Over 90% of homebuyers and sellers know RE/MAX
OCTOBER HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
Nov. 1, 2022
October sales eased compared to last year’s levels, mostly due to slower activity in the detached sector.
However, with 1,857 sales this month, levels are still stronger than long-term trends and activity reported prior to the pandemic. Year-to-date sales have reached 26,823 and with only two months to go, 2022 will likely post a record year in terms of sales.
“Calgary hasn’t seen the same degree of pullback in housing sales like other parts of Canada, thanks to persistently strong demand for our higher density product,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While our city is not immune to the impact that inflation and higher rates are having, strong employment growth, positive migration flows and a stronger commodity market are helping offset some of that impact.”
New listings also trended down this month causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 85 per cent and inventories to trend down. Much of the inventory decline has been driven by product priced below $500,000.
While conditions are not as tight as what was seen earlier in the year, with only two months of supply, conditions remain tighter than historical levels. We are also seeing divergent trends in the market with conditions continuing to favour the seller in the lower-price ranges and shifting to more balanced conditions in the upper-price ranges.
As of October, prices have eased by four per cent relative to the highs reached in May. This is considered a relatively small adjustment when considering price movements in other large cities. It is also important to note that the October benchmark price is still nearly 10 per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Detached
Sales growth in the over $700,000 price range this month were not enough to offset the declines in the lower-price ranges, causing detached sales to ease by over 29 per cent compared to last year. Limited supply growth in the lower-price ranges continue to keep conditions exceptionally tight for lower-priced detached homes.
In October, inventory levels for detached homes were under 2,000 units, nearly 35 per cent lower than typical levels reported for the month. Moreover, over 42 per cent of the inventory falls in the upper-price ranges of the market. This is likely creating a situation where pricing trends will vary depending on price range.
Overall, detached prices did trend down relative to last month and peak levels in May but remain nearly 12 per cent higher than levels reported last October. The strongest year-over-year price gains have occurred in the North and South East districts.
Semi-Detached
While sales remain lower than last year’s levels in October, recent pullbacks have not offset gains from earlier in the year and year-to-date sales improved by nearly three per cent. A pullback in new listings relative to sales caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to push above 80 per cent this month and inventories to ease, leaving the months of supply just over two months.
The benchmark price, while easing slightly compared to last month, remained over nine per cent higher than last year’s levels. Year-over-year price gains have varied from a low of nearly eight per cent in the City Centre to a high of 16 per cent in the North district.
Row
Row sales continue to rise relative to last year supporting a year-to-date gain of nearly 42 per cent. At the same time, new listings this month eased ensuring that the sales-to-new-listings ratio remain exceptionally tight at 106 per cent. Falling inventories and improving sales have ensured this market continues to favour the seller with less than two months of supply. This has also prevented the same adjustment in price.
As of October, the benchmark price was $361,200, less than one per cent lower than the peak achieved in June of this year. Overall, prices remained nearly 15 per cent higher than last year’s levels. The strongest price gains occurred in the South East, North East and North districts.
Apartment Condominium
Apartment sales continue to rise over levels reported last year contributing to the year-to-date increase of over 56 per cent. Improving sales were also met with gains in new listings, but as the growth in sales outpaced the new listings activity, inventory levels continue to trend down. As of October, the months of supply remained just below three months, the lowest level recorded in October since 2013.
In October, the benchmark price was $277,800, similar to last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Some of the strongest price gains have occurred in areas outside of the City Centre. Despite persistent price growth, overall prices remain nine per cent below previous highs set back in 2014.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Airdrie
Easing sales over the past several months have not been enough to offset earlier gains as year-to-date sales reached 2,269 units, over 11 per cent higher than last year and on pace to hit a new record high. The growth in sales was possible thanks to a boost in new listings this year. However, the gains in new listings did little to impact inventory levels which remained well below levels traditionally seen in the market in October.
While conditions are not as tight as they were earlier in the year, the months of supply remained exceptionally tight at one and a half months. Despite persistently tight conditions, prices have trended lower from the earlier highs. Airdrie hit a record high price back in April of this year at $510,700, prices have since fallen by six per cent since then yet remain over 14 per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Cochrane
A pullback in new listings relative to sales activity caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to push up to 90 per cent once again, causing inventories to trend down relative to last month. While overall inventories still remain higher than the exceptionally low levels seen last year, levels are still well below what is typically seen in the market.
While prices have eased off recent highs, at a benchmark price of $507,000, prices remain over 16 per cent higher than last years levels. Price growth has been mostly driven by the detached and semi-detached sector which have reported year-over-year gains exceeding 18 per cent.
Okotoks
A pullback in new listings likely weighed on sales this month as the sales-to-new-listings ratio pushed above 100 per cent causing inventories to remain exceptionally low for October. While conditions are still not as tight as they were earlier in the year, the shift this month did little to support more balanced conditions.
Persistently tight conditions did slow the pace of adjustment in prices as the benchmark price was $537,800 in October. While prices have eased from the high reported in May, they remain over 11 per cent higher than last years levels.
Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.
Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.
One question many Canadians are asking is are higher fixed mortgage rates here to stay? At the September policy meeting, the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised interest rates by 75 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.25 per cent, maintaining its hawkish approach to monetary policy. The central bank signalled that it would be prepared to keep pulling the trigger on rate hikes until there is sufficient evidence the consumer price index (CPI) is showing signs of coming down.
Although the Canadian annual inflation rate has eased from its 30-year high of 8.1 percent in August, officials conceded that this was driven mainly by gasoline prices. The national economy endured “a further broadening of price pressures, particularly in services.” As a result, “the policy interest rate will need to rise further,” and additional tightening was on the horizon to ensure price stability.
“Given the outlook for inflation, the Governing Council still judges that the policy interest rate will need to rise further,” the BoC said in a statement. “Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. As the effects of tighter monetary policy work through the economy, we will be assessing how much higher interest rates need to go to return inflation to target. The Governing Council remains resolute in its commitment to price stability and will continue to take action as required to achieve the two-per-cent inflation target.”
Now that rates are normalizing from their pandemic-era lows, borrowing costs are increasing for credit products and services. Of course, this also means higher returns on bank deposits
But many buyers and homeowners have a major question: What about mortgage rates?
In response to the central bank’s policy decision, most Canadian financial institutions, including the Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, and Toronto-Dominion Bank, raised their prime lending rates by three-quarters to 5.45 percent. This is up from the previous prime lending rate of 4.70 per cent.
