise over last month’s levels, but at a price of $635,900, it is still below the peak reported in May 2022. While supply continues to remain a challenge relative to demand for lower-priced homes, we are seeing conditions shift into balanced territory for homes priced above $700,000.

Semi-Detached

Like the detached sector despite the seasonal monthly gain, both sales and new listings fell from last year’s record high. While inventories are starting to rise over the levels seen in the past few months, they remain amongst the lowest levels reported for February. The relatively low inventory levels caused the months of supply to fall below two months in February, while it is still higher than last year’s ultra-low levels, conditions continue to favour the seller.

The unadjusted benchmark price reached $568,100 in February, nearly two per cent higher than last month and a three per cent gain over last February. Persistently tight market conditions contributed to the monthly unadjusted gain in the benchmark price. However, like detached properties prices remain below the May 2022 peak.

Row

Conditions remained exceptionally tight in February with only one month of supply and a sales-to-new listings ratio of 87 percent. While row sales have eased over record levels, they have remained relatively strong for February as demand shifts toward the affordable product in the market.

The persistently tight conditions caused further upward pressure on prices. In February, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $369,700, a monthly gain of over two per cent and a year-over-year gain of nine per cent. Unlike the other sectors, prices have reached a new high this month.

Apartment Condominium

Sales for apartment condominiums did not see the same pace of decline as other property types in February partly due to the level of new listings coming onto the market. Persistently strong sales compared to listings have caused February inventory levels to remain relatively low compared to levels seen over the past eight years and the months of supply once again dropped below two months.

The tight market condition contributed to the upward pressure on prices. In February, the unadjusted apartment benchmark price reached $286,000, nearly three per cent higher than last month and over 11 per cent higher than last February. While prices are still higher than the levels reported last year, they remain nearly seven per cent below the peak levels reported back in 2014.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Inventories continued to improve in February but with only 178 units available levels are still well below longer-term trends for the month ensuring that the months of supply remained below two months.

The unadjusted benchmark price in February rose over last month keeping it comparable to levels seen last year at this time. However, with a benchmark price of $487,200, prices remain below the peak price of $510,700 reported in April 2022.

Cochrane

Like Airdrie, inventory levels have also been on the rise in Cochrane. While February levels are double what was available in the market last year, inventories remain over 40 per cent below long-term trends for the month. Nonetheless, both sales and new listings have eased so far this year helping the market shift toward more balanced conditions.

The February benchmark price did improve both over last month’s and last year’s levels. However, with an unadjusted price of $492,900, levels are still below the $522,600 peak reached in June of 2022.

Okotoks

While both sales and new listings have slowed compared to last year, conditions remained exceptionally tight with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 90 per cent. Inventory levels also continued to fall both compared to last month and last year, with levels nearing the February 2006 record low.

As conditions continue to favour the seller, it is not a surprise that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In February, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $555,000, three per cent higher than last month’s and last February’s levels. However, like some areas, prices remain just shy of the May peak of $560,700.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The Viani Real Estate Group is honoured to be recognized as the #4 top-producing team at RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) for 2022.

In addition, the Viani Real Estate group also achieved Diamond Team status, one of only four teams to do so at RE/MAX Real Estate Central.

RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) has been recognized as the #1 RE/MAX office in the world for either the number of sales, total sales volume or both for the past 23 years and has over 250 realtors, we are proud to say we were amongst the top producing realtors at this number one RE/MAX office in the world.

The Viani Real Estate Group helped over 130 friends, families, businesses and investors achieve their real estate goals in 2022. Through the diverse skill set of our group, knowledge and experience we were able to assist clients with their residential, commercial and rural needs.

Thank you to all of our clients for your continued support, buying or selling real estate is likely one of the largest investments you will make, we appreciate being your realtors of choice.

Thank you to those who referred clients to us, there is no higher compliment than the referral of your family and friends, and to our families for their continued support, without each of you, we could not achieve such success.

We look forward to hearing from you in 2023 and the Viani Real Estate Group has some exciting news coming in the next couple of weeks.

Contact us today to achieve your real estate goals, put our experience to work for you.

Best Wishes
www.vianigroup.com
Viani | Kushner | Richter | Lang 

JANUARY HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Feb. 1, 2023

Supply of lower-priced homes remains low for January

The level of new listings in January fell to the lowest levels seen since the late 90s. While new listings fell in nearly every price range, the pace of decline was higher for lower-priced properties.

