MAY 2024 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

June 3, 2024

In a market that continues to show resilience, May saw a total of 3,092 resale home sales. While this figure is nearly one per cent below last year's record high, it is 34 per cent higher than long-term trends for the month. The pullback in sales was primarily driven by declines in lower-priced detached and semi-detached homes, where there was limited supply choice compared to last year.

"Although new listings have increased, much of this growth is in higher price ranges for each property type," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Our strong economic situation has supported sales growth in these higher price ranges. However, this month's sales could not offset the declines in the lower price ranges due to a lack of supply choice."

New listings in May reached 4,333 units, almost 19 per cent higher than last year. This increase in new listings compared to sales caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to drop to 71 per cent, supporting a modest year-over-year inventory gain. Despite this, inventory levels remained nearly half what we typically see in May, with most gains driven by homes priced above $700,000.

While inventories did improve this month, conditions continue to favour sellers with one month of supply. Several districts continue to report less than one month of supply, while the City Centre reported the highest supply-to-sales ratio at one and a half months. Seller market conditions drove price growth across all districts in the city. The unadjusted total residential benchmark price in May reached $605,300, nearly one per cent higher than last month and 10 per cent higher than last May. 

Detached

The gain in detached sales for homes priced over $700,000 was not enough to offset pullbacks across the lower price ranges, as year-over-year sales declined by seven per cent. At the same time, new listings rose enough to cause the sales-to-new-listings ratio to drop to 68 per cent, supporting inventory growth. However, inventory levels for homes priced below $600,000 continued to fall, accounting for only 13 per cent of the detached market.

With just over one month of supply, the detached market continues to favour the seller, and prices continue to rise. As of May, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $761,800, over one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than prices reported last year. Prices improved across all districts, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring in the most affordable districts. 

Semi-Detached

The year-over-year decline in sales did not offset earlier gains, as year-to-date sales rose by nearly 11 per cent. Like the detached sector, we have also seen improved levels of new listings come onto the market, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to drop to 72 per cent and driving some gains in inventory levels. 

Nonetheless, the market continues to favour the seller with one month of supply. The persistently tight market conditions continue to drive up prices. The benchmark price reached $678,000 in May, over one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than last May. 

Row

May reported 540 sales, a gain over last year that has contributed to the 16 per cent year-to-date rise. At the same time, new listings also rose, supporting a gain in inventory levels. Inventory levels have declined for properties below $400,000, but the gains reported for higher-priced row properties were enough to support overall inventory gains. 

With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 78 per cent and a months of supply below one month, conditions continue to favour the seller, driving further price growth. In May, the benchmark price reached $462,500, nearly two per cent higher than last month and over 19 per cent higher than last year’s levels.

Apartment Condominium

Demand for affordable homes continues to drive growth for apartment condominium-style homes. May sales continued to rise, contributing to the year-to-date record high with a 19 per cent gain. This was partly possible thanks to gains in new listings preventing a further drop in inventory levels. While inventory levels are similar to last year, the gains for products over $300,000 offset the steep declines for lower-priced homes.

With a months of supply of just over one month, conditions still favour the seller, and prices continued to increase compared to last month's and last year’s levels. Year-over-year price gains exceeded 30 per cent in the North East and East districts, with the lowest price growth occurring in the City Centre at 13 per cent.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

A boost in new listings compared to sales helped support a gain in inventory this month. However, with only 208 units available, levels are still half what we traditionally see in the market in May. Detached homes accounted for nearly 70 per cent of all the inventory in Airdrie, with half of the detached supply priced below $700,000.

While Airdrie remains a relatively affordable alternative to Calgary for consumers, benchmark prices continue to rise over last month's and last year's levels. Benchmark prices ranged from $289,000 for apartment-style homes to $651,000 for detached properties.

Cochrane

This month's 132 new listings were nearly matched with the 130 sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 98 per cent and inventories to decline. 

The persistently tight market conditions continue to drive further price growth. The total residential benchmark price rose by over one per cent compared to last month and 10 per cent over last year. The most significant price growth occurred for apartment-style homes, which reached $304,900. Detached home prices rose to $667,700 in May. 

Okotoks

Inventory levels in Okotoks continued to remain exceptionally low in May. With only 84 units in inventory, levels are 55 per cent lower than what is traditionally available in the market. While new listings improved slightly in May, the 100 new listings were met with 75 sales, keeping the sales-to-new listings ratio elevated at 75 per cent. 

