Over the past few months, more sellers have entered the housing market, particularly in September with a surge of new listings in all major Canadian markets. This is thanks to several things, notably rising borrowing costs from higher interest rates, as the latest report from Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics, notes.

Rising interest rates | a push-pull effect

That said – at the same time, these higher rates drive away buyers and weaken demand, resulting in a more relaxed market. This is particularly happening in Ontario and British Columbia, followed by Calgary. Many locales – like Toronto, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley – are favouring buyers, or close to it.

The report states that prices are declining, albeit slightly, as the August and September MLS Home Price Index fell month-over-month for Toronto, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. In Calgary, prices rose and demand-supply stayed tight.

“We expect little change in this broad picture in the months ahead. We think buyers will stay on the defensive in many parts of Canada despite more choices becoming available to them,” shares Hogue. He warns, “High-interest rates, ongoing affordability issues and a looming recession are poised to pose major obstacles. Any material acceleration in the market recovery will have to wait until interest rates come down in 2024.”

The Greater Toronto Area | the balance edges toward buyers

GTA buyers dealt with low inventory but now have more housing options available, with more sellers back on the market. In September, new listings went up by 11 percent, representing the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Yet, sales declined again, this time by 1.8 percent month-over-month. The culprits of this trend are low affordability, high-interest rates and increasing economic uncertainty.

As for prices, a looser demand and supply environment is bringing them down – the Home Price Index lowered month-over-month by about 0.2 percent in August and 0.8 percent in September.

“We expect further erosion in the near term with buyers holding a stronger bargaining position,” Hogue shares. 

Vancouver | quickly softening

Demand-supply conditions in Vancouver have moved fast since June and were on the softer side last month. This is due to notable inventory boosts, especially in September, and cautious buyers (thanks to low affordability and high-interest rates).

“The upshot of this rapid shift has been an end to the price rally that began this winter,” Hogue comments. Indeed, Vancouver’s Home Price Index declined 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent month-over-month, respectively in August and September. He predicts that with rising inventories and new listings above pre-pandemic numbers, prices will trend downward.

Montreal | market recovery is slow with opposing sides

The Montreal market has been slow but is incrementally recovering from the sharp correction it endured in 2022. In September, resales went up nearly 9 percent from the same time last year and over 2 percent from last month.

“Two forces are at play: on one side, an influx of sellers since spring has helped unlock some pent-up demand; on the other, higher interest rates have made it more difficult for buyers to afford a home purchase – muting momentum,” explains Hogue. He notes things have eased between the demand and supply balance, and this maintains overall prices.

Last month, prices for Montreal area condominium units jumped 2.3 percent month-over-month but dropped over 2 percent for detached homes. However, prices of both home types went up a bit from September 2022. Hogue expects similar results over the coming months.

Calgary | on fire

The boom in Calgary’s population (thanks to less expensive home ownership costs than Ontario and B.C.) has the market buzzing. “This is attracting droves of buyers, and driving up real estate transactions and prices to historical highs,” Hogue notes.

For the sixth month in a row, sales went up last month (by about 4 percent month–over–month). Supply is trailing demand, though it continues to grow at a steady pace – keeping the buyer-competitive market favouring sellers.

Compared to Canada’s largest markets, the city’s Home Price Index went up the most in the last year – by 8.7 percent.

“Calgary is easily the tightest (and hottest) market in Canada at the moment … we think upward price pressure isn’t about to let up anytime soon,” shares Hogue.

Courtesy RBC Canada

SEPTEMBER 2023 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

October 3, 2023

Calgary home sales at record highs in September, yet supply remains a challenge

Sales reached another record high in September with 2,441 sales. Despite the year-over-year gains reported over the past four months, year-to-date sales are still nearly 12 per cent lower than last year's levels.

New listings also improved this month compared to last year and relative to sales. This caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 76 per cent, preventing further monthly declines in inventory levels.

Nonetheless, inventory levels in September remained over 24 per cent lower than levels seen last year and, when measured relative to sales activity, has not changed enough to cause any significant shift in supply and demand balances. As of September, the months of supply has remained relatively low at less than two months.

“Supply has been a challenge in our market as strong inter-provincial migration has elevated housing demand despite higher lending rates,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While new listings are improving, it has not been enough to take us out of sellers’ market conditions.”

In September, the unadjusted residential benchmark price was $570,300, similar to last month and nearly nine per cent higher than last year.

Detached

Inventory levels remained at record lows for the month as the sales-to-new listings ratio remained relatively high at 76 per cent. The decline in inventory levels has been driven by homes priced below $700,000, as supply levels show some improvement for homes priced above this level. While detached sales improved over levels reported last year, much of the gains were driven by the higher-priced properties with some supply options. Overall, homes priced below $700,000 continue to struggle with less than one month of supply.

Despite persistently tight market conditions, the unadjusted benchmark price remained relatively stable this month compared to last month, as a monthly price adjustment in the West end of the city offset monthly gains in all other districts. Overall, at a benchmark price of $696,100, prices are still over 11 per cent higher than levels reported last year at this time, with year-over-year gains ranging from a high of 20 per cent in the East district to a low of nine per cent in the City Centre.

