The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenarios—one with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs.

While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canada’s exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar.

The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027.

In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January.

In the current tariff scenario, after contracting in the second quarter, GDP growth picks up to about 1% in the second half of this year as exports stabilize and household spending increases gradually. In this scenario, economic slack persists in 2026 and diminishes as growth picks up to close to 2% in 2027. In the de-escalation scenario, economic growth rebounds faster, while in the escalation scenario, the economy contracts through the rest of this year.

CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. Excluding taxes, inflation rose to 2.5% in June, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. This largely reflects an increase in non-energy goods prices. High shelter price inflation remains the main contributor to overall inflation, but it continues to ease. Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%.

In the current tariff scenario, total inflation stays close to 2% over the scenario horizon as the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly offset. There are risks around this inflation scenario. As the alternative scenarios illustrate, lower tariffs would reduce the direct upward pressure on inflation and higher tariffs would increase it. In addition, many businesses are reporting costs related to sourcing new suppliers and developing new markets. These costs could add upward pressure to consumer prices.

With still high uncertainty, the Canadian economy showing some resilience, and ongoing pressures on underlying inflation, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate unchanged. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs related to tariffs and the reconfiguration of trade. If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.

Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases from tariffs and trade disruptions are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. 

We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 17, 2025.

Courtesy The Bank of Canada

There are many things you can change about a home. Need more space? Is the kitchen outdated? Does the place “need work?” These can all be fixed with a renovation. One thing you can’t change, is the location. That’s why it’s so important to do your research and choose a location that not only fits your needs now, but in the future as well. In this article, we’ll guide you through five steps to help you choose the best location to buy a home.

Choosing the Best Location to Buy a Home

When shopping for a home, it can be easy to get blinded by the dazzle of a home’s features, like a brand-new kitchen or the pool in the backyard. However, it is critical to take time to think about where you would like to live, before you can dive deeper into the type of home you would like to live in.

According to a new survey by REMAX Canada, four in five Canadians said they would recommend their neighbourhood as a great place to live. That tells us that this is on Canadians’ radar, and they’ve done their research.

Furthermore, three-quarters of Canadians said they have made compromises to live where they do—highlighting an important reality that, sometimes, compromises have to be made to attain some of the must-haves on your list or criteria. With that said, 57 per cent of Canadians said despite their compromises, they love their neighbourhoods and agree that their lifestyle aligns with the neighbourhood they live in.

Let’s explore some lifestyle factors and how they may influence your choice of location.

Step 1: Urban versus Suburban

There are pros and cons to living in both, but one important factor is the cost of living in each location. If you prefer to live in the city, look at all your options to see what your budget will get you in the city, versus what it will get you in the suburbs. After weighing both options, the question remains, urban or suburban?

Step 2: Explore the Neighbourhood

Depending on if you are a young professional, are raising a young family, or are downsizing, you are likely looking for a likeminded community and neighbourhood where you will fit in. While conducting online research is a great place to start, nothing is better than first hand experience. These tips will help you choose the perfect neighbourhood.

Access more information about Calgary Northwest neighbourhoods here: https://vianigroup.com/calgary_northwest_communities.html

Access more information about Calgary Northeast neighbourhoods here: https://vianigroup.com/calgary_northeast_communities.html

Access more information about Calgary Southwest neighbourhoods here: https://vianigroup.com/calgary_southwest_communities.html

Access more information about Calgary Southeast neighbourhoods here: https://vianigroup.com/calgary_southeast_communities.html

Step 3: Research Proximity to Work and School

Commute times have gotten longer in Canada’s biggest cities, and the time spent getting to and from work is a deciding factor for many, when choosing where to work. Well, the same applies when choosing where to live. When choosing the best neighbourhood to buy a home, take some time to research the proximity to work, schools and other places you frequent on a regular basis. With that being said, jobs can come and go for a variety of reasons, so while the location of your workplace should factor into your decision on the best neighbourhood to buy a home, it shouldn’t be the only factor.

Step 4: Think About Family & Friends

Finding the right location means considering the distance to family and friends, and how long it will take you to get to them. If a change in location will mean you are further away from the people closest to you, you should consider if it is still the right option for you.

Step 5: Look Into Crime Rates

One of the main reasons your house feels like home is because as soon as you walk through the door, you feel safe. Getting a good understanding of what happens in the neighbourhood you are considering moving to can easily be done by conducting research on the crime rates in that area, compared to the other areas you are considering.

Although you may just be starting your home search, researching locations is one of the most important first steps. Your REMAX agent is a great resource for information on the many neighbourhoods within your city. Once you’ve decided on a general area, you can zero in and start the search for your new home!

Step 6: Contact us

Be in touch with us to help you with your next purchase.

www.vianigroup.com

Inventory levels in June continued to rise, both over last month’s and last year’s levels. By the end of the month, inventory reached 6,941 units, returning to levels reported in 2021, or prior to the surge in population growth. While sales have remained consistent with long-term trends despite a decline from recent months, higher levels of new listings compared to sales have contributed to the inventory gain.