With one month of supply in the town, it is no surprise that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In May, the unadjusted residential benchmark price rose by one per cent over last month and is over eight per cent higher than last year’s. Prices ranged from $262,500 for an apartment condominium to $699,600 for a detached home.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

National Cottage Market Outlook

From a Canada-wide perspective, a flood of listings hasn’t hit the recreational property market this spring, and is unlikely to transpire this year. Despite the affordability challenges and higher interest rates that characterized the 2023 real estate market, Canada’s cottage owners are choosing to hold on to their properties in 2024 rather than selling off – a trend that’s likely influenced by the desirable quality of life alongside the prospect of future returns on recreational property ownership. Looking ahead, RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada are anticipating the national average cottage price to increase 6.8 percent. Meanwhile, the number of sales is expected to rise in the majority of regions analyzed (61.9 percent), increasing between three percent upwards of 50 percent this year.

Cottage prices have increased in 83 percent of Western Canada’s recreational markets, according to RE/MAX Canada’s 2024 Cottage Trends Report. Year-over-year gains were noted in Whistler (+7.5 percent, from $1,633,855 in Q1 of 2023 to $1,756,473 in  Q1 of 2024); Tofino (+100 percent from $0 in Q1 in 2023 due to no available inventory, to $1,001,116 in Q1 of 2024); Edmonton Lakes (+11.8 percent, from $639,750 in Q1 of 2023 to $715,300 in Q1 of 2024**); Canmore (+8.1 percent, from $962,619 in Q1 of 2023 to $1040,422 in Q1 of 2024); and Sylvan Lake and Central Alberta (+14.9 percent, from $580,357 in Q1 of 2023 to $666,949 in Q1 of 2024). Meanwhile, Ucluelet experienced a decrease in sales price (-11 percent, from $764,000 in Q1 of 2023, to $676,703 in Q1 of 2024). North Okanagan also saw a decline in price (-12 percent, from $835,193 in Q1 of 2023, down to $739,000 in Q1 of 2024).

According to RE/MAX brokers’ outlook for the remainder of the year, Western Canada’s cottage prices could see average prices rise between five and 10 percent, as demand continues to grow. Price is expected to increase by two percent in North Okanagan, five percent in Edmonton Lakes, Sylvan Lake and Central Alberta, 10 percent in Canmore and 10 percent in Ucluelet. On the flip side, Tofino is anticipating a 10-per-cent decrease in sales prices due to regional limitations on short-term rentals this year, which is prompting some recreational property owners to divest themselves of their properties or convert them into primary residences.

Compared to 2023 market conditions, Central Alberta, as well as Sylvan Lake and Canmore continue to favour sellers, while Edmonton Lakes is experiencing a more balanced market. Whistler, British Columbia is also gaining balance, with an eight-per-cent listings-to-sales ratio for single-family homes, compared to 30-per-cent listings-to-sales ratio for affordable condominiums. Tofino and Ucluelet on the other hand, have shifted from a balanced market to a buyer’s market.

Similar to 2023, retirees are driving recreational property sales (notably in Canmore, Edmonton Lakes and Central Alberta) followed by families (in Canmore, Central Alberta, Tofino and Ucluelet), couples (in Edmonton Lakes, Central Alberta, Tofino and Ucluelet) and investment buyers (in Canmore, Central Alberta, Tofino and Ucluelet). Favoured amenities among buyers in these regions include access to recreational activities (most notably in Canmore, Edmonton Lakes, Central Alberta, Whistler, Tofino and Ucluelet), followed by functional WiFi access (in Edmonton Lakes, Central Alberta, Whistler, Tofino and Ucluelet), proximity to water (in Edmonton Lakes and Central Alberta), close-knit communities (in Tofino and Ucluelet), and swimming pools (in Canmore and Whistler).

Four out of the 7 regions analyzed in Western Canada have recorded a sales increase in the first quarter of the year, including Whistler (+2.6 per cent, from 114 in Q1 of 2023 to 117 in Q1 of 2024); Tofino (+300 percent, from zero sales in Q1 of 2023 to three in Q1 of 2024); Edmonton Lakes (+27.8 percent, from 18 in Q1 of 2023 to 23 in Q1 of 2024**); and Canmore (+19.8 per cent, from 101 in Q1 of 2023 to 121 in Q1 of 2024). Meanwhile, sales in Ucluelet have held steady year-over-year (six in Q1 of 2023, and six in Q1 of 2024), while sales declined in North Okanagan (down seven percent, from 15 sales in Q1 2023 to 14 sales in Q1 2024), as well as in Sylvan Lake/Central Alberta as a direct result of inventory shortages (down eight percent, from 40 in Q1 of 2023 to 37 in Q1 of 2024).