This matters because it is the starting point for lenders’ loan calculations. In other words, it will trigger a significant boost in borrowing costs for many Canadian consumers
Many economists, market analysts, and homeowners are concerned that this will add pressure to the Canadian real estate market. While this is true, the effects of higher mortgage rates on the nation’s housing industry are not as cut and dry as experts would purport
Variable-rate mortgages will be immediately impacted by higher mortgage rates. Homeowners who are due for renewal on their fixed-rate mortgages within the next couple of years will also feel the financial squeeze of higher mortgage rates. Homebuyers will now need to contend with a higher mortgage rates compared to what others received a year ago.
A rising-rate environment in Canada’s housing sector is expected to create a ripple effect throughout the economy. Because homeowners will contend with greater debt-servicing payments, many will inevitably slim down their budgets and cut back spending on other areas, be it trips to restaurants or buying apparel.
But is this the new normal for the Canadian real estate market? Yes.
Governor Tiff Macklem has been clear that he intends to tighten policy a lot more until the central bank successfully tames inflation. While the institution noted that it could not contain the supply component of rampant inflation, it does possess the tools to douse red-hot demand. So, as rates go up, it will trim demand, whether it is for labour or real estate.
The consensus among many central banks is that they will lift their respective benchmark policy rates and leave them there for an extended period. When many Canadians acquired a home during a historical bubble, the debt factor could be troubling for new homeowners.
In addition, with higher interest rates on the way, it will add to the minimum mortgage stress test. But while it is unlikely federal regulators will reform the stress test in this environment, other industry experts think it might be time to take another look at it. The thought is that it might be placing too many buyers at a disadvantage amid rising rates.
RE/MAX expects average residential prices to moderate downward by 2.2 percent through the end of 2022. However, it appears that some market experts have thrown in the towel for the Canadian real estate market, with downturn forecasts as high as 20 percent. And climbing mortgage rates will not do the industry any favours moving forward.
“We see the downturn intensifying and spreading as buyers take a wait-and-see approach while ascertaining the impact of higher lending rates,” wrote Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist with Royal Bank of Canada, in a research note.
That being said, there is some hope that perhaps the five-year fixed rate mortgage could have already peaked, as long as the Bank of Canada does not approve any supersized rate hikes for the rest of the year or heading into 2023.
Ultimately, the effects of rising interest rates are already being seen in the Canadian real estate market. In July, national home sales tumbled by 5.3 per cent month-over-month, while the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tumbled by 1.7 percent month-over-month, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The next few months of data should give the industry a clear picture of what to expect in 2023.
Courtesy RE/MAX Canada
RE/MAX brokers and agents anticipate prices in the Canadian housing market to ease by 2.2 percent this fall, due to high inflation, rising interest rates and economic uncertainty
Rising interest rates have prompted 44 percent of Canadians to temporarily shelf their home-buying aspirations, while 34 percent say they won’t hold on purchasing a home for the foreseeable future
Recession worries have impelled 41 percent of Canadians to wait to purchase/sell their home in fall 2022
Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, September 28, 2022 – RE/MAX brokers and agents are anticipating the national average residential sale price in the Canadian housing market to decline 2.2 percent in the final months of the year (September-December), according to RE/MAX’s 2022 Fall Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report. This market moderation comes on the heels of rising interest rates, record-high inflation and broader global and economic uncertainties that have impacted consumer confidence and market activity. Bucking the downward trend, seven out of 30 Canadian housing markets analyzed are likely to experience modest price appreciation between 1.5 and seven percent. Meanwhile, RE/MAX brokers and agents expect a decline in sales this fall, in 18 out of 30 markets surveyed.
In a survey of RE/MAX brokers and agents, 25 out of 30 said rising interest rates have affected activity in their local residential market this year, with some indicating that this has been the biggest factor impacting homebuyer and seller confidence – a trend that is likely to continue for the remainder of 2022. These insights are supported by a new Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada, which reveals that 44 percent of Canadians agree that rising interest rates are compelling them to hold on buying a property this fall, while 34 percent say they won’t hold.
“While we are still facing significant housing supply shortages across the Canadian housing market, many regions are experiencing softer sales activity given recent interest rate hikes. This provides some reprieve from the unprecedented demand and unsustainable price increases we’ve seen across Canada through 2021 and in early 2022,” says Christopher Alexander, President at RE/MAX Canada. “However, the current lull in the market is only temporary. Until housing supply increases, these ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ cycles will likely be a recurring event.”
“Despite the fact that nearly half of Canadians are waiting to buy or sell a home, we’re confident that as economic conditions improve by mid-2023, activity will resume,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Timing the market for short-term investment is extremely difficult and rarely successful. But as a long-term investment, the Canadian housing market continues to yield solid returns. If someone needs to buy or sell, regardless of those cyclical peaks and valleys, being informed and working with an experienced real estate professional can help consumers clarify some of those unknowns and make the best decision possible.”
RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market this fall and share their estimated outlook for the remaining months of 2022 (September-December).
In regions such as Vancouver, BC, Victoria, BC, Kelowna, BC, and Edmonton, AB, RE/MAX brokers reported rising interest rates as a factor impacting local market activity, resulting in softening consumer confidence, fewer multiple offers from buyers, and a shift toward more balanced conditions between buyers and sellers. In all regions analyzed in Western Canada and the Prairies, with the exception of Calgary, AB and Edmonton, AB, the average residential sale price is expected to decline between zero and 6.5 percent.
In Calgary, AB, interest rate hikes and recession worries have not had a notable effect on the market, due to the region’s relative affordability. As such, a modest three-per-cent price increase is expected through the remainder of the year. In Edmonton, AB, rising interest rates have had the greatest impact on homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000, while those priced at $400,000 or less are still relatively affordable and a good entry point into the market, despite the current economic climate. Edmonton is likely to experience a modest price increase of 1.5 percent for the remainder of the year. In both Vancouver, BC and Edmonton, AB, demand for luxury properties has remained stable, with interest rate hikes having a minimal impact on this segment of the market. This is expected to continue into the fall months. Low inventory remains a pressing concern in Kelowna, BC, Victoria, BC, Vancouver, BC and Calgary, AB, and is expected to place upward pressure on home prices in 2023 and beyond. In contrast, recent commercial and industrial developments have eased inventory concerns in Winnipeg, MB for the time being.
Much like other provinces across the country, Ontario has not been immune to the impacts of rising interest rates. Many markets including Oakville, Windsor, Barrie, Durham, Kingston and Kitchener-Waterloo, anticipate – and in some cases already experiencing – a reduction in the number of units sold over the coming months. Apart from Oakville and Muskoka, average residential sale prices in Ontario are likely to remain steady or decrease between two to 10 percent in the fall months.