Semi-Detached

September reported a boost in new listings compared to sales activity as the sales-to-new listings ratio dropped below 70 per cent, the first time it has done that since September of last year. The one-month shift supported a monthly increase in inventory levels, but with 295 units available, inventories have not been this low since September 2005.

Following ten consecutive monthly price gains, benchmark prices in September did ease slightly over the last month. However, at a benchmark price of $621,300, prices are still 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels. The monthly pause in price was primarily driven by adjustments in the West and North West districts, which saw the months of supply rise above levels reported last year and last month.

Row

The pullback in monthly sales outpaced the pullback in new listings, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 84 per cent. While conditions are still exceptionally tight, it is an improvement over the 90 per cent average reported since April. The shift also prevented any further monthly declines in inventory levels. However, with less than one month of supply, the persistently tight conditions continue to place upward pressure on prices.

The benchmark price in September reached $419,400, a 1.5 per cent monthly gain and 17 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Price gains have occurred across all districts, with the most significant gains occurring in the most affordable districts in the city.

Apartment Condominium

New listings in September were at the highest levels reported for September, contributing to the record-high sales this month. Year-to-date apartment condominium sales reached 6,286 sales, a 25 per cent gain over last year and a record high for the city. Higher lending rates and tight rental market conditions have kept demand for apartment-style products strong. While inventory levels did see a modest gain compared to last month, thanks to a lower sales-to-new-listings ratio, conditions remain exceptionally tight with 1.5 months of supply.

The persistently tight market conditions have continued to drive further price gains. In September, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $312,800, a 1.2 per cent increase over last month and nearly 15 per cent higher than last year.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

With 204 new listings and 144 sales, the sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 70 per cent, the first time that has happened since 2020. Improved new listings compared to sales helped support a modest monthly gain in inventory levels. However, September inventory levels are still amongst the lowest levels reported since 2005, keeping the months of supply exceptionally low with just over one month.

The persistently tight market conditions have continued to drive further price gains in the city. In September, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $518,000, reflecting a year-over-year increase of over eight per cent. Price gains have occurred across all property types, with the largest year-over-year gains occurring in the apartment condominium sector.

Cochrane

Both sales and new listings eased in September, leaving inventory levels relatively stable this month. While inventories are nearly 40 per cent lower than long-term trends for the month, they are not at the record lows seen. The pullback in sales compared to inventory levels also caused the months of supply to push up above two months, the first time we have seen that since February.

While conditions remain relatively tight, the shift likely prevented further upward pressure on monthly home prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in September was $532,700, slightly lower than last month due to pullbacks in the detached, semi-detached and row sectors. Despite the monthly pause, total residential prices are still over five per cent higher than September 2022 levels. 

Okotoks

With 69 new listings and 52 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 75 per cent in September, the lowest ratio seen since August 2022. The gain in new listings relative to sales prevented any further monthly declines in inventory levels. However, with only 70 units available in September, inventory levels are still amongst the lowest reported monthly levels in over 20 years.

The modest adjustment in both inventory and sales did cause the months of supply to rise over last month’s levels. Still, conditions remain relatively tight, especially for semi-detached, row and apartment-style properties. As of September, the unadjusted benchmark price was $580,200, nearly nine per cent higher than last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

AUGUST 2023 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

September 1, 2023

Thanks to a surge in the condominium market, August sales reached a record high with 2,729 sales. Despite the record levels reported over the past several months, year-to-date sales are still down by 15 per cent compared to last year.

While new listings did improve compared to levels seen this time last year, the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained elevated at 87 per cent, preventing any significant shift from the low inventory situation. Inventory levels in August dropped to 3,254 units, not only a record low for the month but well below the 6,000 units that are typically available. Low inventory combined with high sales this month ensured the months of supply remained low at just over one month.

“Higher lending rates have caused many buyers to either hold off on purchase decisions or shift toward more affordable products on the market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “The challenge has been the availability of supply, especially in the detached market. Inventory levels hit record lows in August, and while new listings are higher than last year, conditions continue to favour the seller, driving further price gains.”

The unadjusted benchmark price reached $570,700 in August, representing the eighth consecutive monthly gain. Prices have trended up across all property types, with row-style properties reporting the largest increase.

Detached

Record low inventory levels this month were primarily driven by pullbacks for homes priced under $700,000. While new listings did improve compared to last year, most of the growth was driven by homes priced over $700,000. August sales did improve over last year’s levels. However, limited supply in the lower price ranges has likely prevented stronger detached home sales.

Persistently tight conditions drove further price gains this month. As of August, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $696,700. Nearly one per cent higher than last month and over 10 per cent higher than last year's levels. The highest year-over-year price gains occurred in the most affordable regions of the city's North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached

The 236 new listings and 197 sales did little to change the low inventory situation. While inventory levels did remain comparable to last month, they are still 35 per cent below last year’s levels and at record lows for the month. Relatively strong sales combined with low inventory levels have given sellers the advantage.

With months of supply remaining exceptionally low throughout 2023, we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. As of August, the semi-detached unadjusted benchmark price reached $623,200, a monthly gain of one per cent and 10 per cent higher than last year. Price growth did range across each of the Calgary districts, but the strongest year-over-year gains were reported in the most affordable districts of the North East and East.

Row

The gain in new listings did little to offset the strong sales activity as the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained high at 94 per cent. This prevented any additions to the inventory and left the months of supply below one month for the fifth consecutive month.