Much in line with the Leger survey data, brokers in Western Canada, with the exception of Tofino, also reported that recreational property owners continue to hold onto their properties and aren’t offloading as a result of affordability. Sales decisions are more likely being driven by downsizing and aging out of the property.

**Edmonton Lakes sale price figures and number of sales figures are inclusive of data collected from residential and lakefront property transactions.

Market-By-Market Overview

WHISTLER, BC

Whistler’s residential property market is currently balanced across all property types, with activity being driven by a mix of families, couples (young, middle-aged), retirees, investment buyers, foreign buyers and out-of-province buyers.

The 2024 average residential sale price across all property types increased by 7.5 percent year-over-year (from $1,633,855 in Q1 2023 to $1,756,473 in Q1 2024). Average number of sales increased by 2.6 percent year-over-year (from 114 in 2023 Q1 to 117 in 2024 Q1).

For single-family homes (chalets), Whistler is currently deep in buyer’s market territory with an eight-per-cent listing-to-sales ratio, while in the lower price points (condominiums), Whistler is experiencing a seller’s market, with a 30-per-cent listings-to-sales ratio.

Buying & Selling in Whistler

Buyer demand is strong when it comes to residential properties. Pricing and number of sales have ticked up year-over-year; however, current interest rates are capping purchasing power, which is in turn causing different segments of the residential market to react differently.

Most buyers in Whistler are hailing from the Greater Vancouver Area and local to Whistler, with about six percent coming from elsewhere in Canada and eight percent coming from the US. The features and amenities most in demand among residential property buyers in Whistler are:

• Access to recreational activities (i.e. skiing, water sports)

• Good Wi-Fi access

• Swimming pool

Regulations are having an impact in the region. For example, new mandates from the provincial and federal governments concerning the number of dwellings on properties zoned for single-family homes are expected to have an influence on the value of vacant lots and single-family home properties in certain price points. Exactly how this will play out with the municipality specifically, remains to be seen. Changes are anticipated to take effect starting after June 30.

Advice for Buyers

• It’s advisable for buyers to determine with their real estate agent which features are the most important to them. This will help stay organized and ready to go when their desired property hits the market.

• For sellers, pricing their property correctly is paramount to achieving a sale in the Whistler market. A professional broker can walk them through the proper pricing methodology and a strategy which best suits their needs.

• One persisting trend from the pandemic seems to be the relatively low number of properties on the market at any given time. A strong desire to live, work and play in the beautiful area of Whistler, combined with a shortage of properties on the market, has kept the number of listings low.

TOFINO & UCLUELET, BC

Tofino & Ucluelet are experiencing a buyer’s market, due to new capital gains increases from the federal government and the short-term rental rules imposed by the BC Government. Tofino, although exempt as a resort municipality, has chosen to opt into the provincial legislation. Ucluelet, on the other hand, has continued to opt out.

Families, couples (including young and middle-aged) and investment buyers are driving the residential and recreational property sales. This trend is expected to continue.

In Tofino, there were no sales or listings inventory recorded in Q1 2023. But, in Q1 2024, the average recreational sale price was $1,001,116. The number of sales across all recreational properties in the region increased by 300 percent year-over-year (from 0 in Q1 2023 to 3 in Q1 2024).

In Ucluelet, the average cottage prices across all recreational properties decreased by eight percent year-over-year (from $764,000 in Q1 2023 to $676,703 in Q1 2024). The number of sales held steady year-over-year (6 in Q1 2023 and 6 in Q1 2024).

Average sale prices and transactions are expected to decline 10 percent in Tofino through the remainder in 2024. Meanwhile, Ucluelet will likely see both sales and prices rise by 10 percent.

Buying & Selling in Tofino & Ucluelet

Despite inventory increasing in the region, short-term rental rules are creating challenging conditions for investors and buyers seeking additional income through short-term stay rentals. This is expected to be further pressured by the federal’s government’s capital gain tax increase which will go into effect on June 25, with many owners looking to sell and close before that date. Some property owners have chosen to list their property, prompted by the federal government’s announcement of a capital gains tax increase.