Similar to Western Canada, the luxury market has remained resilient and in demand among buyers in Oakville, despite rising interest rates and a looming recession – a contributing factor to the modest two-per-cent average residential sale price increase expected in Oakville this fall. Muskoka continues to attract homebuyers to the area, while simultaneously, many sellers are eager to sell before year-end. Given a steady stream of demand, Muskoka is expected to experience a modest five-per-cent increase in average residential sale price this fall. In Peterborough, interest rate hikes and the subsequent effects on the stress test have eroded affordability in the area, which is the main factor contributing to the seven-per-cent decrease in average residential sale price expected in the coming months. The return of conditional offers has been a prevalent trend across the province, including in Kingston, Kitchener-Waterloo, Muskoka and Peterborough. Echoing many regions across Canada, Durham, London, Sudbury, Ottawa, the Lakelands and the Greater Toronto housing market are expected to regain balance in 2023, albeit with low inventory continuing to place upward pressure on prices. As one of the more affordable markets in Ontario, Thunder Bay is unlikely to experience any significant fluctuations in average residential sale prices this fall.
Similar to Western Canada and Ontario, economic factors such as rising interest rates and a possible recession have contributed to decelerated home-buying activity in the region. Charlottetown, PEI experienced immediate impacts as interest rates rose, with the number of sale transactions reduced by almost half on a month-over-month basis, particularly among properties in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 price range. Despite these circumstances, Atlantic Canada continues to attract out-of-province buyers due to its affordability, relative to the rest of Canada. The majority of Atlantic Canada housing markets analyzed are expected to experience modest price increases through the end of 2022, including Halifax, NS (+1.5%), Moncton, NB (+6%) and St. John’s, NL (+7%). The outlier is Charlottetown, PEI, where average residential sale price is expected to decline by two percent in the fall months.
Housing affordability continues to attract buyers in Moncton, who have been able to leverage the recent decrease in demand to negotiate with sellers and include conditions on purchases. Meanwhile in St. John’s, NL, economic pressure from rising interest rates has resulted in extended rent periods by would-be buyers, despite this region anticipating an increase of seven percent in average residential sale prices. The trend has been further exacerbated by low housing inventory. However, recent “green” government announcements and initiatives are anticipated to boost the local economy and in tandem, the housing market. In spite of concerns over supply falling short of demand, Charlottetown, PEI is expected to regain more balance in 2023. However, inflation coupled with the increased cost of living will likely result in a moderate two-per-cent decline in average residential sale prices through the end of 2022.
Courtesy RE/MAX Canada
SEPTEMBER HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
Oct. 3, 2022
Strong sales for condominium apartment and row properties was not enough to offset declines reported for other property types. This caused city sales to ease by nearly 12 per cent compared to last year.
However, with 1,901 sales in September, activity is still far stronger than levels achieved prior to the pandemic and is well above long-term trends for September. Despite recent pullbacks in sales, and thanks to strong levels earlier in the year, year-to-date sales remain 15 per cent higher than last year’s levels.
“While demand is easing, especially for higher priced detached and semi-detached product, purchasers are still active in the affordable segments of the market, cushioning much of the impact on sales,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “At the same time, we are seeing new listings ease, preventing the market from becoming oversupplied and supporting more balanced conditions.”
In September, new listings declined by ten per cent. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 72 per cent, it was enough to prevent any gain in inventory levels, which declined over last month and were nearly 21 per cent lower than last year’s levels. The adjustments in both sales and supply levels have caused the months of supply to remain relatively low at less than three months.
The shift to more balanced conditions is causing some adjustments to home prices. While prices have slid from the highs seen in May, as of September, benchmark prices remain 11 per cent higher than last year and six per cent higher than levels reported at the beginning of the year.
Detached
For the sixth consecutive month, sales activity has slowed in the detached market and is now offsetting the gains recorded in the first quarter. The recent decline in sales has been mostly driven by a reduction in the under $500,000 segment of the market, as a significant reduction in supply for those price ranges have left little options for potential purchasers.
At the same time, detached sales continue to improve for homes priced between $600,000 - $999,9999. This higher price range group has reported the largest growth in new listings and overall supply levels.
While the overall detached market is far more balanced than it was earlier this year, for homes priced below $500,000 conditions remain relatively tight. This is likely causing divergent trends in pricing activity based on price range.
Overall, detached prices eased by nearly one per cent over the last month with the largest monthly decline occurring in the City Centre district. Despite monthly adjustments, prices remain nearly 13 per cent higher than last year.
Semi-Detached
Further pullback in sales this month was not enough to offset gains from earlier in the year as year-to-date sales remained six per cent higher than last year’s levels. While new listings in this segment can vary month-to-month, year-to-date new listings have remained just slightly lower than levels achieved last year. This kept inventories at levels that are still far below long-term trends.
The recent pullback in sales was enough to cause the months of supply to push up relative to levels seen earlier in the year. However, with less than three months of supply, conditions remain relatively tight for this property type.
While conditions do remain tight, prices still trended down following higher than expected gains earlier this year. Overall, benchmark prices remain over 10 per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Row
Row sales activity improved over last year’s levels, contributing to the year-to-date record high pace of sales. Recent pullbacks in new listings and strong sales activity have caused inventory levels to remain low, keeping the months of supply below two months.
With conditions remaining tight, prices stay mostly unchanged compared to last month and are 15 per cent higher than prices reported in September 2021. The highest year-over-year price gains occurred in the North district.
Apartment Condominium
With a new September record, apartment condominium sales continue to rise relative to last year, contributing to year-to-date sales of 5,026, a 60 per cent gain over last year. While new listings also improved so far this year, it has not been enough to prevent some easing in inventory levels.
Unlike the other sectors, since 2016, inventories have generally been higher for apartment condominium. It is only the strong demand this year that has caused this market to shift from buyers’ market conditions reported throughout most of last year to one that is now relatively balanced.
Relatively balanced conditions prevented any significant shift in prices this month compared to last month and overall, apartment condominium prices remain over 10 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Despite recent gains, prices remain below the 2014 high.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Airdrie
Both sales and new listings eased in September, preventing any significant shift in inventory levels this month. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 89 per cent and a months-of-supply still below two months, conditions remain relatively tight in the market.
While inventory levels remain low, purchasers are more cautious than they were a few months ago which is weighing on home prices. In September, the benchmark price eased by nearly two per cent compared to last month but remains 16 per cent higher than the previous year.