The persistently tight conditions placed further upward pressure on home prices. In August, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $413,200, a monthly gain of over one per cent and nearly 16 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Year-over-year gains have occurred across all districts, ranging from 12 per cent in the North West to 29 per cent in the East district.

Apartment Condominium

August sales continue to rise over last month and last year’s levels. Recent gains have caused year-to-date sales to reach 5,582 units, nearly 22 per cent higher than last year’s levels and a new record high for the city. Tight rental markets and relative affordability have driven many purchasers to the apartment condominium sector. At the same time, new listings have struggled to keep pace as the sales-to-new-listings ratio bumped up to 98 per cent in August, causing inventories to ease and the months of supply to drop to one month.

The tight market conditions have been placing upward pressure on home prices, and as of August, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $309,100, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year gain of over 13 per cent. The City Centre is the only district that did not report a monthly price gain, and prices are still below their previous highs in 2014. This is partly due to better supply/demand balances in the City Centre compared to other parts of the city.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

With 204 sales and 206 new listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio pushed up to 99 per cent, causing inventory levels to decline. With only 176 units available in inventory, the months of supply once again dropped below one month.

The persistently tight market conditions continued to place upward pressure on home prices. In August, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $515,600, up from last month and nearly six per cent higher than last year's.

Cochrane

Following several months of inventory gains, August saw inventory levels fall to 144 units due to a pullback in new listings. While sales did improve compared to last year, the pullback in new listings caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to increase to 91 per cent. Meanwhile, the months of supply remained below two months, not as tight as what is being experienced in Airdrie but far lower than what we would typically expect in the town.

The persistently tight market conditions drove further price gains this month. The unadjusted benchmark price reached $534,700 in August, nearly one per cent higher than last month and over four per cent higher than last year’s levels. Prices trended up across all property types, but the most significant monthly gains occurred in the relatively affordable apartment condominium sector.

Okotoks

The 59 sales in August were met with 65 new listings in the month, causing further retractions to the already low inventory levels. With only 64 units available, Inventory levels hit a new record low for August. The drop in inventory also caused the months of supply to remain low at one month.

Despite the tight market conditions, benchmark prices decreased from last month’s high. The monthly variation is not uncommon for smaller centres, and it is important to note that with a benchmark price of $582,000, prices remain seven per cent higher than last year's levels and 10 per cent higher than where we were at the start of the year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) has released its Q2 2023 Housing Market Report. The report highlights a dynamic real estate landscape in the City of Calgary, showcasing strong trends in sales, demand and pricing.

As expected, sales activity has slowed from last year’s record-breaking pace while staying stronger than long-term trends. What was not expected was the robust demand in the higher price segments of the market despite higher lending rates.

“An influx of migrants coming from Ontario and British Columbia are likely contributing to some of the strength for higher priced properties, as the relative affordability could make migrants less sensitive to the recent gains in lending rates, said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "At the same time, continued strength in our labour market is supporting demand across all property types.”

However, the robust demand is met with a shortage in supply. Housing inventory levels have remained notably low across various segments, encompassing the resale, new home, and rental markets. Despite relatively strong new home starts, these have not been sufficient to alleviate inventory constraints, primarily due to the influx of migrants. Resale supply has also encountered unexpected challenges, as higher lending rates and limited choices in supply have deterred existing homeowners from making changes.

The prevailing shortage in supply has contributed to the continuation of tight market conditions, which has led to stronger-than-expected price growth across all property types in the city. This steady appreciation in prices throughout the year has effectively offset declines observed in the latter half of 2022, ultimately resulting in new record-high prices.

“Home prices have exceeded our expectations as supply challenges have persisted throughout the spring market, added Lurie. “While the pace of monthly gains is expected to slow in the second half of the year, limited supply choice is expected to keep prices elevated throughout the second half of the year.”

Courtesy CREB®

2023 MOVE-UP MARKET REPORT

Existing homeowners are driving housing market gains ahead of interest rate hikes, as home ownership continues to be a top priority for Canadians from coast to coast

NATIONAL MARKET TRENDS

What began as a trickle of movement into housing markets late in the first quarter turned into a swell, as move-up buyers drove strong demand for residential properties across the country throughout the second quarter of the year. Buyers took advantage of the Bank of Canada’s temporary pause in overnight rate hikes in the second quarter of the year, sparking a flurry of activity in the mid-to upper-price ranges in Canada’s biggest housing markets. Tight inventory levels placed upward pressure on values, prompting double-digit price increases in five of the nine markets analyzed, between January and June of 2023. These include Regina, Greater Toronto, Hamilton, Winnipeg and Montreal. Meanwhile, single-digit price upswings were noted in the four remaining markets – Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa and Halifax – as sellers held on to properties that fell short of peak price levels reported one year ago. Fear of further rate hikes continues to impact the market psyche, with many move-up buyers hoping to get into the market before rates climb again. RE/MAX brokers noted increased urgency in the market as buyers sought to obtain mortgage pre-approvals with guaranteed rate holds in place for a 120-day period, prior to both the BoC’s June and July announcements.