Buyers are coming from the lower mainland and Vancouver Island. This has not changed since last year. The features and amenities most in demand among residential property buyers in 2024 are:

• Good Wi-Fi access

• Access to recreational activities

• Close-knit community

• Waterfront properties

Regulations such as short-term rentals are impacting the local residential markets. Tofino has opted into the new provincial legislation restricting short-term rentals. Tofino property owners with affected properties are likely to see a significant drop in value as income will be about 1/3 or less of what they were earning as short-term rentals. Ucluelet has managed to deal with short-term rentals issues by zoning and has chosen to opt out of the provinces short-term rental rules. Ucluelet is likely to see more buyers who would have otherwise considered Tofino.

Advice for Buyers

• Sellers need to keep in mind that with higher interest rates, the market is not what it was in 2020 and 2021. There are fewer sales and less competition.

• Buyers need to be mindful of the shifting landscape and to ensure they do a thorough job understanding what short-term rental restrictions apply.

EDMONTON LAKES, AB

Edmonton Lakes’ property market is currently balanced, with the spring season generally affording enough inventory for six months of sales. Couples, including young and middle-aged couples, and retirees, are driving property sales.

The 2024 average residential sale price across all residential property types, not including lakefronts (Zones 75,71 & 93) increased by 22.7 percent year-over-year, from $388,772 in Q1 2023 to $477,104 in Q1 2024. Meanwhile, the average price of lakefront properties (Zones 75,71 & 93) increased by 10.5 percent, from $639,750 in Q1 2023 to $715,300 in Q1 2024.

The number of sales increased by 27.8 percent year-over-year (from 18 in 2023 Q1 – of which 4 were lakefronts, to 23 in 2024 Q1 – of which 10 were lakefronts).

Prices are anticipated to increase by five percent by the end of the year – depending on the inventory on the market. Sales will likely remain balanced year-over-year, with a possible slight increase of up to three percent by end of 2024.

Buying & Selling in Edmonton Lakes

Edmonton Lakes is starting to see newer homes coming on the market that generate a higher value, which is contributing to the increase of the sales price values. Inventory is generally fairly stable with the major market season beginning in April of every year until around the end of October.

Most buyers are coming from both out-of-province (BC and Ontario), and locally, from Edmonton and Edmonton’s surrounding area, and Northern Alberta. This has not changed since last year.

The features and amenities most in demand among buyers in 2024 include:

• Waterfront properties

• Access to recreational activities (i.e. skiing, water sports)

• Good Wi-Fi access

Since the onset of COVID-19, buyers continue to want out of city centres while taking advantage of lower interest rates. They can enjoy the quality of life that the ‘lake life’ offers. It also helps that the Edmonton Lakes region is only an hour out of the city of Edmonton, making it easy to commute.

Advice for Buyers

Hire a local expert in the desired local target area. Local expertise helps ensure buyers get what they are looking for.

CANMORE & BANFF, AB

Canmore/Banff is experiencing a seller’s market, as it continues to struggle with lack of inventory and low buyer demand. Families, couples (including young and middle-aged couples), retirees and investment buyers are all driving residential property sales in the region. Albertans are also driving property sales in the region. This trend is expected to continue.

The 2024 average residential sale price across all residential property types increased by 8.1 per cent year-over-year, from $962,619 in Q1 2023 to $1,040,422 in Q1 2024. Sales across all residential property types increased by eight per cent year-over-year, from 101 in 2023 Q1 to 121 in 2024 Q1.

Average cottage prices in the region are likely to increase by 10 percent by the end of 2024, while sales is likely to increase by five percent.

Buying & Selling in Canmore & Banff

There continues to be strong buyer demand, mainly from Alberta and Ontario. In addition, there is international demand, though they can’t currently purchase. Lack of supply is putting upward pressure on pricing. Much like 2023, strong demand for properties which are eligible for nightly and weekly rental is also trending in the region.

Out-of-province buyers are coming from Ontario, and more-locally from Calgary and Edmonton. This has not changed since last year. The features and amenities most in demand among residential property buyers in 2024 are:

• Mountain views

• Swimming pool

• Access to recreational activities (i.e. skiing and hiking)

• Good Wi-Fi access

Advice for Buyers

• Be prepared to act quickly.

• Be prepared to compete for properties.

• Although this is a seller’s market, there is still a need to price correctly to successfully sell.