At the same time, sales activity did slow compared to the high levels reported last year but remained consistent with long-term trends. However, there has been a shift in the composition of sales as detached homes only comprised 47 per cent of all sales.

“Higher lending rates are causing many buyers to seek out lower-priced products in our market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “However, the higher rates are likely also preventing some move-up activity in the market impacting supply growth for lower-priced homes. This is causing differing conditions in the housing market based on price range.”

With 2,451 units available in inventory, levels remain 43 per cent lower than long-term trends for the month. While overall inventory levels are slightly lower than last January, there is significant variation by price range. Homes priced under $500,000 reported year-over-year inventory declines of nearly 30 per cent while inventory levels improved for homes prices above that level.

Although conditions are not as tight as last year, lower supply levels are preventing a significant shift toward balanced conditions and prices did trend up slightly over last month breaking the seven consecutive month slide. As of January, the benchmark price reached $520,900, 5 per cent higher than last January, but still well below the May 2022 high of $546,000.

Detached

Detached home sales saw the largest pullback despite the year-over-year rise in inventory levels. Higher lending rates are cooling demand for higher-priced homes which is supporting inventory gains. Meanwhile, a limited supply of lower-priced products is preventing stronger sales in the lower price ranges.

The variation within the market is likely causing divergent trends in pricing as prices have trended down in the higher-priced City Centre, while still reporting some modest gains in other districts of the city. Overall, the benchmark price reached $622,800 in January, slightly higher than levels reported in December, but still below the monthly high achieved in May 2022.

Semi-Detached

Sales in January slowed relative to last year’s levels but remained above levels achieved before the pandemic. At the same time, a pullback in new listings has left inventory levels below the already low levels reported last January. Like the detached sector, semi-detached homes have seen shifts where the demand remains strong for lower-priced product relative to the supply likely causing divergent trends in pricing.

In January, most districts reported a monthly benchmark price growth. However, prices did trend down in the higher-priced City Centre district causing Calgary’s semi-detached benchmark prices to ease slightly over levels seen in December 2022. Despite the monthly adjustment overall, prices remained nearly six per cent higher than levels reported in January 2022.

Row

Row homes sales slowed over last year’s record high but remained well above long-term trends for the month. Sales would have likely been stronger if more listings came onto the market. In January, new listings dropped over the previous year and were over 20 per cent below long-term trends. The adjustments in both sales and new listings did little to change the low inventory scenario and the months of supply remained below two months in January.

The persistently tight conditions did also prevent any downward pressure on prices which posted a nearly one per cent gain over December levels. With a benchmark price of $361,400, levels are still over 12 per cent higher than last January, and only slightly lower than the $363,700 monthly high achieved in June 2022.

Apartment Condominium

Sales for apartment condominiums did not see the same pace of decline as other property types in January partly due to the level of new listings coming onto the market. Nonetheless, inventory levels remained well below long-term trends for the month and have not been this low in January since 2014.

The adjustments to both sales and inventory have left this sector with a months of supply that is lower than levels seen at the start of 2022. The shift to affordable options is also impacting prices within the apartment condominium sector. In January, prices trended up from December levels driven by strong gains in the lower priced district of the North East and East. Overall, apartment condominium prices in the city reached $277,600, one per cent higher than last month and a year-over-year gain of nearly 10 per cent, narrowing the spread from the record high prices set in 2014.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

January sales eased over last year’s record high but remained consistent with long-term trends for the month. The pullback in sales did outpace the pullback in new listings causing inventory levels to improve over the exceptionally low levels reported last year. Despite the inventory gain, levels remain over 50 per cent lower than long-term trends for January

These shifts in the market have caused the months of supply to rise over last January’s 2022 record low. However, with less than two months of supply, conditions continue to remain relatively tight and supported a modest monthly price gain. In January, the benchmark price reached $480,200, nearly eight per cent higher than last January, but still below the monthly peak of $510,700 achieved in April 2022.

Cochrane

January sales eased over last year’s record high but remained comparable to long-term trends for the month. At the same time, new listings also slowed, but not at the same pace as sales. Inventory levels also rose from the near record lows reported last January. While improving inventories is likely welcome news to most buyers, inventory levels are still nearly 40 per cent below long-term trends.