“January marked the trough for residential activity, as sales and prices reached new lows. When the Bank of Canada signalled its intent to hold on further interest rate hikes, the floodgates opened, sending buyers into the market from coast to coast. Inventory challenges re-emerged in most major centres as demand once again outpaced supply. Quality listings were quickly snapped up, many moving in multiple-offer situations, which served to draw more sellers into the market in April. By May, the market was moving full speed ahead until the Bank announced its decision to raise the overnight rate in June and again in July, taking the wind out of the proverbial sails of most markets, with some exceptions, namely Calgary, Regina and Montreal.” Christopher Alexander President, RE/MAX Canada.

Equity gains also factored into Canadians’ decision to move up to larger homes or better neighbourhoods, despite the pandemic-induced rise and fall of real estate value. This was especially true in central and eastern Canada. With trade-up activity traditionally occurring within four to seven years of the initial home purchase, RE/MAX examined pricing in June 2018 compared to June 2023 and found that almost every market reported a significant upswing in value over the five-year period, ranging from just over three percent in Regina to more than 80 percent in Halifax. “While the threat of further interest rate hikes has given some pause to the market, particularly at entry-level price points, robust equity gains over the past five-year period provided the means and confidence to fuel solid buyer intentions in move-up markets across the country,” explains Alexander.

Necessity was the primary factor driving demand through the first half of 2023. Whether it was a growing family, the need for more space to accommodate new work-from-home arrangements and schedules, or a better school district, quality-of-life considerations were central to purchasing decisions. This proved true regardless of the move being made – whether downsizing or simplifying in more walkable neighbourhoods closer to the core, trading up or making lateral moves, urban or suburban.

“Inevitably, periods of contraction and short-term restraint ultimately give rise to increased pent-up demand. You can only hold back the impetus for so long. Real estate, after all, is driven largely by lifecycle events and broader factors such as population growth. While some will adjust their timing, most purchasers will eventually move forward, and we’ve seen that pattern emerge time and time again as move-up buyers nationwide re-ignite demand and competition for a limited number of listings.” Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada

With July’s 0.25 basis point rate hike, the BoC’s key rate now sits at five percent, and homebuying activity is expected to slow through the summer months in most major Canadian housing markets. However, once it’s clear that the BoC is nearing the end of quantitative tightening and rates start to unwind, demand for housing will likely ramp up yet again. With uncertainty around financing out of the equation, the focus should remain squarely on supply again. In the move-up market and across the board, that will translate to renewed upward pressure on pricing. “One simply cannot understate the serious repercussions the housing shortage will continue to have on Canadian real estate and affordability,” explains Alexander. “In the short term, while the BoC’s movements may clamp down on housing demand, especially at lower price points, we expect they will have unintended consequences, serving as a temporary dam causing pent-up demand to build and new home construction to contract. When the BoC decides to finally relax quantitative measures and the dam bursts, housing supply will fall even shorter amid record population growth.”

CALGARY MARKET TRENDS

While sales in the Calgary housing market remain more than 20 percent off last year’s torrid pace, activity has been exceptionally robust in the first half of the year in Calgary. Inventory shortages across all housing types and price ranges have created a competitive marketplace, with one in every three homes now sold in a multiple-offer situation. Lack of supply has impacted sales figures, with inventory down almost 30 percent compared to last year. According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, more than 14,300 homes have sold year-to-date, down from 18,687 during the same period in 2022. Year-to-date average price now hovers at $539,668, close to two percent ahead of the $529,826 reported one year ago, making Calgary one of the only markets in the country where the average price now exceeds 2022 levels.

Strong economic fundamentals and affordability are behind the push for the Calgary housing market. Values are amongst the lowest in major Canadian centres. During the pandemic, the province saw a significant upswing in in-migration as affordable housing and job opportunities attracted buyers from other provinces, including British Columbia and Ontario. That trend has continued in 2023 as buyers from other provinces seek to realize homeownership.

Move-up buyers have been active in the Calgary housing market, with the greatest demand occurring between $500,000 and $700,000. Listings remain scarce as existing homeowners are reluctant to sell for fear of not being able to find a new home and/or get back into the market. Buyers have subsequently expanded their search perimeters to ensure that any two-storey home with a double-attached garage is considered, whether it’s in the north or south, east or west end of the city. Frustration is building with every lost bid.

The latest of the Bank of Canada rate hikes, intended to quell activity, only served to drive more buyers into the market, many are concerned that housing values will rise beyond their reach. Supply constraints are expected to be the greatest challenge facing buyers heading into the second half of the year when available listings typically decline. At the current rate, unit sales in Calgary are forecast to match or exceed year-ago levels, while average price pulls ahead.

Courtesy RE/MAX Canada.

JULY 2023 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

August 1, 2023

Calgary home prices reach new heights: July sees seventh consecutive monthly gain

Rising rates had little impact on sales this month as the 2,647 sales represented a year-over-year gain of 18 per cent, reflecting the strongest July levels reported on record. The record-setting pace has been driven mainly by significant gains in the relatively affordable apartment condominium sector. Despite recent gains, year-to-date sales have declined by 19 per cent over last year.

In line with seasonal expectations, sales and new listings trended down compared to last month. However, this had minimal impact on inventory levels, which remained near the July record low set in 2006. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 82 per cent and a months of supply of 1.3 months, conditions continue to favour the seller.