SYLVAN LAKE, AB

Central Alberta Lakes’ residential property market is currently a seller’s market, driven by strong demand and short supply. The Alberta economy is very strong, with population increases due to inter-provincial migration from Ontario and B.C. New construction isn’t keeping up with demand driving prices higher. Families, retirees and investment buyers (for Airbnb) are driving property sales. This trend is expected to continue, so long as Central Alberta’s economy stays strong.

The 2024 average recreational sale price across all recreational properties increased by 14.9 percent year-over-year, from $580,357 in Q1 2023 to $666,949 in Q1 2024. Sales decreased by 7.5 percent year-over-year, from 40 in Q1 2023 to 37 in Q1 2024.

Looking ahead, average prices are anticipated to increase by five percent by the end of 2024, while total sales will likely decline by by three percent.

Buying & Selling in Sylvan Lake

There are fewer recreational properties on the market with continued strong demand, although high interest rates are probably slowing sales somewhat. Average 91 days on market in the first quarter of 2024, compared to 78 days in the first quarter of 2023.

Most buyers are coming from both out-of-province (Ontario and B.C.), and locally, from Calgary and Edmonton. This has not changed since last year. The features and amenities most in demand among buyers in 2024 include:

• Large properties with more outdoor/green space

• Waterfront properties

• Access to recreational activities (i.e. skiing, water sports)

• Good Wi-Fi access

Since COVID-19, there is a strong Central Albertan economy with lots of money around which allows families to make discretionary spending decisions. Supply of lake property in Alberta is limited, driving prices higher when the economy is strong.

Advice for Buyers

There are still properties available at relatively affordable prices at the less popular lakes, including: Pine Lake, Buffalo Lake and Gull Lake. Although, they are all suffering from lower water levels due to the drought in Alberta.

Courtesy RE/MAX LLC

APRIL 2024 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

May 1, 2024

Price growth persists in Calgary as seller’s market prevails

Sales in April rose by seven per cent compared to last year, to 2,881 units. While the pace of growth did ease compared to earlier in the year, sales remain 37 per cent higher than long-term trends for the month. Much of the growth in sales has occurred for relatively more affordable, higher-density products. 

At the same time, there were 3,491 new listings in April, an 11 per cent gain over last year but only three per cent higher than long-term trends. The rise in new listings compared to sales prevented any further deterioration of the inventory situation. However, with 2,711 units in inventory, levels are 16 per cent below last year and half of what is traditionally seen in April.

“While supply levels are still declining, much of the decline has been driven by lower-priced homes," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Homes priced below $500,000 have reported a 29 per cent decline. Meanwhile, we are seeing supply growth in homes priced above $700,000. Persistently high-interest rates are driving demand toward more affordable products in the market and, at the same time, driving listing growth for higher-priced properties.”

With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 83 per cent and a months of supply of less than one month, conditions continue to favour the seller, driving further price gains in the market. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $603,700, a one per cent gain over last month and nearly 10 per cent higher than last year's levels. Price gains occurred across all property types and districts of the city. The strongest price growth occurred in the more affordable districts of the city. 

Detached

Detached home sales rose by one per cent in April compared to last year. Sales gains in the higher price ranges offset the steep decline for homes priced below $600,000, which is related to the lack of listings in the lower price ranges. While detached new listings did report a year-over-year gain of 10 per cent, detached homes priced below $600,000 saw new listings decline by 34 per cent.

 

Adjustments in sales and inventory levels caused the months of supply to fall further this month. The less than one-month supply reflects a market favouring the seller, driving further price growth. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $749,000, over one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than April 2023 levels. Year-over-year gains were the highest in the city's most affordable districts.

 

Semi-Detached

Sales activity continued to rise in April, contributing to the nearly 18 per cent year-to-date growth in sales. The growth in sales was partly due to gains in new listings. However, the growth in new listings did little to change the low inventory situation, as the months of supply remained below one month for the second month in a row.

 

The persistently tight market conditions have caused further price gains. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $668,400, nearly two per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a high of 23 per cent in the East district to a low of 10 per cent in the City Centre.

 

Row

Row home sales continued to improve in April, contributing to the 19 per cent year-to-date gain. At the same time, new listings have improved by 16 per cent so far this year. The gains in new listings did little to change the low inventory situation due to sales activity. This has kept the sales-to-new-listings ratio high at 93 per cent and the months of inventory below one month for the fourth consecutive month.

 

The persistently tight conditions, especially in the lower price ranges, are driving further price growth for row homes. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $458,100, two per cent higher than last month and 20 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Both monthly and year-over-year gains were the highest in the most affordable districts of the North East and East, where resale row homes are still priced below $400,000.