Shifts in both sales and inventory have caused the months of supply to rise to nearly three months. This has taken some of the pressure off home prices which have seen exceptional gains over the past two years. Overall, the benchmark price in January was $488,900, over one per cent lower than last month but still seven per cent higher than January 2022 levels.

Okotoks

Both sales and new listings slowed in January compared to last year, preventing any significant addition to inventory compared to what was available in the market at the end of 2022. While there is more supply in the market compared to last January’s record low, with only 56 units available, this is still 61 per cent below long-term trends for the town.

The persistently tight market conditions have supported significant price growth over the past several years. While recent shifts have taken some of the pressure off the pace of price growth, prices did see some further gains this month. In January, the benchmark price reached $539,000, an increase from December and a year-over-year gain of nearly seven per cent.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Key indicators combined with lender risk mitigation measures shore up expectations of resilience.

Interest rate hikes served to destabilize most major Canadian housing markets beginning in 2022, however a new report from RE/MAX Canada reveals that homeowners are well-positioned to ride out the coming storm in large part due to lower loan-to-value ratios on new mortgages.

The RE/MAX 2023 Canada Housing Barometer Report examined average price and new mortgage values published by CMHC-Equifax Canada in 12 major markets from British Columbia to New Brunswick, to compare loan-to-value (LTV) ratios between Q3 2012 and Q3 2022. The report found that LTV ratios had declined in 67 percent of markets (eight) over the past decade, with the greatest drops noted in London and Moncton (21 percent), Halifax (15 percent), Hamilton (14 percent), Toronto (10 percent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (nine percent). Four markets, including Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Regina, were up over 2012 levels, a trend that is set to reverse in the years ahead as Alberta and Saskatchewan’s economic engines gain momentum and drive home-buying activity. The lowest loan-to-value ratios were found in the most expensive markets, including Vancouver (50 percent), Toronto (53 percent), and Hamilton (54 percent) while the highest loan-to-value ratios were found in Regina (88 percent) and Edmonton (83 percent). Nationally, loan-to-value ratios hovered at 57 percent.

Three factors were largely responsible for the downward pressure on loan-to-value ratios over the past decade, according to the Canada Housing Barometer Report: equity gains, the pandemic facilitating the ability to work remotely in smaller markets, and the transfer of intergenerational wealth, particularly in the latter half of the last decade and the early 2020s.

FACTS & STATS

• MARKETS WITH THE LOWEST APPRECIATION OVER THE 10 YEAR PERIOD REPORTED THE HIGHEST LOAN TO VALUE RATIOS.

• 8 OUT OF 12 MARKETS ANALYZED SAW THE LOAN-TO-VALUE RATIO DECLINE OVER THE 10 YEAR PERIOD EXAMINED.

• THREE FACTORS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON LOAN-TO-VALUE RATIOS OVER THE PAST DECADE.

“Risk factors for the overall housing market are greatly reduced when homeowners own a larger proportion of their homes. With half of loan-to-value ratios within the 50- and 60-per-cent range in Canadian markets, homeowners are better able to withstand downward pressure on housing values and fewer will find themselves underwater, carrying upside down loans.”

Canadian buyers are much better qualified than a decade ago as a result, according to the RE/MAX report. A recent CMHC-Equifax Canada report confirmed a significant reduction in the number of buyers with credit scores under 660 in the past decade. Nationally, that number fell to 4.7 percent in the third quarter of 2022, down from eight percent a decade earlier. Ottawa-Gatineau, at 3.9 percent, had the lowest share of new mortgage holders with credit scores below 660, while Winnipeg had the highest at 6.4 percent. The loan-to-value ratio in all markets was down from decade-ago levels.

Mortgage delinquency rates have also fallen in most markets across the country, with the national percentage sitting at just 0.14 percent – down just over 63 percent from levels reported in 2012. The lowest rates can be found in Ontario and British Columbia, where the delinquency rates are below 0.08.

Rapid population growth was identified as a primary catalyst in driving home-buying activity over the past decade, with the quarterly population estimate rising 12.1 percent nationally from Q3 2012 to Q3 2022. Interest rates also played a starring role over the 10-year period, with the overnight rate dropping to 0.25 percent in May of 2009 and maintaining relatively low levels throughout the 2010s, climbing in 2018 and 2019 only to fall again to 0.25 percent in 2020.

