Affordability is a hot topic in Canadian housing market. Rising interest rates, intended to combat inflation, are significantly impacting homebuyers and in turn, sellers. Thus, home prices have begun to moderate from their record highs, but any savings is being offset by the higher cost of borrowing. It is no surprise that affordability is such a focus for Canadians. RE/MAX® Canada’s 2022 Housing Affordability Report outlines the concerns of home buyers from coast to coast.

According to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX, Canadians are ready to relocate in order to find a house they can afford. Sixty-four percent of survey respondents said they would pack up and head to a new city. Forty-three percent of survey respondents said the high price was a barrier to entry into the Canadian housing market. Other hurdles include:

• A higher cost of living (35 percent)
• A shortfall in salary (24 percent, down two percent from 2021)
• Market volatility (24 percent)
• Rising interest rates (24 percent, up six percent from 2021)

Is there hope for homebuyers facing a financial crunch? In the face of demandand rising interest rates, some buyers are opting to sit on the sidelines for now. “The demand that was so strong just a few months ago has not gone away, but some buyers will likely stay on the sidelines until they see what happens with borrowing costs and prices. As they re-enter the market, they’ll find a bit more selection, but not as much as might be expected,” said Jill Oudil, Chair of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

As part of the RE/MAX Canada’s five-year housing outlook, Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC, noted that there are several factors beyond interest rates that will impact housing affordability across Canada. “It’s the pace at which interest rates increase that poses a greater risk to the housing market and economy in the short-term. In the long-run, factors such as rising immigration levels putting further strain on demand, limited housing supply, supply chain hold-ups, and the shortage of skilled labourers will be the greatest hurdles in overcoming Canada’s housing affordability crisis.”

Regional Canadian Housing Market Overview (January-June, 2021 vs. 2022)

WESTERN CANADA

Western Canada is home to some of the most affordable homes in Canada but has some markets that have seen significant growth.

Competition from out-of-town or move-over buyers has put upward pressure on home prices year-over-year in a number of markets, including:

• Kelowna/Central Okanagan, BC +21.1%, $778,657 in 2021 to $942,977 in 2022
• Vancouver, BC +19.69%, from $1,097,000 in 2021 to $1,313,000 in 2022
• Victoria, BC +14.93% from $885,117 in 2021 to $1,017,292 in 2022
• Winnipeg, MB +12.66% from $388,291 in 2021 to $437,460 in 2022

The most significant factors impacting housing affordability in Vancouver and Victoria include the high cost of living in Canada’s second most expensive city, inflation and the housing supply shortage.

In Edmonton, residential construction delays, out-of-region buyers driving up demand, and rising interest rates contribute to affordability challenges. In Calgary, the primary factor is increasing interest rates.

When faced with an affordability crisis, Westerners turn to alternative living arrangements. Some regions across Western Canada are experiencing trends such as renting part of a primary residence to supplement monthly mortgage payments.

For those willing to move, Western Canada presents four of the most affordable markets in Canada. Red Deer, Regina, Brandon, and Edmonton top our list of the most affordable places to buy real estate in Canada.

ONTARIO

Due to rising demand and limited supply, regions outside of Toronto have experienced some of the highest year-over-year price increases in the first half of 2022. The markets include:

• Windsor, ON +24.42%, from $542,225 in 2021 to $674,637 in 2022
• Barrie, ON +24.40%, from $767,004 in 2021 to $954,133 in 2022
• Sudbury, ON +23.85%, from $402,855 in 2021 to $498,939 in 2022
• London, ON +23.26%, from $632,302 in 2021 to $779,383 in 2022
• Hamilton, ON +22.35%, from $775,742 in 2021 to $949,099 in 2022
• Thunder Bay, ON +17.58%, from $315,321 in 2021 to $370,761 in 2022
• Kingston, ON +20.83%, from $574,844 in 2021 to $694,576 in 2022
• Ottawa, ON +11.46%, from $728,205 in 2021 to $811,653 in 2022

Alternatives to traditional home ownership have also seen an uptick in some Ontario regions, as identified by RE/MAX brokers in Hamilton and Windsor. Some of the most significant factors impacting housing affordability in Ontario, highlighted by brokers in Windsor, Sudbury and Ottawa, among others, include low or diminishing housing supply, rising interest rates, cost of living and inflation, out-of-province/out-of-region buyers, and economic and employment conditions.

Economists from TD expect declining sales numbers and prices in Ontario in 2023. Sales activity in the Ontario real estate market is anticipated to endure a 31.7-per-cent crash this year and a 13.3-per-cent drop next year. On the pricing front, TD Economics projects a gain of 3.8 percent this year and a decline of 9.4 percent in 2023.

ATLANTIC CANADA

In Atlantic Canada, Halifax has experienced significant year-over-year price growth (+23.59% from $460,787 in 2021 to $569,475 in 2022). The price jump results from the move-over buyers migrating to the region for its relative affordability.

More modest price increases were experienced in St. John’s, NL (+6.23% from $313,364 in 2021 to $332,900 in 2022), Moncton, NB (+2.11 % from $331,003 in 2021 to $337,992 in 2022) and Charlottetown, PEI (+29.30% from $355,000 in 2021 to $459,000 in 2022).

St. John’s and Moncton are featured in the top 10 most affordable places to buy in Canada, with average prices under $340,000 in both markets.

Affordability in regions across Atlantic Canada is impacted by rising interest rates, low housing supply, out-of-province/out-of-region buyers, immigration, and insufficient new-home construction.