“Continued migration to the province, along with our relative affordability, has supported the stronger demand for housing despite higher lending rates,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “At the same time, we continue to struggle with supply in the resale, new home and rental markets resulting in further upward pressure on home prices.”

In July, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $567,700, marking the seventh consecutive monthly gain. Prices are now over four per cent higher than the previous peak in May of 2022.

Detached

With 1,197 sales and 1,587 new listings in July, inventory levels trended up over last month. However, with 1,720 units available, inventory levels are at the lowest ever reported for July. Inventory levels have declined across all properties priced below $1,000,000.

Shifts in sales and inventory have caused the months of supply to trend up over the one month reported over the past several months. However, conditions remain relatively tight, and prices continued to rise this month. In July, the unadjusted benchmark price rose to $690,500, a monthly gain of nearly one per cent and over seven per cent higher than last July. Both year-over-year and monthly price growth was strongest in the city's most affordable North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached

With only 248 new listings in July and 211 sales, the sales-to-new-listings ratio once again pushed above 85 per cent. The pullback in new listings relative to sales ensured that inventory levels remained low, and the months of supply remained just over one month.

With no shift in the sellers’ market conditions, the unadjusted benchmark price continued to trend up in July, reaching $616,800. Monthly gains were strongest in the North East and East district as both rose by over two per cent compared to June. The only district that experienced stability in monthly prices was the City Centre.

Row

July reported 488 new listings and 467 sales, resulting in a sales-to-new listings ratio of 96 per cent. This prevented any additions to the inventory and left the months of supply below one month for the fourth consecutive month.

The persistent sellers’ market conditions caused further price gains for row properties. As of July, the benchmark price reached $407,500, nearly two per cent higher than last month and 14 per cent higher than prices reported last July. Prices trended up across all districts, with the highest monthly gain occurring in the west district at nearly four per cent. The slowest monthly gains happened in the City Centre.

Apartment Condominium

July sales continued to rise over last year's levels, leaving year-to-date sales 16 per cent higher than levels reported last year. This is the only property type that has reported a year-to-date gain in sales activity. This has been possible thanks to recent gains in new listings. However, conditions remain tight for apartment condominiums with a sales-new-listings ratio of 84 per cent and a months of supply of 1.4 months.

The strong demand relative to supply for this property type has driven further price gains this month. As of July, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $305,900, nearly one per cent higher than last month and over 12 per cent higher than last July. While prices are higher than last year in every district, the city center has yet to see the same level of pressure on prices and has reported the lowest year-over-year growth at nearly nine per cent.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

New listings this month remained comparable to last month. Meanwhile, sales trended down, supporting a modest gain in inventory and a sales-to-new listings ratio of 84 per cent. This also helped push the months of supply back above one month.

Despite the monthly gain in the months of supply, conditions remain exceptionally tight and continue to favour the seller. This caused further price growth as the unadjusted benchmark price rose nearly one per cent over last month to $514,100. Prices have been improving across all property types, but the detached benchmark price has pushed above $600,000 in Airdrie for the first time.

Cochrane

With 110 new listings and 85 sales, the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained at 77 per cent this month. This helped contribute to a modest gain in inventory levels, and the months of supply rose to nearly two months.

Despite this shift, conditions remained exceptionally tight in the Centre, and prices continued to trend up. As of July, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $529,700, nearly one per cent higher than last month and over three per cent higher than last July. Price growth has occurred across all property types, and the detached benchmark price now sits at $626,100.

Okotoks

July reported 78 new listings and 67 sales, keeping the sales-to-new-listings ratio elevated at 86 per cent and preventing any significant shift in inventory levels. Nonetheless, the months of supply did rise to above one month following the exceptionally low levels reported over the past two months.

While conditions are not as tight as last month, the market still favours the seller, and prices trended up over last month, with a benchmark price reaching $586,900. Prices now sit over seven per cent higher than last year, with the most significant year-over-year gain occurring in the semi detached sector. Detached benchmark prices pushed up to $655,100 in July,

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.

The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.

Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.

As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.

Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.

In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.

In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.

Courtesy The Bank of Canada

JUNE 2023 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

July 4, 2023

Another record-high month for Calgary

The housing market in Calgary witnessed a surge in apartment condominium sales, setting a new total residential record with 3,146 sales achieved in June. Although year-to-date sales are currently 23 percent lower than last year, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Notably, there has been a positive trend in new listings, providing relief and a monthly increase in inventory levels. However, despite these improvements, the inventory for June stood at 3,458 units, marking a decline of over 36 percent from last year and reaching the lowest levels for June in nearly two decades.

“The demand for housing remains robust, bolstered by a healthy labour market and increased migration levels, which helps offset the impact of higher lending rates,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Although we have seen some recent improvements in new listings, particularly for apartment condominiums, it is not enough to cause any substantial change from the low inventory situation in our city. While new home starts are on the rise, it will take time to observe their impact on supply.”

With a supply of just over one month, the current market conditions continue to favour sellers, placing upward pressure on home prices. In June, the total residential benchmark price reached $564,700, representing a monthly unadjusted gain of one percent and four percent higher than last year's levels.