Population growth is expected to continue in the years ahead, given the federal government’s commitment to increase immigration levels, but interest rates will likely remain relatively high in the foreseeable future, which should temper home-buying activity to some extent, particularly in the first half of the year.

“As we head into 2023, there are likely to be challenges, but a healthy number of homebuyers are expected to continue to enter the country’s housing markets from coast to coast,” says Ash. “The trend toward smaller markets should continue to play out in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Western Canada —areas where in-migration from more expensive markets has occurred recently. Major centres in Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to see strong growth in the year ahead as provincial economies continue to operate on all cylinders. However, there could be some tough times ahead for larger markets that are seeing an uptick in over-extended buyers, as well as increased financial hardships for parents who helped their kids into homeownerships by taking out Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOCs). While most chartered banks are typically willing to work with homeowners in distress situations, buyers that chose to work with private lenders are having a different experience, as evidenced in recent stories in the media.”

While overall risk to the Canadian housing market remains low, risk mitigation remains top of mind for regulators, given real estate’s impact on the Canadian economy. The sector has accounted for 10 to 17 percent of GDP in recent years. The government’s OSFI stress test is among the additional measures aimed at reinforcing the country’s real estate market going forward. While still in development, it would look at addressing three key factors: mortgage size and debt load, new debt service ratios, plus a new interest rate stress test. Given the success of the Stress Test to date (qualifying buyers at two percent above posted rates since 2018), it’s clear some constraints can prove invaluable. That said, further measures that would make it more difficult for Canadians to realize home ownership, while well-intentioned, may potentially cause more harm than good.

“At the end of the day, what’s evident by the loan-to-value ratios and by policies to discourage speculation and over-extension is that real estate is and will always be a long-term hold,” explains Alexander. The Canada Housing Barometer Report shows that most purchasers are aligned with that philosophy, as demonstrated by their tenacity to get into the market and hold steady. Savvy homebuyers and homeowners are looking to offset carrying costs by reducing their footprint—choosing smaller homes, as reported in Ottawa, or renting out basement suites in their homes, a trend noted across the board, but especially apparent in London and Saskatoon. Some buyers are purchasing duplexes and other multi-unit properties and living in one of the units. Multi-generational sales are also happening with increasing frequency across Canada, whereby two or three generations live together. This trend was strong in Toronto’s 905 region, as well as in Winnipeg and Saskatoon.

“The bottom line is that the dream and desire for home ownership is unmistakable,” says Alexander. “The mechanisms in place to underpin stability are working, and although more challenging conditions in 2023 may cause some to temporarily take pause, the longer-term outlook remains positive. Once the Bank of Canada has signalled that it is done with quantitative tightening, the market is expected to return to more normal levels of homebuying activity overall.”

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

Calgary

Alberta’s strengthening economic engine continues to fuel robust home-buying activity in the province’s largest centre. Calgary is one of few markets in the country reporting an increase in home sales in 2022, with the number of properties sold climbing by just over seven percent, while prices rose close to five percent year-over-year. Inventory levels continued to dwindle, falling 21 percent from 2021 levels. Despite higher interest rates, multiple offers are occurring, with the greatest activity reported in the $450,000 to $650,000 range for single-detached homes and $240,000 to $270,000 for condominiums. The rebound in the oil and gas sector has greatly contributed to the overall health of the housing market. Over the past decade, challenges in the resource sector cast a shadow over housing performance throughout the province, which was reflected in the 10-year stats. Average price in the Calgary CMA in Q3 2022 rose just 18.2 percent to $503,450 over the past decade, up from $425,820 during the same period in 2012. The loan-to-value ratio edged up to 74 percent in 2022, up three percent over the 71 percent reported in 2012. The market’s trajectory changed during the pandemic, coming alive as the province’s economic destiny changed course. In-migration has gained momentum in lockstep in recent years, as evidenced by the uptick in population. According to Statistics Canada, Alberta experienced a 2.7 percent increase between the first and fourth quarter, welcoming more than 118,929 people to the province. Buyers from British Columbia and Ontario are arriving almost daily, attracted to the city’s affordable housing stock and well-paying jobs. With Alberta expected to lead the country in terms of economic growth in the year ahead, home-buying activity in Calgary should remain strong for the foreseeable future.

Courtesy RE/MAX Canada

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) has released its 2023 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report. The report, which is prepared by CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, provides a detailed analysis of the economic and housing market trends in Calgary and surrounding areas for the upcoming year.