 

Apartment Condominium

Sales in April reached 822 units, contributing to year-to-date sales of 2,761 units, a 24 per cent gain. Apartment condominium sales have risen more than any other property type and now represent nearly 30 per cent of all resale activity. This, in part, has been possible due to the rise in new listings. April reported 1,050 new listings, helping support a monthly gain in inventory levels in line with seasonal expectations. However, inventory levels remain nearly 13 per cent lower than last year’s and are 35 per cent below long-term trends.

 

Like other property types, year-over-year supply declines are driven by the lower-priced segments of the market, which for apartment condominiums is units priced below $300,000. Overall, persistent sellers’ market conditions in the lower price ranges are driving further price growth. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $346,200 a month, a gain of over two per cent and nearly 18 per cent higher than last April. Year-over-year price growth ranged from over 30 per cent in the North East and East districts to a low of 13 per cent in the City Centre.

 

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Supply continues to be a challenge in the Airdrie market. April reported 219 new listings and 202 sales, keeping the sales-to-new listings ratio elevated at 92 per cent. This prevented any significant change in the lower inventory environment, and the months of supply remained below one month.

 

Persistently tight market conditions have driven further price gains. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price rose by nearly two per cent compared to last month and over 10 per cent compared to last year, reaching $549,100. Detached homes account for the majority of sales, and prices reached $649,900 in April, nearly 12 per cent higher than last year.

 

Cochrane

Sales in April eased compared to last year. However, this was not enough to offset the gains that occurred earlier in the year, as year-to-date sales improved by seven per cent. Some of the monthly pullback in April can be related to a drop in the number of new home sales occurring in the resale market.

 

Meanwhile, new listings improved relative to sales, supporting a modest gain in inventory levels. This also helped push the months of supply up to nearly two months. Despite the shift, conditions remain relatively tight, causing further price gains. Prices rose across all property types. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $561,000, one per cent higher than last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than April 2023.

 

Okotoks

Both sales and new listings improved in April compared to last year, but with 89 new listings and 65 sales, inventory levels rose compared to last month and last year. However, inventory levels in the town remain 60 per cent below what is typically on the market at this time of year.

 

With one month of supply, the market continues to favour the seller and is driving further price growth. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $617,200, one per cent higher than last month and nearly eight per cent higher than last year. Prices improved across all property types, with the highest gains occurring for semi-detached and row homes.

 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The Canadian housing market showed little change in March 2024, with home sales and prices remaining mostly flat. Sales activity recorded through Canadian MLS systems edged up by 0.5 percent month-over-month but remained below the average of the last 10 years. 

The national composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) also remained mostly unchanged, dipping by 0.3 percent month-over-month. The report suggests that while there are expectations of a market pick-up this year, the current situation could be influenced by high interest rates and the anticipation of rate cuts.

Canadian consumers are tapped out but buyer’s market potentially on horizon

We’d say it’s more likely this flat market behaviour indicates that the Canadian consumer is tapped out, and with housing at record unaffordability, it’s unlikely we’ll see much growth until affordability returns to the market.

Affordability is a function of price, interest rates and income. According to Bloomberg, to reach pre-COVID affordability in Canada, prices would need to come down 33 percent, incomes would need to rise 55 percent or interest rates would need to fall 350 basis points. 

It’s likely that some combination of these three factors will eventually create a recovery in the Canadian real estate market. 

The data suggests buyers might respond positively to the increase in new properties for sale, which would reduce some excess demand and potentially create a buyer’s market, allowing for negative price discovery to take place. The full impact will be clearer with the release of April’s data.

Transactions

The unadjusted transaction count for March 2023 exhibited a 1.7 percent increase compared to the previous month. This growth was relatively modest when juxtaposed with the preceding two months’ performances. Apparently, the Easter weekend’s sluggish market conditions can be blamed for this subdued growth.

However, when looking at the inability of monthly home sales to return to their 10-year average, it tells us that unaffordability and economic factors are clearly preventing Canadians from buying homes the way they have in the past:

Price

Price activity seemed comparably underwhelming, with prices moving sideways (slightly downward) during the spring market of February and March — two months they almost always move up:

The biggest increases in price were observed in the following locations.

1. Greater Moncton: +5 percent

2. Estrie, Quebec: +3.5 percent

3. Prince Edward Island: +2.7 percent

4. Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario: +2 percent

5. Chilliwack, British Columbia: +1.9 percent

The biggest decreases in price were observed in these locations.