Detached

A monthly gain in new listings supported a monthly increase in inventory levels. However, with only 1,651 units available in June, levels hit a new record low for the month. Inventories declined across most price ranges, but the steepest declines occurred in homes priced below $600,000. Of all the inventory in June, only 24 per cent was priced below $600,000, a significant drop from last year, where that market segment represented 45 per cent of the supply.

Limited inventory, especially in the lower price ranges, ensured that the market continued to favour the seller, driving further gains in home prices. As of June, the benchmark price reached $685,100, an unadjusted monthly gain of nearly two per cent and a year-over-year increase of six per cent. Year-over-year gains were the highest in the most affordable North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached

New listings in June improved, helping support modest monthly gains in inventory levels. However, with 268 units in inventory and 240 sales, the months of supply remained exceptionally tight at just over one month. The persistently tight market conditions have contributed to further price gains for this property type. As of June, the benchmark price reached $613,100, over two per cent higher than last month and nearly six per cent higher than levels reported in the previous year at this time.

Persistently tight conditions across all districts supported price growth. Year-over-year price growth ranged from a low of 4.5 per cent in the city centre to a high of 17 per cent in the East district. 

Row

Both sales and new listings trended up over the levels reported last month. Still, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 86 per cent and months of inventory below one month, conditions continued to favour the seller placing upward pressure on home prices.

In June, the benchmark price reached $400,000, over two per cent higher than last month and over 11 per cent higher than last year. Prices improved across all districts in the city, with the most significant monthly gains occurring in the East, North East and South districts. These districts have also reported year-over-year price gains of nearly 20 per cent.

Apartment Condominium

Sales in June reached 857 units, 48 per cent higher than last year. Over the past three months, sales growth was enough to cause year-to-date sales to rise by 11 per cent over last year. The gain in sales was possible thanks to improving new listings. However, persistently strong demand for affordable product has prevented inventories from improving. In June, inventory levels reached 1,116 units, the lowest level for the month reported since June 2013.

Persistently tight conditions contributed to the sixth consecutive month where prices rose. As of June, the benchmark price reached $303,200, nearly two per cent higher than last month and 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels. While unadjusted prices have hit a new record high, prices remain below the peak in the City Centre, North East and East districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

A pullback in new listings contributed to slower sales activity this month. With 245 new listings and 221 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained elevated at 90 per cent. This also prevented any significant shift in the inventory situation, keeping the months of supply below one month.

As market conditions continue favouring the seller, Airdrie reports further gains in home prices. As of June, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $511,100, representing a new record high for the city. Prices have risen across all property types, with the largest gains occurring in the row and apartment condominium sectors.

Cochrane

Sales activity in June eased, contributing to the year-to-date decline of 30 per cent. While the decline seems significant, levels are still far higher than any sales level reported before the pandemic. Like other areas, Cochrane is struggling with low inventory levels as significant declines in new listings limit consumers' choices.

Persistently tight market conditions have contributed to further gains in home prices. As of June, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $526,500, nearly two per cent higher than last month’s and last year’s levels. This also reflects a new record high price for the town. 

Okotoks

With 87 sales and 84 new listings, the sales to new listings ratio once again pushed above 100 per cent. This caused further inventory declines, and the months of supply dropped to 0.7 months, the lowest level ever reported for June.

The persistently tight conditions caused prices to rise again in June. The unadjusted benchmark price reached a record high of $585,300, reflecting a two per gain over last month and six per cent higher than last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

For years, RE/MAX agents have earned the trust of buyers and sellers across Canada. This stems from their unparalleled experience, productivity, and professionalism in the ever-changing real estate market, but is also derived from the overall reputation of the RE/MAX brand.

*According to Leger’s 2023 Reputation Study, RE/MAX was ranked the most reputable real estate company in Canada.*

Leger is the largest Canadian-owned market research and analytics company. Their 2023 Reputation Study provides a comprehensive analysis of the reputation of 299 Canadian companies across 30 sectors of activity. Each company is analyzed based on six criteria, and is evaluated by more than 2,000 Canadians, with more than 38,000 Canadians surveyed in total.

The six core pillars of corporate reputation that are measured in the study include: financial strength, social responsibility, honesty and transparency, quality, attachment and innovation.

RE/MAX’s reputation ranking also experienced year-over-year growth in 2023** and is among the top 100 most reputable companies in Canada*** proving that RE/MAX continues to rise above its competitors and earn the trust of more homebuyers and sellers.

“Behind every successful real estate transaction is a foundation built on trust,” says Christopher Alexander, President of RE/MAX Canada. “We’re honoured to be recognized as the most reputable real estate company in Canada, and we look forward to continuing to help buyers and sellers achieve their real estate goals in this ever-changing market.”

Courtesy RE/MAX Canada

The dream of homeownership lives on for Canadians, according to a recent poll conducted by CIBC.

Homeownership remains a top goal for 71 per cent of non-homeowners, while the majority of mortgage holders (82 per cent) and renters (64 per cent) express concerns about inflation and rising rates affecting their ability to meet mortgage payments or rental costs.

Homeowners happy to stay put

Given the current state of the housing market, a significant proportion of homeowners (66 per cent) revealed their inclination to stay in their homes for longer than originally planned. 

Economic conditions will be a decisive factor for 40 per cent of homeowners who may consider selling their properties once stability returns. Around 31 per cent of respondents declared their current homes as their “forever home.” 