According to the report, elevated lending rates are expected to weigh on sales in 2023, bringing levels down from the record high in 2022. However, with forecasted sales of 25,921 in 2023, levels are still expected to be higher than the activity reported before the pandemic.

“Higher commodity prices, recent job growth, record high migration and relative affordability are expected to help offset some of the impacts higher lending rates are having on housing demand. At the same time, we are entering the year with low supply levels which are expected to prevent significant price declines in our market,” said Lurie.

Supply levels declined to the lowest levels seen in over a decade as gains in higher price properties did not offset the supply declines occurring in lower-priced homes. This has left our market in a situation where lower-priced properties still face sellers’ market conditions while higher-priced homes are seeing more balanced to buyers' market conditions.

The shift between supply and sales by price ranges is expected to create divergent trends in prices depending on property type and price range. Overall, price declines in the upper end of the market are expected to offset gains reported in the lower ranges, causing an annual decline of less than one percent.

“With much of the pandemic behind us, 2023 reflects more of an adjustment into more typical conditions and a pause on price gains following 12 percent growth in 2022. While other markets in the country are forecasted to see more significant price and sale declines in 2023, Calgary did not face the same gains as those markets, as prices only recovered from the 2014 highs in 2021,” added Lurie.

Click here for the full CREB® 2023 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

DECEMBER HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

2022 saw record-high sales and double-digit price growth

December sales eased, however, slowing sales over the second half of 2022 were not enough to offset earlier gains as sales reached a record high of 29,672 units in 2022.

Over the past several months, the pullback in sales was also met with a significant pullback in new listings, causing further declines in inventory levels. As of December, there were 2,214 units available in Inventory, making it the lowest level of inventory reported for December in over a decade.

“Housing market conditions have changed significantly throughout the year, as sales activity slowed following steep rate gains throughout the later part of the year,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “However, Calgary continues to report activity that is better than levels seen before the pandemic and higher than long-term trends for the city. At the same time, we have faced persistently low inventory levels, which have prevented a more significant adjustment in home prices this year.”

Benchmark prices eased to $518,800 in December, down nearly five percent from the peak price in May but almost eight percent higher than last December. While prices have trended down annually, they remain over 12 percent higher than last year’s levels.

The housing market in 2022 generally outperformed expectations both in terms of sales and price growth.

For more information on the 2023 housing market, join us at our Forecast Conference on Jan. 24.

Detached

The detached market has felt most of the impact of higher rates as a pullback in sales in the year’s second half contributed to the year-to-date decline of over seven percent. While there have been some gains in new listings over the last quarter, much of the growth has occurred in the market's upper-end, supporting more balanced conditions. However, supply levels for lower-priced homes remain low relative to the sales activity, causing that market segment to continue favouring the seller. Overall, the detached market has seen activity shift away from the strong sellers’ conditions reported earlier in the year.

Prices in the detached market have trended down in the second half of the year, as the December benchmark price of $619,600 has eased by just over four percent from the June high. The recent adjustments have not erased all the earlier gains, as benchmark prices reported an annual gain of over 14 percent. Annual price growth has ranged from a high of 19 percent in the South East, North and North East districts to a low of nearly eight percent in the City Centre.

Semi-Detached

Further declines in sales this month contributed to the year-to-date sales decline of nearly three percent. While sales have eased relative to last year’s record levels, activity is still far stronger than long-term trends and levels reported prior to the pandemic. At the same time, new listings have been trending down for this property type, keeping the inventory and months of supply relatively low compared to historical levels.

While conditions are not as tight as earlier in the year, there has been some downward pressure on prices. The monthly benchmark price peaked in May of this year and has eased by nearly four percent since then. However, on an annual basis, benchmark prices remain nearly 12 percent higher than in 2021. The North district reported a higher annual price gain of over 18 percent.

Row

Significant reductions in new listings weighed on sales over the last few months of the year. Despite recent shifts, annual sales in the city reached a new record high, with 5,153 sales in 2022. Not only was it a record year, but sales were nearly double long-term trends. Higher lending rates are driving more purchasers toward the more affordable row options. While new listings were still higher than last year’s levels on an annual basis, the recent pullback combined with relatively strong sales has caused inventory levels to fall.