What’s In Store for the Canadian Housing Market?

Ultra-low interest rates and low supply contributed to record-high price growth throughout the pandemic. But, there are other factors to consider. As Benjamin Tal reminds us, “in the long-run, factors such as rising immigration levels putting further strain on demand, limited housing supply, supply chain hold-ups, and the shortage of skilled labourers will be the greatest hurdles in overcoming Canada’s housing affordability crisis. These must all be addressed in order to help balance supply.”

Elton Ash, Executive Vice President at RE/MAX Canada, noted that recent market moderation is overdue. “The shifts we are seeing in the Canadian housing market, with prices starting to ease across the country in tandem with softening demand and sales, are an overdue adjustment. A healthy housing market is characterized by price appreciation in the mid-to high-single digits, and many markets across Canada are re-entering that comfort zone.”

A possible recession is on the horizon, but recessions often bring strong rebounds, and real estate has traditionally been a safe bet. Looking ahead, urbanization will be a significant boon to future housing demand, as Canada’s urban population is projected to grow by 10 million by 2050.

One key to easing the affordability crisis is more homes. A new study by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) determined that the country needs approximately 3.5 million affordable housing units by the year 2030 to accomplish the federal government’s affordability objective. This is in addition to the 2.3 million new housing units already on track to be built by 2030.

Shifting interest rates, housing supply, and the state of the economy are all critical factors to monitor as we enter 2023 and see what the real estate market has in store.

Courtesy of RE/MAX Canada

City of Calgary, September 1, 2022 – August sales activity was comparable to the strong levels recorded last year and well above long-term trends for the month.

While sales have remained relatively strong, there continues to be a shift towards more affordable options as the year-over-year pullback in detached sales was nearly matched by gains for multi-family product types.

“While higher lending rates have slowed activity in the detached market, we are still seeing homebuyers shift to more affordable options which is keeping sales activity relatively strong,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “This makes Calgary different than some of the larger cities in the country which have recorded significant pullbacks in sales.”

At the same time, new listings continue to trend down, preventing any supply gains or a substantial shift in the months of supply.

Despite year-over-year gains in new listings, the spread between new listings and sales this month narrowed compared to the past three months. This caused total inventory to trend down and prevented any significant shift in the months of supply. The months of supply in August remained at just above two months, not at tight as earlier in the year, but still below levels traditionally seen this time of year.

For the third month in a row, benchmark prices eased declining to $531,800. While the reduction reflects shifting market conditions, it is important to note that previous gains are not lost, and prices remain over 11 per cent higher than last year.

Detached

Sales continued to trend down compared to levels seen earlier in the year and August of last year. While the recent declines have not offset the strong gains reported earlier in the year, conditions are changing in this segment of the market. At the same time, we have seen listings continue to ease in for lower-priced homes. This is causing persistently tight conditions for homes priced below $500,000. Meanwhile, supply gains in the higher price range of the market are supporting more balanced conditions.

Easing demand has had an impact on prices which have trended down relative to the high levels achieved in May. However, with a benchmark price of $633,000, levels are still over 13 per cent higher than last year.

Semi-Detached

There was a significant pullback in new listings relative to a slight easing of sales for semi-detached properties this month. This caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to push above 80 per cent for the first time since April while total inventory dropped relative to levels seen over the past several months and last year. Like the detached sector, conditions do vary depending on price ranges with the lower-price ranges continuing to see relatively tight market conditions.

Despite the adjustment this month, prices still trended down compared to May levels. However, like other property types, price levels are over 10 per cent higher than last year with a benchmark price of $569,300.

 

Row

Despite sales trending down relative to levels seen earlier in the year, the row-home market remains strong and year-to-date levels are nearly 50 per cent higher than last year. At the same time, there was a notable decline in new listings this month causing a decline in inventory levels. This prevented any significant adjustments to the months of supply which remained below two months.

While market conditions remain relatively tight, home prices have remained fairly stable over the past few months. Overall, the benchmark price for row properties in August was over 14 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

Apartment Condominium

Sales activity improved in August, contributing to year-to-date record sales of 4,576 units, which is an increase of 65 per cent compared to last year. Some of this growth was possible thanks to this segment of the market having more supply. However, the recent growth in sales relative to new listings has caused the supply gap to narrow.

Though conditions have shifted over the past month, prices remain relatively stable compared to July but are over 10 per cent higher than last year’s prices. Despite the recent gains in prices, apartment condominium sales remain below peak prices set back in 2014.

 

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales in Airdrie continued a downward trend that began in April. While new listings have also trended down compared to earlier in the year, there are still more new listings on the market this month than there were last year. Overall, inventory levels are starting to rise from the exceptionally low levels, causing the months of supply to shift away from the strong seller market conditions.

Despite recent shifts in supply demand balances, with less than two months of supply conditions still remain tight.  Nonetheless, prices continue to trend down from earlier in the year as purchasers become more cautious. While this has slowed the pace of growth, prices still remain over 18 per cent higher than last year’s levels.

Cochrane

In August, easing sales were met with gains in new listings, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to drop to 70 per cent in Cochrane. The rise in new listings compared to sales caused inventory gains, but levels are still far below what is typical for our market.

The gains in inventory did support a shift toward more balanced conditions, but with a month of supply still averaging just over two months, conditions remain tight. Benchmark prices in the centre remain relatively stable this month but is still nearly 17 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

 

Okotoks

In Okotoks, the residential benchmark price was $549,300, reflecting the third consecutive month where prices trended down. However, recent pullbacks have not offset earlier gains and prices are still 16 per cent higher than last year.