1. Simcoe & District, Ont.: -2.3 percent

2. Mauricie, Que.: -3 percent

3. Halifax: -1.7 percent 

4. B.C.’s Interior region: -1.6 percent

5. Owen Sound, Ont.: -1.2 percent

 

CREA’s 2024 forecast

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released its quarterly forecast, which indicates a return to the 10-year average sales volume growth trajectory by 2025.

CREA expects interest rates to remain a key factor influencing Canadian housing markets through 2024 and 2025. The market has been noticeably quiet since the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes in 2023, with prices in many markets still well below their historic peaks seen in 2021 and 2022.

Source: CREA

Expectations suggest the first rate cut in 2024 may occur in the second half of the year, with financial markets predicting around 50 basis points of cuts by the end of 2024. Most economists seem to believe that Canada won’t cut until the United States Federal Reserve cuts, which we may not see this year if it doesn’t happen at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. 

CREA’s statistics show a bounce in new supply, sales and listings, suggesting the market may be gearing up for a recovery. Around 492,083 residential properties are projected to trade in 2024, a 10.5 percent increase from 2023. The national average home price is forecast to increase by 4.9 percent to $710,468 in 2024.

In 2025, national home sales are expected to climb by 7.8 percent to 530,494 units, while the national average home price is projected to rise by 7 percent to $760,120.

Increases in volume

CREA’s 2024 forecast shows the biggest increase in number of homes sold to take place in:

• Alberta, by 13.6 percent

• Nova Scotia, by 12.7 percent

• Ontario, by 12.6 percent 

• Quebec, by 11 percent

Source: CREA

Increases in price

CREA’s 2024 forecast expects the biggest increase in home prices to be seen in:

• Alberta, by 7 percent to $479,765

• British Columbia, by 6.9 percent to $1,037,382

• Nova Scotia, by 6.7 percent to $451,114

• Quebec, by 5.9 percent to $515,877

Source: CREA

Courtesy REM Magazine, CREA

A public hearing on a proposed bylaw that could change the urban landscape of Calgary starts on Monday when citizens head to council chambers to voice their opinions about a possible citywide zoning change.

The rezoning proposal is a key part of the city's housing strategy, something the city says is an important measure to address housing supply and affordability.

If passed, the bylaw would allow for different housing types, such as six-plexes and townhomes, to be built in neighbourhoods that currently only allow single-family homes.

It's been a hotly debated topic that included an attempt at a plebiscite, separate community meetings with city councillors, a highly-criticized citizen engagement plan and a letter opposing the proposal signed by more than 40 Calgary community association presidents.

In an interview on CBC Calgary's This is Calgary podcast, host Anis Heydari spoke with Chris Welner, the Glendale community association president, about why he thinks rezoning is not the right path.

He was one of those who signed the letter.

City council is about to decide if it wants to make it simpler to knock down a bungalow and build a row house. This could help ease the affordability crunch, and could lead to neighbourhoods that don't look like they were intended to. With emotion on all sides, we hear from a community opposed, and why the city says it's time to get cozy with this blanket.

"I think blanket zoning is really a blunt sledgehammer," said Welner.

"We 100 percent support density development, but it's got to be done properly. It can't just be 'open up the doors to a developer who wants to build on anywhere they want, under any circumstances.'"

According to the City of Calgary, rezoning happens when a property owner wants to develop something other than what's currently allowed under existing zoning. 

"Council makes the final decision on whether to approve or refuse a rezoning application after a public hearing," the city said on its website.

If the rezoning is approved by council, the applicant can submit a development permit application. Depending on the location of the property, development and building permits might still be required — and building permits are always required for new homes.

Speaking on This is Calgary, Josh White, Calgary's director of city and regional planning, said the citywide rezoning proposal is a necessary step toward solving the ongoing housing problems the city faces.

As it stands, White said, around two-thirds of the city's land base is only zoned for single-detached homes and no change can happen. If you want to replace a single-detached home, you'd only be able to do build another house of the same type.

"We've seen rapid rise in rent and price across the city," White said.

"What that [rezoning] does is allow more diversity of housing, so, different varieties of housing to boost our housing supply and provide housing that's more within the reach of more Calgarians."

The proposed citywide rezoning is one of a number of strategies that the city is pursuing. 

While the proposal may be a solution for one problem, Welner worries that in solving this issue, others will come up.

"Calgary is a great city to live in, it's truly a great place. Are there issues, are there problems, absolutely," he said.