Cochrane
Sales eased for the sixth consecutive month in September. This caused year-to-date sales to reach 970 units, a three per cent decline over the previous year. At the same time, new listings have risen relative to the low levels seen last year, helping support gains in inventory levels.
As of September, there were 165 units available in inventory. While this is higher than last year’s levels, this is still nearly 30 per cent lower than levels traditionally seen in September.
Shifts in both supply and demand are causing the market to shift toward more balanced conditions and it is also taking some of the pressure off home prices. In September, the benchmark price eased by nearly two per cent, totaling to $508,800. Despite the monthly pullback, prices are still over 16 per cent higher than September 2021 prices.
Okotoks
Supply levels continue to be a challenge in Okotoks. While new listings have improved over last year, sales have generally kept pace as the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained elevated at 81 per cent. At the same time, inventories remain nearly 50 per cent lower than levels traditionally seen in September, keeping the months of supply below two months.
While conditions remain relatively tight, purchasers are more cautious than they were earlier this year, causing monthly prices to ease by nearly two per cent. Despite the downward trend recorded over the past four months, prices remain over 12 per cent higher than last year.
Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.
Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.
Affordability is a hot topic in Canadian housing market. Rising interest rates, intended to combat inflation, are significantly impacting homebuyers and in turn, sellers. Thus, home prices have begun to moderate from their record highs, but any savings is being offset by the higher cost of borrowing. It is no surprise that affordability is such a focus for Canadians. RE/MAX® Canada’s 2022 Housing Affordability Report outlines the concerns of home buyers from coast to coast.
According to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX, Canadians are ready to relocate in order to find a house they can afford. Sixty-four percent of survey respondents said they would pack up and head to a new city. Forty-three percent of survey respondents said the high price was a barrier to entry into the Canadian housing market. Other hurdles include:
Is there hope for homebuyers facing a financial crunch? In the face of demandand rising interest rates, some buyers are opting to sit on the sidelines for now. “The demand that was so strong just a few months ago has not gone away, but some buyers will likely stay on the sidelines until they see what happens with borrowing costs and prices. As they re-enter the market, they’ll find a bit more selection, but not as much as might be expected,” said Jill Oudil, Chair of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
WESTERN CANADA
Western Canada is home to some of the most affordable homes in Canada but has some markets that have seen significant growth.
Competition from out-of-town or move-over buyers has put upward pressure on home prices year-over-year in a number of markets, including:
The most significant factors impacting housing affordability in Vancouver and Victoria include the high cost of living in Canada’s second most expensive city, inflation and the housing supply shortage.
In Edmonton, residential construction delays, out-of-region buyers driving up demand, and rising interest rates contribute to affordability challenges. In Calgary, the primary factor is increasing interest rates.
When faced with an affordability crisis, Westerners turn to alternative living arrangements. Some regions across Western Canada are experiencing trends such as renting part of a primary residence to supplement monthly mortgage payments.
For those willing to move, Western Canada presents four of the most affordable markets in Canada. Red Deer, Regina, Brandon, and Edmonton top our list of the most affordable places to buy real estate in Canada.
Due to rising demand and limited supply, regions outside of Toronto have experienced some of the highest year-over-year price increases in the first half of 2022. The markets include:
Alternatives to traditional home ownership have also seen an uptick in some Ontario regions, as identified by RE/MAX brokers in Hamilton and Windsor. Some of the most significant factors impacting housing affordability in Ontario, highlighted by brokers in Windsor, Sudbury and Ottawa, among others, include low or diminishing housing supply, rising interest rates, cost of living and inflation, out-of-province/out-of-region buyers, and economic and employment conditions.
Economists from TD expect declining sales numbers and prices in Ontario in 2023. Sales activity in the Ontario real estate market is anticipated to endure a 31.7-per-cent crash this year and a 13.3-per-cent drop next year. On the pricing front, TD Economics projects a gain of 3.8 percent this year and a decline of 9.4 percent in 2023.
In Atlantic Canada, Halifax has experienced significant year-over-year price growth (+23.59% from $460,787 in 2021 to $569,475 in 2022). The price jump results from the move-over buyers migrating to the region for its relative affordability.
More modest price increases were experienced in St. John’s, NL (+6.23% from $313,364 in 2021 to $332,900 in 2022), Moncton, NB (+2.11 % from $331,003 in 2021 to $337,992 in 2022) and Charlottetown, PEI (+29.30% from $355,000 in 2021 to $459,000 in 2022).
St. John’s and Moncton are featured in the top 10 most affordable places to buy in Canada, with average prices under $340,000 in both markets.
Affordability in regions across Atlantic Canada is impacted by rising interest rates, low housing supply, out-of-province/out-of-region buyers, immigration, and insufficient new-home construction.
What’s In Store for the Canadian Housing Market?
Ultra-low interest rates and low supply contributed to record-high price growth throughout the pandemic. But, there are other factors to consider. As Benjamin Tal reminds us, “in the long-run, factors such as rising immigration levels putting further strain on demand, limited housing supply, supply chain hold-ups, and the shortage of skilled labourers will be the greatest hurdles in overcoming Canada’s housing affordability crisis. These must all be addressed in order to help balance supply.”
Elton Ash, Executive Vice President at RE/MAX Canada, noted that recent market moderation is overdue. “The shifts we are seeing in the Canadian housing market, with prices starting to ease across the country in tandem with softening demand and sales, are an overdue adjustment. A healthy housing market is characterized by price appreciation in the mid-to high-single digits, and many markets across Canada are re-entering that comfort zone.”
A possible recession is on the horizon, but recessions often bring strong rebounds, and real estate has traditionally been a safe bet. Looking ahead, urbanization will be a significant boon to future housing demand, as Canada’s urban population is projected to grow by 10 million by 2050.
One key to easing the affordability crisis is more homes. A new study by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) determined that the country needs approximately 3.5 million affordable housing units by the year 2030 to accomplish the federal government’s affordability objective. This is in addition to the 2.3 million new housing units already on track to be built by 2030.
Shifting interest rates, housing supply, and the state of the economy are all critical factors to monitor as we enter 2023 and see what the real estate market has in store.
Courtesy of RE/MAX Canada
City of Calgary, September 1, 2022 – August sales activity was comparable to the strong levels recorded last year and well above long-term trends for the month.
While sales have remained relatively strong, there continues to be a shift towards more affordable options as the year-over-year pullback in detached sales was nearly matched by gains for multi-family product types.