All property types have reported gains in inventory, but both row and apartment style homes reported inventory levels over 30 percent higher than long-term trends, while supply for detached and semi-detached units are only slightly higher than typical levels.

“Supply has improved across rental, resale and new home markets, allowing for more choice for those considering their housing options,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “The additional choice combined with no further declines in lending rates, persistent uncertainty and concerns of price adjustments is keeping many potential purchasers on the sidelines. This is weighing on home prices, especially for apartment and row-style homes.”

The unadjusted benchmark price was $586,200 in June, lower than last month and over three per cent lower than last year. Much of the citywide decline was driven by apartment and row-style homes, which are over three per cent lower than last year. Meanwhile, detached prices have remained relatively stable and semi-detached homes are still slightly higher than last year.

The steeper price declines for apartment and row style homes are reflective of those segments shifting toward a market that favours the buyer with nearly four months of supply. Meanwhile conditions are relatively balanced for detached and semi-detached homes. Overall conditions in Calgary have changed, but not enough to erase the significant growth in prices that have occurred over the past four years.

Detached

Sales in June were 1,194 units, six per cent lower than both last year and last month's activity. Sales activity did vary depending on location and price range, with declines in resale sales mostly for higher priced homes that likely face more competition from new homes. On a location basis, the steepest declines in sales occurred in the City Centre and the North East at over 20 per cent, while year-over-year gains were reported in the West, and South East districts. 

While sales did vary, inventories and new listings improved across most price ranges and districts in the city. However, it is only the North East district that is experiencing conditions that favour the buyer, causing prices to decline by four per cent compared to last June. As of June, the unadjusted benchmark price in Calgary was $764,300, less than one per cent lower than both last month and last year’s price.

Semi-Detached

Sales activity continued to slow this month, contributing to the year-to-date decline of nearly 12 per cent. At the same time new listings have generally been rising compared to last year, supporting inventory gains and a shift to balanced conditions. As of June, the months of supply was 2.6 months, a significant improvement over the tight conditions reported last year.

Additional supply choice has slowed the pace of price growth for semi-detached homes. As of June, the benchmark price in the city was $696,400, similar to last month, and over one per cent higher than last June. Price movements did range by district, as homes in the City Centre are over three per cent higher than last year and at record high levels, while prices in the North, North East, and East districts are all over two per cent lower than last year and three per cent lower than last year’s peak price.

Row

New listings continue to rise relative to the number of sales in the market, as the sales-to-new listings ratio in June dropped to 50 percent. This contributed to further inventory gains with 1,167 units available at the end of the month. While sales are still higher than long-term trends, the recent gains in inventory levels have caused the months of supply to push above three months. Within the city, conditions range with nearly six months of supply in the North East and two and a half months of supply in the North West.

Higher supply levels relative to demand are weighing on prices which, at a June benchmark price of $450,300, are down over last month and three per cent lower than last year’s levels. However, as the level of oversupply does range across the districts, so too do the price movements. The City Centre has seen the most stability in prices this month and is only one per cent below last year’s peak. Meanwhile, the North East is reporting year-over-year price declines of nearly six per cent.

Apartment Condominium

June new listings and sales both eased over last month’s and last year’s levels. However, with 1,024 new listings and 532 sales, inventories continued to rise and the months of supply pushed up to nearly four months. Slower international migration numbers are weighing on housing demand just as supply levels are rising, which is having a larger impact on apartment style homes.

The rising supply choice, both in new and resale markets, has caused resale prices to trend down again this month, leaving June’s benchmark price of $333,500 over three per cent lower than last year’s levels. While prices have eased across all districts in the city, the largest year-over-year declines are occurring in the North East, North and South East districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Thanks to a sharp decline in detached activity, sales in June fell to 164 units. The pullback in sales was met with 324 new listings, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to drop to 51 per cent, the lowest ratio reported in June since 2018. The wider spread between sales and new listings drove further inventory gains and for the first time since 2020 the months of supply was above three months. The additional supply choice has weighed on resale prices, which have trended down for the second consecutive month. In June the benchmark price was $538,300, nearly three per cent lower than levels seen last year at this time.

Cochrane

Gains for detached and semi-detached sales were offset by pullbacks for row and apartment units, as June sales remained relatively unchanged over last year. The 101 sales in June were met with 171 new listings and the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 59 per cent. This slowed the pace of inventory growth, keeping the months of supply just below three months. While conditions are more balanced than they have been, prices in the area continue to rise albeit at a slower pace. As of June, the unadjusted benchmark price was $593,700, nearly one per cent higher than last month and four per cent higher than last June.

Okotoks

While levels are better than last year, both sales and new listings trended down in June, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to rise to 87 per cent. This prevented any further monthly inventory gains and ensured that the months of supply remained below two months in June. While conditions remain tight in Okotoks, more supply in the broader region has likely prevented stronger price growth in the Town of Okotoks. As of June, the unadjusted benchmark price was $632,800, similar to last month and nearly three per cent higher than last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.