Furthermore, the poll indicated that 30 per cent of homeowners intend to take advantage of the recently available multi-generational home renovation tax credit within the next five years.

However, a notable portion of homeowners expressed regret regarding the timing of their house purchases. Thirty-seven per cent wished they had bought their homes when mortgage rates were lower, while 30 per cent regretted not selling their homes during the recent housing market peak.

Helping the next generation achieve homeownership

The survey also revealed that 63 per cent of respondents with children intend to assist them with a down payment in the future, with 79 per cent expressing worries about the future affordability of homes for their children. 

Recognizing the potential unattainability of homeownership for their children without assistance, many Canadians are prepared to lend a helping hand. 

Carissa Lucreziano, vice president of Financial and Investment Advice at CIBC, emphasized the significance of this gesture while urging individuals to consider the impact on their own financial situations. 

“Many Canadians recognize that homeownership could be out of reach for their children unless they have help with a down payment,” Lucreziano recognizes.

Preferences for previously owned homes

The survey also sheds light on the preferences of recent first-time homebuyers, with the majority (59 per cent) opting for previously owned homes such as detached, semi-detached or townhomes. 

Fifteen per cent purchased pre-construction homes through builders or contractors, while the same percentage chose previously owned condominiums. Only seven percent of first-time buyers opted for pre-construction condominiums.

Renters struggling with future rental costs

The growing unease about affordability is a shared sentiment among both homeowners and renters.

While some renters (46 per cent) feel more capable of meeting their rent payments compared to a year ago, the majority (64 per cent) still express concerns about keeping up with future rental costs.

** Courtesy Real Estate Magazine **

MAY 2023 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

JUNE 1, 2023

May sales reach a record high

Thanks to a significant gain in apartment condominium sales, May sales rose to 3,120, a new record high for the month. While the monthly gains have not outweighed earlier declines, this does reflect a shift from the declines reported at the start of the year.

At the same time, we continue to see fewer new listings on the market than last year, causing inventory levels to fall. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 85 per cent and months of supply of one month, conditions continue to favour the seller placing further upward pressure on home prices.

“Calgary’s housing market continues to exceed expectations with the recent gain in sales activity this month,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “The higher interest rate environment and recent rental rate gains have driven more consumers to seek apartment condominium units. In addition, the recent rise in new apartment listings has provided enough options to support the sales gain. Calgary continues to benefit from the relatively healthy job market and recent population growth keeping housing demand strong across all property types.”

Persistently tight market conditions drove further price growth this month. In May, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $557,000, over one per cent higher than last month and nearly three per cent higher than last year’s monthly peak price of $543,000.

Detached

Rising sales for homes priced above $600,000 was not enough to offset declines in the lower price ranges as May sales reached 1,486, a year-over-year decline of eight per cent. New listings continue to fall for homes priced below $700,000, providing limited choice for consumers seeking out lower-priced detached homes. While new listings did improve for higher-priced properties, the relatively strong demand kept conditions tight across all price ranges, driving further price gains.

In May, the detached benchmark price reached $674,000, nearly two per cent higher than last month and over four per cent higher than last year’s peak price of $647,000. While each district reported a new record high price this month, the year-over-year gains ranged from a high of 12 per cent in the East District to a low of two per cent in the City Centre.

Semi-Detached

Sales also rose to near-record highs for the month for semi-detached homes. However, with 279 sales and 269 new listings this month, inventories fell, and the months of supply dropped below one month.

The exceptionally tight conditions caused further price gains, which for the first time, pushed above $600,000. This is the seventh consecutive month where prices have trended up, and as of May, levels are over three per cent higher than last year’s monthly peak. Like the detached sector, each district reported new record high prices in May. However, the strongest year-over-year gains occurred in the most affordable East district at nearly 12 per cent.

Row

New listings in May improved over levels seen earlier in the year, but thanks to monthly gains in sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained exceptionally high at 89 per cent, preventing any significant shift in the low inventory situation. While sales activity is still lower than last year’s levels, this is likely related to the lack of supply in this segment of the market.  Inventory levels are down 50 per cent compared to last year.

With less than one month of supply, it is not a surprise that prices continue to rise. In May, the benchmark price reached $390,500, a two per cent gain over last month and nearly nine per cent higher than last year's peak price of $359,600. Row prices rose across all districts, with year-over-year gains exceeding 15 per cent in the city's North East, South and East districts. The slowest price gains occurred in The City Centre, North West and South East at rates of over seven per cent.

Apartment Condominium

Sales in May reached 858 units, a year-over-year gain of 36 per cent and high enough to cause year-to-date sales to rise by four per cent for a new record high. Stronger sales were possible thanks to the recent gains in new listings. There were 1,025 new listings in May, a year-over-year gain of eight per cent. Despite the gain in new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained high at 84 per cent, preventing any significant shift in inventory levels. As a result, inventory levels remained 23 per cent lower than what was available in the market in May 2022. The rising sales and low inventories kept the months of supply low at just over one month.

