City of Calgary, January 4, 2020

With December sales of 1,199, this is the highest December total since 2007.

“Housing demand over the second-half of 2020 was far stronger than anticipated and nearly offset the initial impact caused by the shutdowns in spring. Even with the further restrictions imposed in December, it did not have the same negative impact on housing activity like we saw in the earlier part of the year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Attractive interest rates along with prices that remain lower than several years ago have likely supported some of the recovery in the second half of the year. However, it is important to note that annual sales activity declined by one per cent compared to last year and remain well below long-term averages.

New listings in December increased by 11 per cent. However, the number of sales exceeded the number of new listings in December contributing to further declines in inventory. Reductions in supply and improving demand in the second half of the year have contributed to some of the recent price improvements in the market. However, the recent gain in the benchmark price was not enough to offset earlier pullbacks as the annual residential benchmark price in Calgary declined by one per cent over last year.

The pandemic has resulted in a significant shift in economic conditions, yet the housing market is entering 2021 in far more balanced conditions than we have seen in over five years. This will help provide some cushion for the market moving into 2021, but conditions will continue to vary depending on price range, location, and product type. More information about the 2021 housing market forecast for Calgary will be available at the CREB® Forecast on Tuesday, January 26, 2021.

For more event details, please visit crebforecast.com.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

Stronger sales in the second half of the year were enough to offset earlier pullbacks as detached sales totalled 9,950, just slightly higher

than last years' levels. Despite the modest gain, detached sales activity remains at the lower levels recorded since the more stringent stress te

st was introduced in 2018.

Supply adjustments is causing sellers' market conditions for detached homes across all districts except the West and City Centre. This has helped support some price recovery in the market over the past several months.

Annual city-wide price remains relatively flat compared to last year, but there were notable annual gains in both the South and South East districts which both recorded price gains of nearly two per cent. Despite some of the annual shifts seen, prices remain well below previous highs in all districts of the city.

Semi-Detached

Sales growth in the North East, North, West and South East district were offset by declines in the City Centre, North West, South and East districts. Sales this year of 1,663 were similar to levels recorded last year.

While sales did not improve across each district, there were reductions in supply across all districts and is helping to reduce the months of supply.

These reductions are starting to impact prices, but it was not enough to offset earlier pullbacks.

City wide semi-detached prices eased by over one per cent in 2020, with the largest declines occurring in the City Centre, North West and West areas.

Row

Slower sales in the west district were not enough to offset the gains recorded in the rest of the city. Row sales totalled 2,145 in 2020, nearly two per cent higher than last years' levels. Despite the gains, levels continue to remain below long-term averages for the city.

Rising sales were generally met with a reduction in supply. This is causing the months of supply to trend down, especially over the second half of the year.

The decline in the months of supply was enough to help support some stability in prices. However, the adjustment did not occur soon enough and annual prices eased by nearly two per cent compared to the previous year and remain nearly 14 per cent below previous highs.

Price adjustments did vary depending on location. The steepest decline occurred in the North East with a year-over-year decline of five per cent. The strongest gain occurred in the West district with a two per cent rise.

Apartment Condominium

Sales this month were the best December since 2014. However, it was not enough to offset earlier pullbacks as apartment condominium sales eased by ten per cent in 2020. This is the slowest year for apartment condo sales since 2001 and the only property type to record a significant annual decline in sales.

Unlike other property types, supply levels have not adjusted in the same way and this segment remains oversupplied. Prices have trended down over the past two months due to excess supply. On an annual basis, the benchmark price declined by over two per cent this year and is over 16 per cent below the highs set in 2015.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

December sales reached a new record high for the month. Improving sales throughout the second half of the year contributed to the annual sales of 1,407, a year-over-year gain of 18 per cent.

New listings also rose in December and is likely contributing to some of the monthly gains in sales. Overall, new listings have remained well below last year. Along with improving sales, this is causing inventories to decline.

Months of supply has remained below three months since June and prices have trended up. By December, the benchmark price had risen by nearly five per cent compared to last year.

On an annual basis, the gains in price were enough to offset the earlier pullbacks and is creating stability in prices. However, this was not the case for all product types. Detached prices rose by nearly two per cent on an annual basis. Benchmark prices for row and apartment style product eased by a respective seven and one per cent compared to last year.

Cochrane

Record sales in December contributed to the annual gain of 16 per cent, making it the best year of sales compared to the past five years. New listings in 2020 also eased compared to last year. Rising sales and less new listings on the market caused inventories to ease to the lowest levels recorded since 2014.