As of December, inventory levels were at the lowest since 2013. This has ensured that this segment of the market continues to favour the seller. While prices have eased by just over one percent from the June peak, overall year-to-date prices are nearly 15 percent higher than last year.

Apartment Condominium

Unlike other property types, apartment condominium sales continue to rise above the previous year’s levels throughout the year. This caused year-to-date sales to rise by 50 percent to 6,221 units, a new record high. Demand for affordable product, along with renewed investor interest thanks to rental rate growth, helped support sales growth. Gains in this sector were also possible thanks to the growth in annual new listings. However, like other sectors, the increase in new listings was not enough to outweigh the sales growth, and inventory levels trended down to levels not seen since 2013.

After several years of being oversupplied, the shift to tighter conditions supported annual price gains of nearly nine percent. While price gains occurred across every district, city-wide prices remain well below the previous highs reached back in 2014.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales in Airdrie have declined since April, mainly because of the significant drop in detached home sales. December was no exception, as sales slowed compared to last year’s levels. Despite recent declines, year-to-date total residential sales increased by seven percent and have set a new record-high of 2,469 units. Regional population growth combined with the relative affordability of homes in Airdrie compared to Calgary are some factors supporting the record sales in 2022.

While new listings trended down in December, 2022 saw a general rise in new listings in the market. This has helped support some recent year-over-year gains in inventory levels over last year’s exceptionally low levels. Recent adjustments in both sales and inventory levels have caused the months of supply to trend up from the strong seller’s market conditions reported earlier in the year. However, conditions remain relatively tight with less than two months of supply.

The December benchmark price in Airdrie has eased by over six percent from the April peak. However, this is still 12 percent higher than last year's level. Overall, the annual benchmark price in 2002 was $489,558, nearly 20 percent higher than last year's level.

Cochrane

December sales eased, contributing to the year-to-date decline of eight percent. The annual pullback in sales was met with new listings comparable to last year. This has helped support some inventory growth in the market, but levels are still well below what is typically available in the resale market. While inventory levels remain low, the recent pullback in sales has resulted in more balanced conditions taking some of the pressure of price growth seen over the last four months of the year.

On an annual basis, the benchmark price reached $504,067 in the town, nearly 17 percent higher than last year’s prices. Price gains were the strongest in both the detached and semi-detached sectors, where prices rose by 19 percent, establishing 2022 as the new record-high price.

Okotoks

Sales activity eased in December, but the year-over-year pullback over the past few months has not offset the gains reported earlier in the year, as year-to-date sales activity rose by nearly two percent. This growth in sales was met with additional new listings in the market, helping support higher inventory levels over last year’s record lows. Even with some inventory growth, conditions continue to remain tight with under two months of supply, placing limits on the price adjustments.

While prices have trended down from the high seen in May, on an annual basis, benchmark price growth in the town was nearly 16 percent. Price growth was strongest in the detached sector, which for the first time, pushed above $600,000 on an annual basis.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4¼%, with the Bank Rate at 4½% and the deposit rate at 4¼%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based. Global economic growth is slowing, although it is proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy is weakening but consumption continues to be solid and the labour market remains overheated. The gradual easing of global supply bottlenecks continues, although further progress could be disrupted by geopolitical events.

In Canada, GDP growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected, and the economy continued to operate in excess demand. Canada’s labour market remains tight, with unemployment near historic lows. While commodity exports have been strong, there is growing evidence that tighter monetary policy is restraining domestic demand: consumption moderated in the third quarter, and housing market activity continues to decline. Overall, the data since the October MPR support the Bank’s outlook that growth will essentially stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year.

CPI inflation remained at 6.9% in October, with many of the goods and services Canadians regularly buy showing large price increases. Measures of core inflation remain around 5%. Three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down, an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum. However, inflation is still too high and short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. The longer that consumers and businesses expect inflation to be above the target, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.

Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target. Governing Council continues to assess how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. We are resolute in our commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target and restoring price stability for Canadians.

Courtesy the Bank of Canada

Canada’s housing markets are still squarely in correction mode. The latest results from local real estate boards confirm activity and prices generally remained under intense downward pressure in November. This was entirely expected considering the heavy toll soaring interest rates are taking on buyers from coast to coast. Higher rates are forcing many of them to put their purchase plans on ice and others to house-hunt on a reduced purchasing budget. We think this will continue to be the case into the early part of 2023—conditional on the Bank of Canada halting its rate hiking campaign this month.