 

Home sales in Okotoks continued to trend down despite a gain in new listings supporting slightly higher inventory levels. These recent shifts in the market are supporting a shift away from the exceptionally strong sellers market conditions seen earlier in the year.  However, with less than two months of supply market conditions still remain tight.

City of Calgary, Aug. 2, 2022 – Significant slowdowns in the detached and semi-detached market were nearly offset by sales growth in the apartment and row sectors. This left July sales three per cent lower than levels recorded last year. While this is the second month where sales activity has slowed, total residential sales this month are still amongst the strongest levels recorded in our market.

“Rising lending rates are causing shifts within the market and, as a result, new listings for higher-priced product are on the rise relative to sales activity,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

“Meanwhile, there continues to be a lack of supply for lower-priced detached and semi-detached product. This is driving consumers who are looking for affordable homes to purchase apartment- and row-style properties.”

Residential new listings in the city declined compared to what was seen in 2021, but when considering the dynamics between price ranges, we are seeing a different trend play out. Listings for homes priced below $500,000 fell by 18 per cent, while levels rose by 20 per cent for homes priced above $500,000. This has left conditions to remain relatively tight in the lower-end of the market while conditions are shifting toward more balanced levels in the upper-end of the market.

When considering the relationship between the supply and demand, the months of supply has continued to trend up from the exceptionally tight conditions seen earlier in the year. However, with just over two months of supply, the market remains far tighter than anything experienced throughout the recessionary period experienced prior to the pandemic.

As expected, the benchmark price did see some slippage relative to levels seen earlier in the year and rising lending rates have cooled much of the bidding war activity that was driving significant gains earlier in the year. However, prices currently remain over 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels, still outpacing forecasted price growth for the year. 

“As we move forward, we do anticipate further rate gains will weigh on housing activity and prices, but not enough to completely offset the exceptionally strong gains recorded over the first half of the year,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

                                                                

Detached

In July, detached sales reached 1,136, which is 19 per cent lower than last year’s levels. Higher lending rates are driving more consumers to look for affordable product, however, the detached sector has struggled with supply levels for lower-priced homes. While we are seeing balanced conditions in the upper-end of the market, conditions remain exceptionally tight in the lower-end of the market.

The decline in sales was mostly driven by pullbacks in the lower-price ranges due to lack of availability. Nearly 80 per cent of the inventory available is priced over $500,000 and new listings for homes priced under $500,000 are half of the levels seen last year.

With a benchmark price of $643,600 in July, levels are still nearly 15 per cent higher than last year. However, we are seeing some monthly adjustments as prices trended down across all districts in July compared to last month.

Semi-Detached

For the third month in a row, semi-detached sales saw less sales than levels reported a year ago. While year-to-date sales remain over 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels, this is a significant shift from the 40 per cent growth recorded after the first quarter of the year. This pullback in sales was met with lower listings levels, but not enough to prevent some upward trend growth in inventory levels and the months of supply. The months of supply pushed up to 2.5 months in July, the first time it has pushed above two months since October of last year.

While conditions remain relatively tight in the lower-price ranges, the benchmark price did trend down relative to levels seen earlier in the year. However, like the detached market, prices remained significantly higher than levels reported last year.

Row

While levels cooled relative to the spring, row sales reached a new record high for July contributing to year-to-date sales growth of 54 per cent. Most of the gains were driven by product priced between $300,000 to $500,000, which also saw the biggest boost in new listings so far this year.

Both new listings and sales have trended down from levels seen earlier the year. However, the gap between sales and new listings narrowed over the past few months causing inventories to trend down compared to earlier in the year. This has ensured that the months of supply remained below two months. The persistently tight conditions prevented any significant adjustment in monthly prices in July.

Apartment Condominium

Like row properties, apartment condominium sales trended down from earlier in the year but maintained a record high level for July, contributing to a year-to-date gain of 66 per cent. Rising lending rates and available supply in the condominium sector helped support the year-over-year sales growth seen so far this year.

While trending down from earlier in the year, new listings in July remain 24 per cent higher than last year’s levels supporting a sales-to-new-listings ratio and a months of supply that reflect relatively balanced conditions. With conditions not as tight as earlier in the year, the pace of price growth has also slowed. In July, the benchmark price reached $278,800, slightly higher than last month and nearly 10 per cent higher than last year’s levels.

 

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Thanks to a pullback in mostly detached activity, sales in Airdrie slowed compared both to levels seen earlier in the year and levels recorded last year. These declines were met with some mixed results for new listings. New listings have trended down from earlier in the year but remained higher than the levels recorded last year. However, much of the growth in new listings, especially in the detached market, have been from homes priced above $500,000. Despite some shift in new listings over the past few months, the sales-to-new-listings ratio remains tight at 83 per cent and the months of supply is still below two months. 

Although prices have trended down over the past three months, they remain 20 per cent higher than levels recorded last year. The monthly slippage does not come as a surprise given the pace of growth seen earlier in the year. While conditions remain tight, more caution amongst consumers is weighing on their willingness to bid well above list prices.

Cochrane

Year-to-date sales activity in the town of Cochrane remains similar to levels reported last year. This is thanks to gains in the row and apartment sector. Higher lending prices and substantially less supply for affordable detached product has contributed to slower detached and semi-detached sales in the market.