“While higher lending rates have slowed activity in the detached market, we are still seeing homebuyers shift to more affordable options which is keeping sales activity relatively strong,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “This makes Calgary different than some of the larger cities in the country which have recorded significant pullbacks in sales.”
At the same time, new listings continue to trend down, preventing any supply gains or a substantial shift in the months of supply.
Despite year-over-year gains in new listings, the spread between new listings and sales this month narrowed compared to the past three months. This caused total inventory to trend down and prevented any significant shift in the months of supply. The months of supply in August remained at just above two months, not at tight as earlier in the year, but still below levels traditionally seen this time of year.
For the third month in a row, benchmark prices eased declining to $531,800. While the reduction reflects shifting market conditions, it is important to note that previous gains are not lost, and prices remain over 11 per cent higher than last year.
Detached
Sales continued to trend down compared to levels seen earlier in the year and August of last year. While the recent declines have not offset the strong gains reported earlier in the year, conditions are changing in this segment of the market. At the same time, we have seen listings continue to ease in for lower-priced homes. This is causing persistently tight conditions for homes priced below $500,000. Meanwhile, supply gains in the higher price range of the market are supporting more balanced conditions.
Easing demand has had an impact on prices which have trended down relative to the high levels achieved in May. However, with a benchmark price of $633,000, levels are still over 13 per cent higher than last year.
Semi-Detached
There was a significant pullback in new listings relative to a slight easing of sales for semi-detached properties this month. This caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to push above 80 per cent for the first time since April while total inventory dropped relative to levels seen over the past several months and last year. Like the detached sector, conditions do vary depending on price ranges with the lower-price ranges continuing to see relatively tight market conditions.
Despite the adjustment this month, prices still trended down compared to May levels. However, like other property types, price levels are over 10 per cent higher than last year with a benchmark price of $569,300.
Row
Despite sales trending down relative to levels seen earlier in the year, the row-home market remains strong and year-to-date levels are nearly 50 per cent higher than last year. At the same time, there was a notable decline in new listings this month causing a decline in inventory levels. This prevented any significant adjustments to the months of supply which remained below two months.
While market conditions remain relatively tight, home prices have remained fairly stable over the past few months. Overall, the benchmark price for row properties in August was over 14 per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Apartment Condominium
Sales activity improved in August, contributing to year-to-date record sales of 4,576 units, which is an increase of 65 per cent compared to last year. Some of this growth was possible thanks to this segment of the market having more supply. However, the recent growth in sales relative to new listings has caused the supply gap to narrow.
Though conditions have shifted over the past month, prices remain relatively stable compared to July but are over 10 per cent higher than last year’s prices. Despite the recent gains in prices, apartment condominium sales remain below peak prices set back in 2014.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Airdrie
Sales in Airdrie continued a downward trend that began in April. While new listings have also trended down compared to earlier in the year, there are still more new listings on the market this month than there were last year. Overall, inventory levels are starting to rise from the exceptionally low levels, causing the months of supply to shift away from the strong seller market conditions.
Despite recent shifts in supply demand balances, with less than two months of supply conditions still remain tight. Nonetheless, prices continue to trend down from earlier in the year as purchasers become more cautious. While this has slowed the pace of growth, prices still remain over 18 per cent higher than last year’s levels.
Cochrane
In August, easing sales were met with gains in new listings, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to drop to 70 per cent in Cochrane. The rise in new listings compared to sales caused inventory gains, but levels are still far below what is typical for our market.
The gains in inventory did support a shift toward more balanced conditions, but with a month of supply still averaging just over two months, conditions remain tight. Benchmark prices in the centre remain relatively stable this month but is still nearly 17 per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Okotoks
In Okotoks, the residential benchmark price was $549,300, reflecting the third consecutive month where prices trended down. However, recent pullbacks have not offset earlier gains and prices are still 16 per cent higher than last year.
Home sales in Okotoks continued to trend down despite a gain in new listings supporting slightly higher inventory levels. These recent shifts in the market are supporting a shift away from the exceptionally strong sellers market conditions seen earlier in the year. However, with less than two months of supply market conditions still remain tight.
City of Calgary, Aug. 2, 2022 – Significant slowdowns in the detached and semi-detached market were nearly offset by sales growth in the apartment and row sectors. This left July sales three per cent lower than levels recorded last year. While this is the second month where sales activity has slowed, total residential sales this month are still amongst the strongest levels recorded in our market.
“Rising lending rates are causing shifts within the market and, as a result, new listings for higher-priced product are on the rise relative to sales activity,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
“Meanwhile, there continues to be a lack of supply for lower-priced detached and semi-detached product. This is driving consumers who are looking for affordable homes to purchase apartment- and row-style properties.”
Residential new listings in the city declined compared to what was seen in 2021, but when considering the dynamics between price ranges, we are seeing a different trend play out. Listings for homes priced below $500,000 fell by 18 per cent, while levels rose by 20 per cent for homes priced above $500,000. This has left conditions to remain relatively tight in the lower-end of the market while conditions are shifting toward more balanced levels in the upper-end of the market.
When considering the relationship between the supply and demand, the months of supply has continued to trend up from the exceptionally tight conditions seen earlier in the year. However, with just over two months of supply, the market remains far tighter than anything experienced throughout the recessionary period experienced prior to the pandemic.
As expected, the benchmark price did see some slippage relative to levels seen earlier in the year and rising lending rates have cooled much of the bidding war activity that was driving significant gains earlier in the year. However, prices currently remain over 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels, still outpacing forecasted price growth for the year.
“As we move forward, we do anticipate further rate gains will weigh on housing activity and prices, but not enough to completely offset the exceptionally strong gains recorded over the first half of the year,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
Detached
In July, detached sales reached 1,136, which is 19 per cent lower than last year’s levels. Higher lending rates are driving more consumers to look for affordable product, however, the detached sector has struggled with supply levels for lower-priced homes. While we are seeing balanced conditions in the upper-end of the market, conditions remain exceptionally tight in the lower-end of the market.
The decline in sales was mostly driven by pullbacks in the lower-price ranges due to lack of availability. Nearly 80 per cent of the inventory available is priced over $500,000 and new listings for homes priced under $500,000 are half of the levels seen last year.
With a benchmark price of $643,600 in July, levels are still nearly 15 per cent higher than last year. However, we are seeing some monthly adjustments as prices trended down across all districts in July compared to last month.
For the third month in a row, semi-detached sales saw less sales than levels reported a year ago. While year-to-date sales remain over 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels, this is a significant shift from the 40 per cent growth recorded after the first quarter of the year. This pullback in sales was met with lower listings levels, but not enough to prevent some upward trend growth in inventory levels and the months of supply. The months of supply pushed up to 2.5 months in July, the first time it has pushed above two months since October of last year.