For the most part, local market activity is downright soft, at levels far below where they were before the pandemic. Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa and Montreal are among that group. However, areas of the Prairies (including Calgary and Edmonton) continue to operate above pre-pandemic levels despite the correction that has taken place to date. A stronger provincial economy and rising in-migration are no doubt keeping demand relatively solid in those markets.

Declining price trends are generalized but more advanced in parts of the country that experienced larger appreciation earlier in the pandemic. Toronto, the Fraser Valley and Vancouver have so far shown some of the sharpest drops. We see those trends continuing until demand-supply conditions tighten from current levels. We expect the cyclical bottom for prices to be reached around spring next year—though this is poised to vary market by market.

Toronto area—Quiet period continues

The steep correction may be moderating but is still ongoing at this stage. Home resales fell another 3.8% m/m in November and the composite MLS HPI was down 0.8% m/m—an eighth consecutive drop. Clearly, sharply higher interest rates and the considerable loss of affordability continue to challenge buyers. And we think they will keep the market quiet for some time to come. The surge in interest rates has materially changed the equation for buyers, many of whom may be sidelined for an extended period. It will take further price declines to draw them back in the market. With demand-supply conditions no longer favouring sellers, we believe that’s exactly what’s in the cards. That said, prices have already adjusted significantly since the March peak—the MLS HPI is down 18%, or $245,000 (not seasonally adjusted)—and any further depreciation is likely to be more incremental. Indeed, the monthly rate of decline has slowed noticeably this fall. The picture will differ on a year-over-year basis, though, as comparisons to historically high price points a year ago will drive down annual rate of change meaningfully.

Montreal area—Downturn picks up some velocity

The market has shifted to a lower gear in recent months. This became even more evident in November when home resales slumped an estimated 8% m/m to the lowest level in almost 13 years (excluding the pandemic shutdown). This took place amid an increase in properties put up for sale relative to October (on a seasonally adjusted basis), further easing demand-supply conditions. After sharply appreciating earlier in the pandemic, property values are now on the decline. The MLS HPI dropped sequentially in the five months ending October, and likely did so again in November. The correction is about to reverse the entire appreciation over the past year, leaving price levels below year-ago levels for the first time in more than eight years. The value of single-detached homes is under more intense downward pressure on the Island of Montreal and in Laval where the median price is down 10% and 4% y/y, respectively. We expect the price softening to continue in the near term as higher interest rates keep buyers on the defensive.

Vancouver area—Not out of the woods yet

Activity remains not only soft but fell again last month after a brief pause in October. We estimate the drop in home resales was more than 12% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, bringing the cumulative decline since March at -51%. New listings were also down in November. So demand-supply conditions eased only marginally—remaining on the cusp of a full-blown buyer’s market. This kept property values on a moderate downward track. The MLS HPI fell m/m (-1.5%, unadjusted for seasonality) for the eighth-straight month, slipping below its year-ago level (-0.6%) for the first time in almost three years. The index is off more than 10% since the April peak. We expect the market’s extremely poor affordability will continue to weigh on activity and prices in the near term.

Calgary—Prices correcting (mildly) despite market’s heat

The market is letting some of the steam out of prices but conditions are still hot overall. Home resales continue to hover far above pre-pandemic levels—even rising slightly by estimated 3% m/m (seasonally adjusted) in November. In fact, activity might have been restrained by a sizable drop in new listings (down an estimated 14% m/m). This left even fewer options for buyers who face historically low inventories. Home prices continued to moderate nonetheless. The MLS HPI eased month-over-month for the sixth consecutive time in November. While demand remains robust, soaring interest rates have materially eroded buyers’ budget, which is what we think is at play. Since its peak in May, the area’s price index lost almost 5% in value, representing one of the milder corrections among Canada’s largest markets. We expect higher interest rates will continue to drive prices modestly lower in the near term.

Courtesy RBC 

Residential sales in the city slowed to 1,648 units, a year-over-year decline of 22 per cent, but 12 per cent above the 10-year average.

The pullback in sales over the past six months was not enough to erase gains from earlier in the year as year-to-date sales remain nearly 10 per cent above last year’s record high. The year-to-date sales growth has been driven by a surge in both apartment condominium and row sales.