Though conditions generally favor the seller, we are seeing some monthly adjustments in prices. Despite the adjustment, with a July benchmark price of $515,100, prices are still over 14 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

Okotoks

While easing from earlier in the year, sales activity in Okotoks remained consistent with levels reported last year, contributing to a year-to-date gain of nearly 12 per cent. The pullback in new listings likely prevented stronger sales in the town as the sales-to-new-listings ratio pushed up to 97 per cent and inventory levels trended down.

Although conditions remain relatively tight, home prices did trend down relative to previous months. Home prices in Okotoks rose far above expectations earlier in the year and despite recent adjustments that have occurred over the past two months, July prices are still over 16 per cent higher than levels seen last year and nine per cent higher than levels reported in January.  

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

City of Calgary, July 4, 2022 – Sales activity in June eased relative to the past several months and with 2,842 sales, levels declined by two per cent over last year’s record high. While sales activity has remained relatively strong for June levels, the decline was driven by a pullback in detached and semi-detached home sales.

“As expected, higher interest rates are starting to have an impact on home sales. This is helping shift the market toward more balanced conditions and taking some of the pressure off prices,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.“While we are starting to see some transition, it is important to note that in Calgary year-to-date sales are still at record levels and prices are still far above expectations for the year.”

This pullback in sales was not met with the same level of pullback in new listings. This caused inventories to trend up over previous months. These shifts are supporting some easing from the exceptionally tight conditions as the months of supply remained just shy of two months. While two months is still considered low for our market, it is a significant change over the one month of supply recorded earlier in the year.

After three months of gradual gains in the months of supply, prices eased slightly relative to last month. However, with a city-wide benchmark price of $543,900, levels are still over 13 per cent higher than last year.

With further rate gains expected, we could continue to see slower sales activity and some monthly price growth slippage in the Calgary market in the coming months. However, thanks to renewed migration and job growth in a wide range of sectors, it is unlikely that we will see a full reversal of the price gains made so far this year.

Detached

For the third month in a row, sales levels in the detached market have eased. Much of the pullback has occurred from homes priced under $600,000. While some of this is likely related to the continued lack of supply choice, the pullback in this sector is also related to the rise in lending rates that are impacting qualifications levels and creating some hesitancy among consumers.

The pullback in sales relative to new listings did cause some modest gains in inventory levels compared to earlier in the year. This helped push up the months of supply to just under two months. The shift to more balanced conditions has been limiting the upward pressure on prices. As of June, the benchmark price was $647,500. This is comparable to last month, but still 16 per cent higher than last year.

Semi-Detached

Like the detached sector, sales activity slowed in June. While the pullback in sales was not enough to offset earlier gains, it was enough to push the months of supply up to nearly two months. While this gain in months of supply is likely welcome news for some buyers, conditions still remain tight compared to what we traditionally see in this segment of the market.

Prices also saw some adjustment this month easing slightly relative to May’s levels. This was mostly due to adjustments in the North East, East, North West, North and South East districts of the city. However, with a benchmark price of $581,600, prices in Calgary remain nearly 13 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

Row

Unlike the detached and semi-detached sector, row sales activity improved and reached a new record high for the month of June. The row market tends to offer a more affordable option for consumers compared to both semi-detached and detached homes. While new listings did improve relative to levels recorded last year, it was not enough to offset the gains in sales. As a result, inventories trended down and the months of supply remained relatively tight at one and a half months.

The benchmark price still recorded some modest gains this month, but the pace of growth slowed down significantly compared to earlier in the year. Overall, the benchmark price reached $363,700, nearly 16 per cent higher than last year.

Apartment Condominium

While apartment condominium sales continued to slow from record levels reported earlier in the year, sales were still over 31 per cent higher than levels reported last year. This in part was possible due to the recent boost in new listings. At the same time, the boost in new listings did help take some of the supply pressure off this market as the sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 62 per cent and the months of supply pushed up to nearly three months.

The shift to more balanced conditions is also helping slow the pace of price growth in this market, but not completely disrupt it. The benchmark price in June reached $277,400, nearly one per cent higher than last month and 10 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Despite these gains, prices continued to remain below 2014 highs.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales in June continued to ease from levels reported earlier in the year and levels achieved last year. However, the decline was not enough to offset earlier gains as year-to-date sales remain over 24 per cent above last year’s levels. While new listings did improve compared to last year, levels were not enough to significantly alter the tight market conditions in Airdrie. The sales-to-new-listings ratio remained relatively tight at 81 per cent and the months of supply, while higher than earlier in the year, pushed just slightly above one month

.

Earlier in the year, Airdrie reported some of the highest monthly price gains ever seen in the market, so as interest rates rise and consumers take a step back to reevaluate conditions, it is not a surprise that we are seeing some adjustments in price. While prices have trended down for the past two months, they remain over 22 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

Cochrane

Easing sales this month contributed to year-to-date sales of 735 units, just slightly higher than levels reported last year. So far this year, the growth in new listings has outpaced the growth in sales and it has helped push up inventory levels relative to what was available in the market earlier in the year. This also helped push the months of supply back above one month, something that has not happened since October of last year.

While conditions remain far from balanced, the slight shift has taken some of the pressure off home prices which reported strong monthly gains earlier in the year. The benchmark price in June rose to $522,600, a slight gain over last month and nearly 18 per cent higher than prices recorded last year.

Okotoks

Sales activity remained relatively stable this month supporting year-to-date sales of 544 units, just slightly higher than levels reported last year. At the same time, new listings have also remained relatively consistent with last year’s levels. This is leaving the market to continue to favour the buyer with one month of supply and a sales-to-new listings ratio of 80 per cent.