While conditions remain relatively tight in the lower-price ranges, the benchmark price did trend down relative to levels seen earlier in the year. However, like the detached market, prices remained significantly higher than levels reported last year.
Row
While levels cooled relative to the spring, row sales reached a new record high for July contributing to year-to-date sales growth of 54 per cent. Most of the gains were driven by product priced between $300,000 to $500,000, which also saw the biggest boost in new listings so far this year.
Both new listings and sales have trended down from levels seen earlier the year. However, the gap between sales and new listings narrowed over the past few months causing inventories to trend down compared to earlier in the year. This has ensured that the months of supply remained below two months. The persistently tight conditions prevented any significant adjustment in monthly prices in July.
Like row properties, apartment condominium sales trended down from earlier in the year but maintained a record high level for July, contributing to a year-to-date gain of 66 per cent. Rising lending rates and available supply in the condominium sector helped support the year-over-year sales growth seen so far this year.
While trending down from earlier in the year, new listings in July remain 24 per cent higher than last year’s levels supporting a sales-to-new-listings ratio and a months of supply that reflect relatively balanced conditions. With conditions not as tight as earlier in the year, the pace of price growth has also slowed. In July, the benchmark price reached $278,800, slightly higher than last month and nearly 10 per cent higher than last year’s levels.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Thanks to a pullback in mostly detached activity, sales in Airdrie slowed compared both to levels seen earlier in the year and levels recorded last year. These declines were met with some mixed results for new listings. New listings have trended down from earlier in the year but remained higher than the levels recorded last year. However, much of the growth in new listings, especially in the detached market, have been from homes priced above $500,000. Despite some shift in new listings over the past few months, the sales-to-new-listings ratio remains tight at 83 per cent and the months of supply is still below two months.
Although prices have trended down over the past three months, they remain 20 per cent higher than levels recorded last year. The monthly slippage does not come as a surprise given the pace of growth seen earlier in the year. While conditions remain tight, more caution amongst consumers is weighing on their willingness to bid well above list prices.
Year-to-date sales activity in the town of Cochrane remains similar to levels reported last year. This is thanks to gains in the row and apartment sector. Higher lending prices and substantially less supply for affordable detached product has contributed to slower detached and semi-detached sales in the market.
Though conditions generally favor the seller, we are seeing some monthly adjustments in prices. Despite the adjustment, with a July benchmark price of $515,100, prices are still over 14 per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Okotoks
While easing from earlier in the year, sales activity in Okotoks remained consistent with levels reported last year, contributing to a year-to-date gain of nearly 12 per cent. The pullback in new listings likely prevented stronger sales in the town as the sales-to-new-listings ratio pushed up to 97 per cent and inventory levels trended down.
Although conditions remain relatively tight, home prices did trend down relative to previous months. Home prices in Okotoks rose far above expectations earlier in the year and despite recent adjustments that have occurred over the past two months, July prices are still over 16 per cent higher than levels seen last year and nine per cent higher than levels reported in January.
Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.
Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.
City of Calgary, July 4, 2022 – Sales activity in June eased relative to the past several months and with 2,842 sales, levels declined by two per cent over last year’s record high. While sales activity has remained relatively strong for June levels, the decline was driven by a pullback in detached and semi-detached home sales.
“As expected, higher interest rates are starting to have an impact on home sales. This is helping shift the market toward more balanced conditions and taking some of the pressure off prices,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.“While we are starting to see some transition, it is important to note that in Calgary year-to-date sales are still at record levels and prices are still far above expectations for the year.”
This pullback in sales was not met with the same level of pullback in new listings. This caused inventories to trend up over previous months. These shifts are supporting some easing from the exceptionally tight conditions as the months of supply remained just shy of two months. While two months is still considered low for our market, it is a significant change over the one month of supply recorded earlier in the year.
After three months of gradual gains in the months of supply, prices eased slightly relative to last month. However, with a city-wide benchmark price of $543,900, levels are still over 13 per cent higher than last year.
With further rate gains expected, we could continue to see slower sales activity and some monthly price growth slippage in the Calgary market in the coming months. However, thanks to renewed migration and job growth in a wide range of sectors, it is unlikely that we will see a full reversal of the price gains made so far this year.
Detached
For the third month in a row, sales levels in the detached market have eased. Much of the pullback has occurred from homes priced under $600,000. While some of this is likely related to the continued lack of supply choice, the pullback in this sector is also related to the rise in lending rates that are impacting qualifications levels and creating some hesitancy among consumers.
The pullback in sales relative to new listings did cause some modest gains in inventory levels compared to earlier in the year. This helped push up the months of supply to just under two months. The shift to more balanced conditions has been limiting the upward pressure on prices. As of June, the benchmark price was $647,500. This is comparable to last month, but still 16 per cent higher than last year.
Semi-Detached
Like the detached sector, sales activity slowed in June. While the pullback in sales was not enough to offset earlier gains, it was enough to push the months of supply up to nearly two months. While this gain in months of supply is likely welcome news for some buyers, conditions still remain tight compared to what we traditionally see in this segment of the market.
Prices also saw some adjustment this month easing slightly relative to May’s levels. This was mostly due to adjustments in the North East, East, North West, North and South East districts of the city. However, with a benchmark price of $581,600, prices in Calgary remain nearly 13 per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Row
Unlike the detached and semi-detached sector, row sales activity improved and reached a new record high for the month of June. The row market tends to offer a more affordable option for consumers compared to both semi-detached and detached homes. While new listings did improve relative to levels recorded last year, it was not enough to offset the gains in sales. As a result, inventories trended down and the months of supply remained relatively tight at one and a half months.
The benchmark price still recorded some modest gains this month, but the pace of growth slowed down significantly compared to earlier in the year. Overall, the benchmark price reached $363,700, nearly 16 per cent higher than last year.
Apartment Condominium
While apartment condominium sales continued to slow from record levels reported earlier in the year, sales were still over 31 per cent higher than levels reported last year. This in part was possible due to the recent boost in new listings. At the same time, the boost in new listings did help take some of the supply pressure off this market as the sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 62 per cent and the months of supply pushed up to nearly three months.