Persistently tight conditions drove further price gains in May. The unadjusted benchmark price reached $298,600, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year gain of nearly 11 per cent. The recent growth has finally caused unadjusted apartment condominium prices to return to 2014 levels. Unlike other areas, not all districts reported a new record high price. The only areas to report a full recovery were the North, North West, West and South East districts. Overall year-over-year price growth ranged from a high of 16 per cent in the North District to a low of 10 per cent growth in the City Centre.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Limited supply choice continues to weigh on sales activity in Airdrie. In May, there were 260 new listings and 225 sales, keeping the sales to new listings ratio high at 87 per cent and preventing any significant shift in inventory levels. However, with less than one month of supply, conditions are tighter than they were last year at this time.

Persistently tight conditions caused prices to trend up for the fifth consecutive month. The benchmark price reached $502,900 in May, remaining shy of the record high of $504,200 achieved in April 2022. While total residential prices have not reached new record highs, detached home prices have reached a new record with a benchmark price of $587,200.

Cochrane

Like other markets in the area, the limited level of new listings is preventing stronger sales activity. In May, 135 new listings came onto the market, and there were 122 sales, keeping the sales-to-new listings ratio elevated at 90 per cent. While inventory levels are still higher than last year’s, they are still exceptionally low for this time of year, leaving the months of supply just above one month in May.

The persistently tight conditions caused prices to trend up for the fourth consecutive month. While the benchmark price of $515,600 remains below the monthly high of $517,900 achieved in June 2022, should conditions continue to remain this tight, we could see further upward pressure on home prices over the next several months. 

Okotoks

Like other markets, low levels of new listings are limiting sales activity in the town. In May, new listings reached 87 units, and with 76 sales, the sales to new listings ratio pushed above 87 per cent. This also prevented any significant shift in inventory levels, and the months of supply once again dropped below one month.

Persistently tight market conditions caused prices to trend up for the fifth consecutive month. With a benchmark price of $575,900, prices are nearly four per cent above last year’s levels and at a new record high.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Alberta’s strong economic performance continues to fuel commercial real estate in Calgary, with most asset classes experiencing solid activity from both a lease and sales perspective.

Spillover from out of province remains a major source of business in the industrial sector, with warehousing and distribution properties topping the list of investor demands. Given limited availability of industrial space in the lower mainland, most containers that are shipped to BC are now loaded onto trucks for a 13-hour journey to Calgary’s ‘inland port.’ The supply of serviced land zoned industrial has fallen as a result, placing upward pressure on prices and raising lease rates, especially for newer product. Older properties available for sale may provide better returns, or more affordable rental opportunities. Availability continues to trend downward despite on-going new construction, with rates falling to 3.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, down from 5.5 per cent during the same period one year ago, according to Altus Group. De Havilland Canada is one of the recent companies to set up shop in Calgary, through its acquisition of 1500 acres in Wheatland County just 30 minutes east of Calgary. The company intends to build a state-of-the-art facility that includes aircraft assembly, runway, parts manufacturing, distribution centres and maintenance repair and overhaul centre. De Havilland Field is expected to be up and running in 2025 and employ more than 1,500 people.

Calgary’s office market has made some headway in the first quarter of the year, with availability rates edging downward. Two factors have contributed to the decline: the uptick in tech businesses and the repurposing of existing commercial to residential. Attracted to the value proposition of the Calgary commercial real estate market, a young workforce, and incentives offered by the Alberta’s Investment and Growth Fund, tech companies, including global tech firm Applexus Technologies, have started moving into the downtown core. Commercial repurposing has also met with success, thanks in large part to a government program providing incentives to convert office space to residential. Ten buildings have been earmarked for repurposing, representing more than 1,200 new homes in the core. The move also eliminates one million square feet of empty office space. Together, these factors have had an enormous impact on the downtown core, increasing vibrancy and sparking renewal in the city that includes a strong retail/restaurant component to service the growing residential presence. These two incentive programs have been so effective to date that lease rates are starting to climb in the core once again.

Suburban office space, particularly in Calgary’s Quarry Park, has been an attractive alternative to the core in recent years, with Imperial Oil leading the charge to the suburbs about eight years ago. The low-key presence within residential communities continues to resonate with many tenants. Lease rates for office space in the suburbs range from $10 per square foot to $15 per square foot.

Low vacancy rates characterize demand for retail space and buildings in Calgary at present. The area’s shopping malls remain vibrant, with Canadian Tire taking over many of the Bed, Bath and Beyond locations in Calgary.

Land sales overall remain brisk, with out-of-province investors seeking industrial, multi-family, and retail properties for development. Existing multi-family is experiencing solid demand from Ontario buyers, especially for new buildings with assumable CMHC financing in place. Recent data available from the Canadian Home Builders Association’s (CHBA) 2022 Municipal Benchmarking Report, prepared by Altus Group, shows that estimated approval timelines for residential development are amongst the fastest in the country at five months in 2022, down from 12 months in 2020. Cap rates in this segment of the market have waned over the past year. REITs are active in the market, typically seeking land zoned residential with approvals for purpose-built rentals in place. Given the higher interest rate environment, some vendor take back mortgages are available but they are generally found on overpriced listings.

Strong population growth, government incentives, and lower tax structures continue to draw companies both east and west of the province to Calgary and its surrounding communities. After an extended period of financial hardship between 2010 and 2020 in the province, the rebound in oil and gas prices, combined with a growing tech centre, and new residential development in the downtown core, are changing the landscape for the better.

**Courtesy RE/MAX Canada**