Despite tight conditions, there was a modest pull back in the monthly price. However, with a benchmark price of $556,200, prices remain nearly 17 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

At the start of the year, amidst rising real estate prices and ballooning inflation, a hike of the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate seemed like an inevitability. Now, nearly six months down the line, and with multiple hikes behind us, hikes seem like a regular occurrence.

Today, the central bank has made it clear they intend to remain on course and continue to increase its rates even further.

This week, the Bank of Canada announced an increase to their policy interest rate of 50 basis points, amounting to a total of 1.50%. That means interest rates are now six times higher than they were at the start of the year, though they still remain below pre-pandemic levels.

The bank has also announced they plan to continue Quantitative Tightening (QT), a program under which the bank will allow the many bond holdings accumulate during Quantitative Easing to mature without replacing them, which will drive bond prices down and put upward pressure on bond yields.

The policy interest rate affects the price of borrowing in many different areas of the Canadian economy. The current hikes are primarily a tool to help curb inflation, which hit 6.8% in the month of May. Most importantly for our readers, the interest rate plays a big role in how mortgage rates are set. Let’s explore in a bit more detail what the recent hike might mean for you.

What happens when the bank raises its rates?

The Bank of Canada notably does not take on regular Canadians as clients. Instead, they are mostly involved in influencing the major banks and directing monetary policy. This means the first effect of the bank raising its policy rate will be an increase in the cost of borrowing for banks and financial institutions.

Canadians can expect the cost of borrowing from banks and financial institutions to rise in a couple of days if it hasn’t happened already. This increased cost will be passed on to consumers in the form of an increased prime rate. Thie prime rate serves as the foundation for many consumer interest rates, including some mortgages.

How do rates affect my mortgage?

The Bank of Canada policy rate plays a major role in how banks determine their variable interest rates. Fixed rates, on the other hand, are more closely tied to government bond yields, which will be affected by the ongoing QT program.

The good news is that if you have a fixed rate, your interest rate won’t change until your mortgage is up for renewal at the end of the term—or if you decide to refinance.

Depending on when you started your mortgage term, and when you are up for renewal, an increased interest rate will affect you differently. Those who began or renewed mortgages amid the record low rates of the last two years will see the biggest increase in interest when it comes time to renew while mortgage terms that started prior to 2020 may not see as large of a change.

For variable-rate mortgages, your interest rates will be rising shortly, if they haven’t already, and will continue to follow the policy interest rate as it moves upwards. While variable rates were very popular during our previous low-rate environment, these borrowers will quickly feel the burn of rising interest rates. Many may choose to convert to a more stable fixed rate to ride out the shifting market.

Those who are just looking to buy a home now will also be affected by the rate increase. When rates were low during the last two years, it allowed prices to shoot up as borrowers could more easily service their large mortgage debts. Now, new buyers will have to face these higher rates, while prices in many areas still remain much higher than the last time rates were at this level. Buyers will be faced with either buying now at high prices to lock in a relatively lower rate while they can, or waiting an undetermined amount of time and hoping prices correct in response to higher interest rates.

How much further will they go?

No one but the Bank of Canada themselves can definitively say just how far rising interest rates will need to go, though analysts are predicting more still to come.

Despite the recent hikes, the rate of inflation has continued to go up in recent months and is predicted to continue to rise even further before it falls. Clearly, the Bank must still do more if they hope to rein in inflation. Yet, even with the rapid increases, we have seen, they must still try to avoid moving too fast.

Our current interest rate is still below pre-pandemic levels, though it is higher than it was for much of the 2010s when inflation hovered around 2%. And, looking even further back, we are still far from the highest interest rates ever seen in Canada (though comparing with the past is not apples-to-apples).

Looking forward to the rest of the year, many economists are predicting yet another 50 basis point increase in July, while RBC Economics forecasts a policy rate of 2.5% to end the year. With just four potential hikes remaining on the BOC’s 2022 schedule, they will need to continue at a pace of at least 25 basis points per increase to hit that forecast. Based on their recent clip, that seems more than doable.

City of Calgary, June 1, 2022 –  For the second month in a row, sales activity trended down after all-time record-high sales in March. While activity in the market slowed down in May with 3,071 sales, levels are still slightly higher than last year’s record high and are far stronger than typical levels of activity recorded in May.

“It’s not a surprise to see sales ease from the exceptionally strong levels seen earlier in the year. Many buyers were eager to get into the market ahead of the rate gains that we are now seeing,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“While higher lending rates are weighing on sales activity, the market is still struggling with supply levels and rising prices which could also be contributing to slower sales, especially in the detached market. Nonetheless, if this shift continues, we could begin to see more balanced conditions in the market over the next several months, slowing the pace of price growth in the market.”

Slower sales were met with a decline in new listings, but a strong pullback in sales was enough to cause inventories to trend up relative to levels seen over the past few months. While inventory remains well below historical norms, the monthly gains did take off some of the pressure in the market. However, with just under two months of supply, the market continues to favour the seller.

Tight market conditions continue to contribute to further price gains in the market, but the pace of growth has eased relative to what occurred over the previous four months. Overall, the benchmark price reached $546,000 in May, over 14 percent higher than last year’s levels.

Benchmark home prices reflect a typical home to ensure price movements better reflect market activity. Over time, the typical home evolves and the MLS® Home Price Index also evolves to ensure the data remains in line with modern housing trends. As of today, the benchmark price was recalculated based on a modern typical home. Details on the model adjustments can be found on the Canadian Real Estate Association’s website.