The shift to more balanced conditions is also helping slow the pace of price growth in this market, but not completely disrupt it. The benchmark price in June reached $277,400, nearly one per cent higher than last month and 10 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Despite these gains, prices continued to remain below 2014 highs.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Airdrie
Sales in June continued to ease from levels reported earlier in the year and levels achieved last year. However, the decline was not enough to offset earlier gains as year-to-date sales remain over 24 per cent above last year’s levels. While new listings did improve compared to last year, levels were not enough to significantly alter the tight market conditions in Airdrie. The sales-to-new-listings ratio remained relatively tight at 81 per cent and the months of supply, while higher than earlier in the year, pushed just slightly above one month
.
Earlier in the year, Airdrie reported some of the highest monthly price gains ever seen in the market, so as interest rates rise and consumers take a step back to reevaluate conditions, it is not a surprise that we are seeing some adjustments in price. While prices have trended down for the past two months, they remain over 22 per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Cochrane
Easing sales this month contributed to year-to-date sales of 735 units, just slightly higher than levels reported last year. So far this year, the growth in new listings has outpaced the growth in sales and it has helped push up inventory levels relative to what was available in the market earlier in the year. This also helped push the months of supply back above one month, something that has not happened since October of last year.
While conditions remain far from balanced, the slight shift has taken some of the pressure off home prices which reported strong monthly gains earlier in the year. The benchmark price in June rose to $522,600, a slight gain over last month and nearly 18 per cent higher than prices recorded last year.
Okotoks
Sales activity remained relatively stable this month supporting year-to-date sales of 544 units, just slightly higher than levels reported last year. At the same time, new listings have also remained relatively consistent with last year’s levels. This is leaving the market to continue to favour the buyer with one month of supply and a sales-to-new listings ratio of 80 per cent.
Despite tight conditions, there was a modest pull back in the monthly price. However, with a benchmark price of $556,200, prices remain nearly 17 per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.
Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.
At the start of the year, amidst rising real estate prices and ballooning inflation, a hike of the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate seemed like an inevitability. Now, nearly six months down the line, and with multiple hikes behind us, hikes seem like a regular occurrence.
Today, the central bank has made it clear they intend to remain on course and continue to increase its rates even further.
This week, the Bank of Canada announced an increase to their policy interest rate of 50 basis points, amounting to a total of 1.50%. That means interest rates are now six times higher than they were at the start of the year, though they still remain below pre-pandemic levels.
The bank has also announced they plan to continue Quantitative Tightening (QT), a program under which the bank will allow the many bond holdings accumulate during Quantitative Easing to mature without replacing them, which will drive bond prices down and put upward pressure on bond yields.
The policy interest rate affects the price of borrowing in many different areas of the Canadian economy. The current hikes are primarily a tool to help curb inflation, which hit 6.8% in the month of May. Most importantly for our readers, the interest rate plays a big role in how mortgage rates are set. Let’s explore in a bit more detail what the recent hike might mean for you.
What happens when the bank raises its rates?
The Bank of Canada notably does not take on regular Canadians as clients. Instead, they are mostly involved in influencing the major banks and directing monetary policy. This means the first effect of the bank raising its policy rate will be an increase in the cost of borrowing for banks and financial institutions.
Canadians can expect the cost of borrowing from banks and financial institutions to rise in a couple of days if it hasn’t happened already. This increased cost will be passed on to consumers in the form of an increased prime rate. Thie prime rate serves as the foundation for many consumer interest rates, including some mortgages.
How do rates affect my mortgage?
The Bank of Canada policy rate plays a major role in how banks determine their variable interest rates. Fixed rates, on the other hand, are more closely tied to government bond yields, which will be affected by the ongoing QT program.
The good news is that if you have a fixed rate, your interest rate won’t change until your mortgage is up for renewal at the end of the term—or if you decide to refinance.
Depending on when you started your mortgage term, and when you are up for renewal, an increased interest rate will affect you differently. Those who began or renewed mortgages amid the record low rates of the last two years will see the biggest increase in interest when it comes time to renew while mortgage terms that started prior to 2020 may not see as large of a change.
For variable-rate mortgages, your interest rates will be rising shortly, if they haven’t already, and will continue to follow the policy interest rate as it moves upwards. While variable rates were very popular during our previous low-rate environment, these borrowers will quickly feel the burn of rising interest rates. Many may choose to convert to a more stable fixed rate to ride out the shifting market.
Those who are just looking to buy a home now will also be affected by the rate increase. When rates were low during the last two years, it allowed prices to shoot up as borrowers could more easily service their large mortgage debts. Now, new buyers will have to face these higher rates, while prices in many areas still remain much higher than the last time rates were at this level. Buyers will be faced with either buying now at high prices to lock in a relatively lower rate while they can, or waiting an undetermined amount of time and hoping prices correct in response to higher interest rates.
How much further will they go?
No one but the Bank of Canada themselves can definitively say just how far rising interest rates will need to go, though analysts are predicting more still to come.
Despite the recent hikes, the rate of inflation has continued to go up in recent months and is predicted to continue to rise even further before it falls. Clearly, the Bank must still do more if they hope to rein in inflation. Yet, even with the rapid increases, we have seen, they must still try to avoid moving too fast.
Our current interest rate is still below pre-pandemic levels, though it is higher than it was for much of the 2010s when inflation hovered around 2%. And, looking even further back, we are still far from the highest interest rates ever seen in Canada (though comparing with the past is not apples-to-apples).
Looking forward to the rest of the year, many economists are predicting yet another 50 basis point increase in July, while RBC Economics forecasts a policy rate of 2.5% to end the year. With just four potential hikes remaining on the BOC’s 2022 schedule, they will need to continue at a pace of at least 25 basis points per increase to hit that forecast. Based on their recent clip, that seems more than doable.
City of Calgary, June 1, 2022 – For the second month in a row, sales activity trended down after all-time record-high sales in March. While activity in the market slowed down in May with 3,071 sales, levels are still slightly higher than last year’s record high and are far stronger than typical levels of activity recorded in May.
“It’s not a surprise to see sales ease from the exceptionally strong levels seen earlier in the year. Many buyers were eager to get into the market ahead of the rate gains that we are now seeing,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
“While higher lending rates are weighing on sales activity, the market is still struggling with supply levels and rising prices which could also be contributing to slower sales, especially in the detached market. Nonetheless, if this shift continues, we could begin to see more balanced conditions in the market over the next several months, slowing the pace of price growth in the market.”
Slower sales were met with a decline in new listings, but a strong pullback in sales was enough to cause inventories to trend up relative to levels seen over the past few months. While inventory remains well below historical norms, the monthly gains did take off some of the pressure in the market. However, with just under two months of supply, the market continues to favour the seller.