With months of supply of only two months, prices continued to trend up. December benchmark price was $419,900 and is a 5 per cent gain over last year. Prices have trended up over that past six months but remain relatively stable compared to last year. This is due to easing prices for higher density products offsetting gains in the detached sector.

Okotoks

Despite further declines in new listings, December sales improved. Year-to-date sales increased by nearly eight per cent. The lack of new listings and stronger sales caused inventories to drop to 63 homes in December, the lowest level for any month seen since 2006.

The lack of inventory and high demand has supported increasing prices for the second half of the year. As of December, the benchmark price was $434,700, nearly two per cent above last years' levels. Despite the recent gains, 2020 benchmark prices remain over one per cent below last years' levels.

However, this could be due to steeper price declines for semi, row and apartment style product.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

How Mortgage Payment Penalties Work

Who’s Driving Demand for Calgary Real Estate?

Move-up buyers and first-time homebuyers are currently driving demand in the Calgary real estate market, which is expected to continue into 2021. The most popular property type among these buyers are single-detached homes.

First-time homebuyers in Calgary are typically single homebuyers and young couples, looking for single-detached homes. These properties range in price from $350,000 to $475,000. While first-time homebuyers were initially hesitant to buy, many have decided to purchase due to low interest rates.

Move-up buyers in the Calgary housing market are typically families who have been in their home for a number of years, and whose jobs haven’t been affected by COVID-19 or the economy. There has been no real hesitation from move-up buyers who are looking to purchase a new home due to the current climate in 2020. Many of those who are buying have gone through a 5-year recession and have jobs that have been unimpacted by COVID-19.

The condominium market in Calgary is most popular with single homebuyers and retirees/downsizers. The average price for a condominium in Calgary is $226,220. There is currently 7 months of supply for condominiums in Calgary, and this is not expected to improve in the next 1-2 years due to the large number of used properties, as well as lots of new construction.

Calgary’s luxury market is currently driven by move-up buyers with the average starting price for a luxury home in Calgary being $750,00. While COVID-19 has not directly impacted the luxury market in Calgary, it has impacted the economy, which is expected to be a long-term impact.

Calgary’s Hottest Neighbourhoods

Calgary’s top-selling neighbourhoods in 2020 were North Central, South Central and North West/Central West. North Central is popular due to its proximity to both the airport and downtown, which South Central is a newer area that is close to the hospitals. These neighbourhoods are expected to continue to be in-demand in 2021 because of their access to amenities and transit.

Calgary New-Home Construction

Calgary’s new-home construction sales are down currently, with many developers currently looking for land to build on. There was a project that was turned down a few months ago, as the developers did not want to take on more expenses due to COVID-19 and the current economy. The number of homes currently being built in Calgary is sufficient to meet the current demand, and new-home sale prices are very competitive compared to the resale market.

Canadian Housing Market in 2021

Canadians are on the move. RE/MAX isn’t calling this an “exodus,” but the re-location trend across the Canadian housing market is real, and it’s just one focus of the RE/MAX 2021 Housing Market Outlook Report. RE/MAX Canada anticipates healthy housing price growth at the national level, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. An ongoing and widespread housing supply shortage is likely to continue, presenting challenges for homebuyers and putting upward pressure on prices.

- Read the RE/MAX Canadian Housing Market Outlook (2021) Here

Calgary Real Estate Board November 2020 Statistics 

For the sixth month in a row, sales in the Calgary market recorded a year-over-year gain.

Sales growth over the past several months has been the strongest seen in the past five years, but the activity has not been strong enough to offset the pullbacks from the spring. Year-to-date sales remain over three percent lower than last year's levels.

New listings continue to slow, reducing inventory in the market. On a year-to-date basis, new listings have eased by nearly ten percent and are at the lowest level recorded since 2001. This has reduced the oversupply that has been impacting the market for nearly five years.

"The gains in sales in the latter part of this year have been a bit surprising considering the job losses and unemployment rate in our city," said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"However, it is important to note that the shift to more balanced conditions has been mostly driven by the reduction of supply."

Tighter conditions in the housing market have contributed to some of the recent gains in benchmark prices. As of November, the benchmark price was $423,600. This is nearly two percent higher than last year's levels.