Detached

Higher lending rates, steep price gains and exceptionally tight conditions in the market are starting to weigh on consumers and contributing to the pullback in detached sales this month. Sales trended down in all locations except the most affordable North East and East markets in the city, which continue to record sales growth. Slower sales were met with a pullback in new listings which prevented any steep gains in inventory levels. With 2,552 units in inventory and 1,620 sales, the months of supply edged up over last month but continues to favour the seller.

Persistently tight conditions did contribute to further price gains this month, but the pace of growth has eased compared to earlier in the year. Detached benchmark prices reached $648,500 in May, nearly 17 percent higher than last year. Year-over-year gains have occurred across all districts with the gains ranging from a low of 10 percent in the City Centre to over 22 percent in the South East and North East.

Semi-Detached

Like the detached sector, sales slowed this month for semi-detached properties. However, sales still remain relatively strong and on a year-to-date basis are still higher than levels recorded last year. New listings also slowed, but at a slower pace than sales causing some modest monthly gains in inventory levels and some monthly gains in the months of supply. However, with less than two months of supply, this segment continues to favour the seller.

While prices continued to rise for semi-detached properties, the pace of growth has eased from earlier in the year. In May, the semi-detached benchmark price reached $584,700, nearly 15 percent higher than the same time last year. Price gains have occurred across all districts with the strongest year-over-year gain occurring in the North district of the city.

Row

Like other property types, sales activity trended down from the March high. However, sales in May were still higher than last year’s levels and reflect a new record high for May. Row properties in the city are generally more affordable than both detached and semi-detached properties. Higher prices in other sectors and rate gains are likely driving more consumers toward row-style properties.

While some monthly gains in inventories did help push up the months of supply, with 1.5 months of supply conditions continue to favour the seller. The persistently tight conditions placed further upward pressure on prices, however, the pace of growth is easing. As of May, the benchmark price reached $363,300, nearly 17 percent higher than last year’s levels.

Apartment Condominium

Recent gains in sales and prices likely encouraged the boost in new listings this month for apartment condominiums. While sales did improve significantly compared to last year, the sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 67 percent and inventories edged up over relative to levels seen over the past five months. This rise was enough to push up the months of supply to over two months. While this segment of the market has been more sensitive to supply shifts, conditions still remain relatively tight supporting further price gains.

The benchmark price in May reached $275,300, over one percent higher than last month and nearly nine percent higher than last year. Prices trended up in every district helping support price recovery. Despite the growth, prices are still over 10 percent below the highs set back in 2014.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

For the first time in nearly two years, sales in Airdrie eased over last year’s levels. Meanwhile, the new listings in the market remained comparable to last month but were slightly better than last year’s levels. This helped push inventories and the months of supply up compared to last month. However, with the months of supply remaining at one month, the market remains exceptionally tight.  

Despite tight market conditions, we did see prices take a pause this month, easing slightly over last month but remaining nearly 25 percent higher than levels recorded last year. Prices have been trending up monthly for the better part of two years and the growth at the start of this year has far exceeded expectations. As rates continue to rise and the market shifts to more balanced conditions, we expect the pace of the price growth to start to slow. 

Cochrane

Sales in Cochrane continued to remain strong in May, supporting a year-to-date annual gain of nearly seven percent. While we have seen some signs of improvement in new listings, that was not the case this month. The sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 98 percent, higher than levels seen over the past four months. With no additions to the inventory in the market, the months of supply remained below one month. This supported persistent sellers’ market conditions. 

The tight conditions continue to place upward pressure on prices. However, the pace of growth is starting to slow as May prices were 18 percent higher than last year’s levels. Price growth remains the strongest for detached and semi-detached properties with year-over-year gains pushing 21 percent.

Okotoks

Sales remained relatively strong this month, contributing to a year-to-date gain of nearly 17 percent. This growth was possible as new listings did improve this month. However, with an 87 percent sales to new listings ratio and a months of supply remaining below one month, conditions continue to remain relatively tight in this market.

The benchmark price reached $560,700 in May. This is a significant jump over last month and 19 percent higher than last year’s levels. Like most locations, much of the gain is being driven by the detached sector of the market, which saw prices push up to $625,200 this month.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

According to the Urban Reform Institute’s Demographia International Housing Affordability Study, Calgary ranked 10th out of the 92 cities included in the survey.

Calgary’s affordability, which was based on numbers taken during the fourth quarter of 2021, was up slightly, posting a median multiple of 4.0 compared to 4.1 in the previous study analyzing 2020. Calgary’s 2020 rating placed them 29th on the list.

Cities with a median multiple of 3.0 and under have “affordable” housing markets, while the range from 3.1 to 4.0 is “moderately affordable,” 4.1 to 5.0 is “seriously unaffordable,” and 5.1 and over is “severely unaffordable.”

The median multiple is the price-to-income ratio, which is the median house price divided by the gross median household income, pre-tax. This means that the median house in Calgary costs four times the average annual income in the city.

Edmonton ranked as the most affordable Canadian city in the report, sitting fourth with a rating of 3.6 while Pittsburgh was the most affordable city in the report with a rating of 2.7.

On the other end of the scale, Vancouver, Sydney and Hong Kong were rated as the three most unaffordable cities, with median multiples of 13.3, 15.3 and 23.2 respectively.