Tight market conditions continue to contribute to further price gains in the market, but the pace of growth has eased relative to what occurred over the previous four months. Overall, the benchmark price reached $546,000 in May, over 14 percent higher than last year’s levels.
Benchmark home prices reflect a typical home to ensure price movements better reflect market activity. Over time, the typical home evolves and the MLS® Home Price Index also evolves to ensure the data remains in line with modern housing trends. As of today, the benchmark price was recalculated based on a modern typical home. Details on the model adjustments can be found on the Canadian Real Estate Association’s website.
Detached
Higher lending rates, steep price gains and exceptionally tight conditions in the market are starting to weigh on consumers and contributing to the pullback in detached sales this month. Sales trended down in all locations except the most affordable North East and East markets in the city, which continue to record sales growth. Slower sales were met with a pullback in new listings which prevented any steep gains in inventory levels. With 2,552 units in inventory and 1,620 sales, the months of supply edged up over last month but continues to favour the seller.
Persistently tight conditions did contribute to further price gains this month, but the pace of growth has eased compared to earlier in the year. Detached benchmark prices reached $648,500 in May, nearly 17 percent higher than last year. Year-over-year gains have occurred across all districts with the gains ranging from a low of 10 percent in the City Centre to over 22 percent in the South East and North East.
Semi-Detached
Like the detached sector, sales slowed this month for semi-detached properties. However, sales still remain relatively strong and on a year-to-date basis are still higher than levels recorded last year. New listings also slowed, but at a slower pace than sales causing some modest monthly gains in inventory levels and some monthly gains in the months of supply. However, with less than two months of supply, this segment continues to favour the seller.
While prices continued to rise for semi-detached properties, the pace of growth has eased from earlier in the year. In May, the semi-detached benchmark price reached $584,700, nearly 15 percent higher than the same time last year. Price gains have occurred across all districts with the strongest year-over-year gain occurring in the North district of the city.
Row
Like other property types, sales activity trended down from the March high. However, sales in May were still higher than last year’s levels and reflect a new record high for May. Row properties in the city are generally more affordable than both detached and semi-detached properties. Higher prices in other sectors and rate gains are likely driving more consumers toward row-style properties.
While some monthly gains in inventories did help push up the months of supply, with 1.5 months of supply conditions continue to favour the seller. The persistently tight conditions placed further upward pressure on prices, however, the pace of growth is easing. As of May, the benchmark price reached $363,300, nearly 17 percent higher than last year’s levels.
Apartment Condominium
Recent gains in sales and prices likely encouraged the boost in new listings this month for apartment condominiums. While sales did improve significantly compared to last year, the sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 67 percent and inventories edged up over relative to levels seen over the past five months. This rise was enough to push up the months of supply to over two months. While this segment of the market has been more sensitive to supply shifts, conditions still remain relatively tight supporting further price gains.
The benchmark price in May reached $275,300, over one percent higher than last month and nearly nine percent higher than last year. Prices trended up in every district helping support price recovery. Despite the growth, prices are still over 10 percent below the highs set back in 2014.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Airdrie
For the first time in nearly two years, sales in Airdrie eased over last year’s levels. Meanwhile, the new listings in the market remained comparable to last month but were slightly better than last year’s levels. This helped push inventories and the months of supply up compared to last month. However, with the months of supply remaining at one month, the market remains exceptionally tight.
Despite tight market conditions, we did see prices take a pause this month, easing slightly over last month but remaining nearly 25 percent higher than levels recorded last year. Prices have been trending up monthly for the better part of two years and the growth at the start of this year has far exceeded expectations. As rates continue to rise and the market shifts to more balanced conditions, we expect the pace of the price growth to start to slow.
Cochrane
Sales in Cochrane continued to remain strong in May, supporting a year-to-date annual gain of nearly seven percent. While we have seen some signs of improvement in new listings, that was not the case this month. The sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 98 percent, higher than levels seen over the past four months. With no additions to the inventory in the market, the months of supply remained below one month. This supported persistent sellers’ market conditions.
The tight conditions continue to place upward pressure on prices. However, the pace of growth is starting to slow as May prices were 18 percent higher than last year’s levels. Price growth remains the strongest for detached and semi-detached properties with year-over-year gains pushing 21 percent.
Okotoks
Sales remained relatively strong this month, contributing to a year-to-date gain of nearly 17 percent. This growth was possible as new listings did improve this month. However, with an 87 percent sales to new listings ratio and a months of supply remaining below one month, conditions continue to remain relatively tight in this market.
The benchmark price reached $560,700 in May. This is a significant jump over last month and 19 percent higher than last year’s levels. Like most locations, much of the gain is being driven by the detached sector of the market, which saw prices push up to $625,200 this month.
Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.
Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.
According to the Urban Reform Institute’s Demographia International Housing Affordability Study, Calgary ranked 10th out of the 92 cities included in the survey.
Calgary’s affordability, which was based on numbers taken during the fourth quarter of 2021, was up slightly, posting a median multiple of 4.0 compared to 4.1 in the previous study analyzing 2020. Calgary’s 2020 rating placed them 29th on the list.
Cities with a median multiple of 3.0 and under have “affordable” housing markets, while the range from 3.1 to 4.0 is “moderately affordable,” 4.1 to 5.0 is “seriously unaffordable,” and 5.1 and over is “severely unaffordable.”
The median multiple is the price-to-income ratio, which is the median house price divided by the gross median household income, pre-tax. This means that the median house in Calgary costs four times the average annual income in the city.
Edmonton ranked as the most affordable Canadian city in the report, sitting fourth with a rating of 3.6 while Pittsburgh was the most affordable city in the report with a rating of 2.7.
On the other end of the scale, Vancouver, Sydney and Hong Kong were rated as the three most unaffordable cities, with median multiples of 13.3, 15.3 and 23.2 respectively.
“Severely unaffordable housing has spread from Vancouver to smaller markets, as metro Vancouver has shed domestic migration to smaller markets in British Columbia, such as Chilliwack, the Fraser Valley, and Kelowna and markets on Vancouver Island,” read the report.
Toronto finished 83rd, with a median multiple of 10.5, with the report stating the “severely unaffordable housing” trend in Ontario has spread to smaller markets in Ontario, such as Kitchener-Waterloo, Brantford, London and Guelph, as residents of metro Toronto seek lower costs of living.
According to CREB®’s latest housing statistics, Calgary’s benchmark price reached $526,700 in April, nearly two percent higher than last month and 17 percent higher than last year. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s put the average price of a home in that city at $1.2 million in April, while Vancouver’s benchmark house price sat at $1,360,500.
Courtesy CREB