“Easing sales have been driven mostly by declines in the detached sector of the market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Higher lending rates are impacting purchasers buying power and limited supply choice in the lower price ranges of the detached market is likely causing many purchasers to place buying decisions on hold.”

A decline in sales was met with a pullback in new listings and inventories fell to the lowest level reported in November since 2005. The pullback in both sales and new listings kept the months of supply relatively tight at below two months. The tightest conditions are occurring in the lower-price ranges as supply growth has mostly been driven by gains in the upper-end of the market.

Despite the lower supply levels, prices have trended down from the peak reached in May of this year. Even with the adjustments that have occurred, November benchmark prices continue to remain nearly nine per cent higher than levels reported last year.

Detached

Detached sales slowed across every price range this month, contributing to the year-over-year decline of nearly 34 per cent and the year-to-date decline of five per cent. On a year-to-date basis, sales have eased for homes priced under $500,000 as the level of new listings in this price range has dropped by over 36 per cent limiting the options for purchasers looking for affordable product.

Meanwhile, new listings and supply selection did improve for higher-priced properties creating more balanced conditions in the upper-end of the market. This has different implications on price pressure in the market.

The benchmark price in November slowed to $619,700, down from the high in May of $648,500. While prices have eased over the past several months, they continue to remain nearly 11 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

Semi-Detached

The pullback in sales this month was enough to cause the year-to-date sales to ease by nearly one per cent compared to last year. Despite the recent declines, year-to-date sales remain 37 per cent above long-term averages for the city.

Easing sales this month were also met with a pullback in new listings, causing further declines in inventory levels and ensuring market conditions remained relatively tight with a month of supply of two months and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 100 per cent.

Unlike the detached sector, the tight conditions prevented any further retraction in prices this month. In November, the benchmark price reached $562,800, slightly higher than last month and nearly 10 per cent higher than last year’s levels.

Row

Further declines in new listings likely contributed to the slower sales activity this month as the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained high at 99 per cent. Inventory levels fell to 383 units, making it the lowest level of November inventory recorded since the 2013. This low level of inventory ensured that the months of supply remained below two months.

Despite the persistently tight market conditions, prices trended down this month reaching $358,700. While prices have eased from the June high, they are nearly 14 per cent higher than prices reported last November. The strongest price growth was reported in the North East, North and South East districts where prices have risen by over 18 per cent.

Apartment Condominium

Despite a pullback in new listings this month, apartment condominium sales continued to rise, and inventories fell to the lowest November levels seen since 2013. This caused further tightening in market conditions as the sales-to-new-listings ratio pushed above 100 per cent and a months of supply dropped to two months.

Recent tightening in the market has put a pause on price adjustments for apartment condominiums. In November, prices remained relatively stable at $277,000 compared to last month. While prices have reported a year-over-year gain of nearly 10 per cent, prices are still below their previous highs set back in 2014.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

November sales eased mostly due to the significant pullback in detached sales. While sales this month are down over last year’s record levels, overall activity is still far stronger than long-term trends and year-to-date sales are still on pace to reach a new record high.

New listings did improve over the previous year, thanks to gains in row, semi and apartment style product. While the growth in new listings did cause November inventories to rise over last year’s low levels, inventory levels remain nearly 40 per cent below long-term trends in the area.

Despite persistently tight conditions, benchmark prices continue to trend down from the record high level reported in April of this year. Despite some adjustments, prices remained over 13 per cent higher than last year’s levels.

Cochrane

Further declines in November sales contributed to the six per cent year-to-date decline in sales. However, with 1,091 sales so far this year, this is still 69 per cent above long-term trends for the town.

Meanwhile, new listings have remained relatively low compared to sales, preventing a more significant shift in inventory levels. In November, inventory levels did rise above the low levels seen last year, but remained 35 per cent below longer term trends for the area.

Following significant gains reported earlier in the year, benchmark prices continue to trend down in November. However, the adjustments did not erase previous gains as the benchmark price remained over 12 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

Okotoks

Both sales and new listings eased in November preventing any significant change to inventory levels. While inventory levels are higher than last year, they remain 54 per cent below long-term trends for the area. Overall year-to-date sales activity has improved over last year and are 41 per cent higher than long-term trends.

As conditions have remained relatively tight this month, we saw a reversal of some of the price adjustments recorded over the previous two months. The benchmark price in November reached $549,100, a two per cent gain compared to last month, and a year-over-year gain of nearly 16 per cent.  

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