“Severely unaffordable housing has spread from Vancouver to smaller markets, as metro Vancouver has shed domestic migration to smaller markets in British Columbia, such as Chilliwack, the Fraser Valley, and Kelowna and markets on Vancouver Island,” read the report.

Toronto finished 83rd, with a median multiple of 10.5, with the report stating the “severely unaffordable housing” trend in Ontario has spread to smaller markets in Ontario, such as Kitchener-Waterloo, Brantford, London and Guelph, as residents of metro Toronto seek lower costs of living.

According to CREB®’s latest housing statistics, Calgary’s benchmark price reached $526,700 in April, nearly two percent higher than last month and 17 percent higher than last year. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s put the average price of a home in that city at $1.2 million in April, while Vancouver’s benchmark house price sat at $1,360,500.

Courtesy CREB

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The Bank of Canada has raised its key interest by another 50 basis points onApril13,2022, bringing it up to one percent. This is the second in an expected series of rate hikes slated for 2022, and the biggest single increase since 2000.

The move follows a 0.25-per-cent increase at the Bank’s last interest rate announcement on March 2, which was the first upward move since October 2018, following a trio of decreases in March 2020, to help ease the economic fallout of COVID-19. This new upward trend is intended to rein in the rapid rise of inflation, which hit a 30-year high of 5.1 percent in January, well above the Bank’s projection of two percent.

The Bank cited the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia as a continuing source of major uncertainty, with spikes in the price of oil, natural gas and other commodities adding to inflation, and exacerbating ongoing supply chain disruptions.

In Canada, the Bank says the economy is chugging on all cylinders, with tight labour markets and wage growth back to pre-pandemic levels. Consumer spending is up as pandemic restrictions continue to ease, and businesses report difficulties meeting demand due to supply chain issues. The housing market is “exceptionally high” but the Bank expects it to moderate.

The Bank of Canada announces its decision on the overnight rate target eight times a year, typically on a Wednesday. The schedule for 2022 is as follows:

• Wednesday, January 26*

• Wednesday, March 2

• Wednesday, April 13*

• Wednesday, June 1

• Wednesday, July 13*

• Wednesday, September 7

• Wednesday, October 26*

• Wednesday, December 7

*Monetary Policy Report published

Price growth expected in all small markets analyzed, with average increases ranging from 3% to 20% in some areas

• Quality of life factors, or “liveability,” are drawing many Canadian homebuyers to small markets (40 percent); followed by housing affordability (37 percent)

• More than a quarter of people living in larger markets (28 percent) would like to move to a smaller market in the next two years

• A quarter of Canadians (25 percent), have received family support to purchase their first or current home; this number is consistent in large and small markets

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC – April 13, 2022 – A new report from RE/MAX Canada finds that “small” Canadian real estate markets are attracting new residents and homebuyers primarily for the liveability factors that they offer, such as green spaces and neighbourhood dynamism, to name a few*, ahead of affordability by a slim margin. The 2022 Small Markets Report analyzed home sales and price trends in the fastest-growing small Canadian housing markets, which are defined as those with the highest population growth rates in 2021, and having a population of less than 440,000, with secondary markets below 100,000**.

Residential prices in these communities have continued to rise as a result of low inventory and growing demand. RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents anticipate residential price growth across all small markets analyzed in the report, with expected price increases ranging from three percent up to 20 percent in some regions through the remainder of 2022. Unsurprisingly, some of these markets have already experienced significant year-over-year price appreciation in the range of 17 to 46 percent.

2022 Canadian Small Real Estate Markets Report

Activity in these communities has been fuelled in part by the financial support that many Canadians have received from family, with 25 percent of Canadians using financial support from family in order to purchase a home, according to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada. RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents in 83 percent of regions surveyed have also witnessed this trend locally, specifically among first-time homebuyers.

“Liveability is all about quality of life, and as we all work toward getting back to enjoying the things we love the most about our communities, it’s not surprising that it ranks so highly in importance for Canadians – especially now,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Despite the fact that the national housing market still has challenges to overcome, smaller communities are viable options for Canadian homebuyers looking for the right balance between liveability and affordability. The increase anticipated for home prices for the remainder of 2022 by our network of brokers and agents is a good indicator of the appeal of these communities.”

However, the desire for liveable communities plays both ways, with 57 percent of residents in small Canadian real estate markets voicing concern that the distinct liveability qualities of their town ─ its charm ─ may be eroded as a result of rising demand from move-over buyers. Another 43 percent share the same anxiety about rising prices, feeling that they could potentially be priced out of their community if the trend persists.

According to the Leger survey, during the pandemic, 23 percent of respondents moved from a larger Canadian housing market to a smaller one, and 85 percent are happy about their move; while 52 percent of Canadians that moved to a small town believe their mental health has improved after moving.

“We’ve seen a greater influx of buyers moving to smaller markets over the past two years, a trend that’s prompted some concern among existing residents. However, the diversity of new homebuyers can be a positive thing for local communities,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “The recent notable growth of these smaller Canadian real estate markets makes it an opportune time for municipal and provincial governments to focus on alleviating these concerns through measures that address affordability and housing supply, but also aim to revitalize and improve community liveability that has made these regions the preferred choice of many Canadians.”

This keen interest in small Canadian real estate markets doesn’t seem to be waning, as gathering and workplace pandemic restrictions continue to ease across the country, and more Canadians return to their office settings on a full-time or hybrid basis. According to the Leger survey, the ability to work from home has motivated 14 percent of Canadians to move to a smaller community. Furthermore, 11 percent of Canadians indicated that should their employer require them to return to work in-person, they would look for another job in order to stay in their small city/town/community.