However, conditions vary depending on price range. There is not a lot of supply for affordable homes in each product type because of high demand. This is likely causing differing price trends in the lower end of the market versus the higher end.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

November sales activity improved across every district, contributing to a year-over-year citywide increase of 26 percent. Improving sales over the past six months have helped offset some of the pullbacks from earlier in the year, as year-to-date sales were only two percent lower than last year's levels.

Like other sectors, inventory in the detached market has also eased due to the sharp decline in new listings. This has kept the months of supply below three months for the past three months. The tighter market conditions are supporting price gains. As of November, the detached benchmark price improved by nearly three percent compared to last year for a total of $492,000. However, prices did not improve across all districts, as the City Centre continues to record prices that are one percent lower than last year's levels.

Activity for this product type does vary significantly depending on location and price range. The pullback in new listings relative to sales has caused significant reductions in inventory for homes priced below $500,000. Higher price ranges have also seen some declining inventory, but the degree of decline has not been as significant. In fact, the market is exhibiting sellers' market conditions for homes priced below $500,000, while still favouring the buyer for homes priced above $700,000.

Semi-Detached

Year-over-year gains in sales were met with slower new listings, resulting in inventory reductions and a month of supply of three months. While conditions are not as tight in the semi-detached market as they are in the detached market, the reductions in supply relative to demand were enough to support further monthly gains in the benchmark price.

As of November, the benchmark price was $395,100, which is one percent higher than last year's levels. Activity did vary depending on location, as price gains were the highest in the South East district, while prices remained just below last year's levels in the City Centre.

There have also been notable differences within this market depending on price range. The months of supply has declined significantly for product priced below $400,000. This decline is likely contributing to some of the differing price trends throughout the districts of the city.

Row

Year-over-year gains in the row sector continued in November and were enough to cause year-to-date sales to remain at levels similar to last year. Bucking the trend from other sectors, new listings rose compared to last year, easing some of the downward pressure on inventory levels. The months of supply stayed above four months, higher than levels seen in both the detached and semi-detached sectors, but a significant improvement from the nearly six months of supply recorded last November.

Row prices also showed signs of stabilizing, as November prices remained comparable to last year's levels. Despite some of the monthly gains, on a year-to-date basis, prices remain nearly two per cent lower than last year's levels and have eased across all districts except the City Centre, West and East.

Apartment Condominium

Following seven months of year-over-year declines, apartment condo sales improved over last year's levels. However, last November was an exceptionally weak month for apartment sales. Year-to-date apartment sales totalled 2,209, a 13 percent decline from last year and nearly 30 percent lower than longer-term averages.

New listings did ease slightly this month, placing some downward pressure on inventory that was missing earlier in the year. However, inventory remains higher than last year's levels and the months of supply is still elevated at nearly eight months. The oversupply in this market continues to place downward pressure on prices, which not only eased relative to last month, but remain one percent lower than last year's prices. The only district to see some positive momentum is the North, where prices rose slightly compared to last year.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales continue to record strong gains in November as year-to-date sales reached 1,318, a 15 percent increase over last year. The rise in sales was also met with a pullback in new listings. This is causing further declines in inventory levels and is keeping the months of supply just over two months. This is the tightest months of supply figure recorded for November since 2014 where the months of supply was below two months.

Persistently low months of supply, especially in the detached sector of the market continue to place upward pressure on prices. In November, the benchmark price was $342,900, trending up over last month and over two percent above last year's levels.

Cochrane

For the sixth consecutive month, sales activity rose over last year's levels causing year-to-date sales to total 651. This is a 12 percent increase over last year. However, unlike other areas the level of new listings in Cochrane also rose. The months of supply rose to nearly four months. However, this is still relatively low for November as the town has typically averaged seven months over the past five years.

With generally tighter market conditions in the town, prices have trended up for the past six months. As of November, the benchmark price was $417,800 and is four percent higher than last year. Despite the recent gains, year-to-date figures remain nearly one percent below last year's levels.

Okotoks

Despite the decline in new listings, sales continued to improve causing further inventory declines. Inventory in November dropped to 95 units and is nearly half the levels we typically see this time of year. With a sale to new listings ratio above 100 percent and a months of supply of just over two months, this is one of the tightest Novembers recorded since 2014.

The general tightness in the market has been driven by the detached sector and is the only category that has seen year-over-year gains in prices. As of November, the detached benchmark price was $441,100, nearly two per cent higher than last November.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

- Posted by Calgary Real Estate Board