Regional deep dive into small Canadian real estate markets

RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents were asked to provide an analysis of local market activity for the first quarter in 2022, and give their outlook for the remainder of the year.

ATLANTIC CANADA

RE/MAX Canada surveyed brokers in Moncton, NB, Charlottetown, PEI, Summerside, PEI, Truro, NS and Halifax, NS and found that these regions are all sitting is seller’s territory due to low inventory and insatiable buyer demand, which is expected to continue through the remainder of 2022. Average sale price increases are expected, rising +5.5 percent in Summerside; +12 percent in Charlottetown; +15 percent in Moncton; +19 percent in Halifax; and +20 percent in Truro.

Across Atlantic Canada, out-of-province buyers are driving sales activity due to relative affordability compared to large city centres in other provinces, with buyers most interested in detached homes that offer more living space and, in some cases, water-front properties. Between January and March of 2022, year-over-year average residential sale prices have increased 38 percent in Moncton (which saw its population grow by two percent); 26 percent in Halifax (2.1 percent population growth); 22 percent in Charlottetown, and 20 percent in Summerside (two percent population growth).

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Atlantic Canada anticipate their markets to continue to be sought after by out-of-province buyers, and in some cases new immigrants, as the pandemic has shifted what people want in a home. Specifically, there is a newfound appreciation for smaller communities across Atlantic Canada.

ONTARIO

All of the small markets surveyed in Ontario are seller’s markets with low inventory and high demand. According to RE/MAX brokers and agents, average residential sale prices are expected to increase in Stratford (+eight percent); Centre Wellington (+two percent); Grand Bend (+7.5 percent); Woodstock (+eight percent); Southern Georgian Bay Area (+nine percent); Oshawa (+15 percent); Arnprior (+15 percent); and Carleton Place (+15 percent).

Throughout the pandemic, local RE/MAX brokers have reported an influx of out-of-town buyers seeking affordable housing, larger living spaces and a close-knit community feel. Many of these regions, including Oshawa, Carleton Place, and Arnprior, already have the infrastructure and public transportation in place, offering residents an easy commute to work in the city.

The cities of Oshawa (2.3 percent population growth), Arnprior (2.3 percent population growth) and Carleton Place (3.8 percent population growth) in Ontario are each anticipated to see average sale prices increase by 15 percent through the remainder of 2022, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents. Carleton Place was recently named the fastest-growing community in Canada, which is also impacting its housing market. It currently has multiple new developments in the works, which will bring in more than 1,600 new homes to the area.

WESTERN CANADA

Much like the rest of the country, Western Canada’s small markets continue to favour sellers, including Kelowna, BC (2.6 percent population growth), Chilliwack, BC (2.3 percent population growth), Cranbrook, BC, Brooks, AB, Red Deer, AB and Brandon, MB. Many of these regions are welcoming buyers from other regions and provinces (primarily Ontario), with interest in single-detached homes that offer more indoor and outdoor living space. Over the past few months, these regions have seen stronger buyer confidence and less urgency to purchase a home. This has resulted in fewer bidding wars and signals that the market is beginning to settle; however, it is too early to predict indefinitely. According to RE/MAX brokers and agents, average residential sale prices are expected to increase in +3 percent in Chilliwack, BC, +five percent in Kelowna, BC, +10 percent in Cranbrook, BC, +four percent in Red Deer, AB, +10 percent in Brooks, AB, and +four percent in Brandon, MB.

TERRITORIES

This report also analyzed the region of Whitehorse in the Yukon (2.4 percent population growth), which is currently a seller’s market that is anticipated to continue for the remainder of 2022. Average price is expected to increase +three percent. In this region, condos and townhomes are seeing the most activity, both in terms of sales and new construction. However, supply cannot keep up with the demand, and is driving prices up. Whitehorse has been a hotspot for new immigrants in particular, with municipal programs in place to help them integrate into the community. The region is also seeing out-of-province buyers who are falling in love with the lifestyle of the North.

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About RE/MAX Canada’s 2022 Small Markets Report:

The 2022 RE/MAX Small Markets Report includes data and insights supplied by RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents were surveyed on activity and local developments in small Canadian real estate markets, based on local board data and activity in 2021 and 2022.

*Liveability as defined by the Leger survey respondents, was based on individual subjectiveness for what liveability meant to them. Liveability as defined by RE/MAX is the quality of life that make up your neighbourhood, such as green spaces, transportation, etc. to name a few.

**Small markets were defined as those having the highest population growth rates in 2021, according to Statistics Canada, and population under 440,000, with a secondary criterion in order to ensure a good sample of national markets of those with a population of 100,000 or less. 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The RE/MAX International conference took place last week in Las Vegas, the Viani Real Estate Group was honoured to be recognized amongst some of the top producing REALTORS® in the entire RE/MAX network.

The Viani Real Estate Group was recognized as a Diamond Team for 2021

The Viani Real Estate Group helped over 160 friends, families, businesses and investors achieve their real estate goals in 2021. Through the diverse skill set of our group, we were able to assist clients with their residential, commercial and rural needs. The commercial division of the Viani Real Estate Group was recognized as one of the top-producing real estate teams worldwide.

Thank you to all of our clients, those who referred clients to us and to our families for their continued support, without each of you we could not achieve such success.
Contact us today to achieve your real estate goals, put our experience to work for you.

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