"But blanket zoning is going to open up an amazing wealth transfer to developers who have the wherewithal to come in, buy up the house that's probably a little bit run down that's next to you and put up anything."

The citywide rezoning public hearing starts Monday with a decision on the bylaw to come in the following weeks.

Courtesy CBC News

A public hearing on a proposed bylaw that could change the urban landscape of Calgary starts on Monday when citizens head to council chambers to voice their opinions about a possible citywide zoning change.

The rezoning proposal is a key part of the city's housing strategy, something the city says is an important measure to address housing supply and affordability.

If passed, the bylaw would allow for different housing types, such as six-plexes and townhomes, to be built in neighbourhoods that currently only allow single-family homes.

It's been a hotly debated topic that included an attempt at a plebiscite, separate community meetings with city councillors, a highly-criticized citizen engagement plan and a letter opposing the proposal signed by more than 40 Calgary community association presidents.

In an interview on CBC Calgary's This is Calgary podcast, host Anis Heydari spoke with Chris Welner, the Glendale community association president, about why he thinks rezoning is not the right path.

He was one of those who signed the letter.

LISTEN | Glendale Community Association President Chris Welner says "a more surgical approach" would be a better approach to tackle Calgary's housing crisis:

"I think blanket zoning is really a blunt sledgehammer," said Welner.

"We 100 per cent support density development, but it's got to be done properly. It can't just be 'open up the doors to a developer who wants to build on anywhere they want, under any circumstances.'"

According to the City of Calgary, rezoning happens when a property owner wants to develop something other than what's currently allowed under existing zoning. 

"Council makes the final decision on whether to approve or refuse a rezoning application after a public hearing," the city said on its website.

If the rezoning is approved by council, the applicant can submit a development permit application. Depending on the location of the property, development and building permits might still be required — and building permits are always required for new homes.

Speaking on This is Calgary, Josh White, Calgary's director of city and regional planning, said the citywide rezoning proposal is a necessary step toward solving the ongoing housing problems the city faces.

As it stands, White said, around two-thirds of the city's land base is only zoned for single-detached homes and no change can happen. If you want to replace a single-detached home, you'd only be able to do build another house of the same type.

"We've seen rapid rise in rent and price across the city," White said.

"What that [rezoning] does is allow more diversity of housing, so, different varieties of housing to boost our housing supply and provide housing that's more within the reach of more Calgarians."

The proposed citywide rezoning is one of a number of strategies that the city is pursuing. 

While the proposal may be a solution for one problem, Welner worries that in solving this issue, others will come up.

"Calgary is a great city to live in, it's truly a great place. Are there issues, are there problems, absolutely," he said.

"But blanket zoning is going to open up an amazing wealth transfer to developers who have the wherewithal to come in, buy up the house that's probably a little bit run down that's next to you and put up anything."

The citywide rezoning public hearing starts Monday with a decision on the bylaw to come the following weeks.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

The Bank expects the global economy to continue growing at a rate of about 3%, with inflation in most advanced economies easing gradually. The US economy has again proven stronger than anticipated, buoyed by resilient consumption and robust business and government spending. US GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half of this year, but remain stronger than forecast in January. The euro area is projected to gradually recover from current weak growth. Global oil prices have moved up, averaging about $5 higher than assumed in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Since January, bond yields have increased but, with narrower corporate credit spreads and sharply higher equity markets, overall financial conditions have eased.

The Bank has revised up its forecast for global GDP growth to 2¾% in 2024 and about 3% in 2025 and 2026. Inflation continues to slow across most advanced economies, although progress will likely be bumpy. Inflation rates are projected to reach central bank targets in 2025.

In Canada, economic growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply. A broad range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions continue to ease. Employment has been growing more slowly than the working-age population and the unemployment rate has risen gradually, reaching 6.1% in March. There are some recent signs that wage pressures are moderating.

Economic growth is forecast to pick up in 2024. This largely reflects both strong population growth and a recovery in spending by households. Residential investment is strengthening, responding to continued robust demand for housing. The contribution to growth from spending by governments has also increased. Business investment is projected to recover gradually after considerable weakness in the second half of last year. The Bank expects exports to continue to grow solidly through 2024.

Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026.

CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs. Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3½%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2½% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.

Based on the outlook, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months. The Council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained. Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 5, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on July 24, 2024.

Courtesy Bank of Canada

The RE/MAX International conference took place last week in Las Vegas, the Viani Real Estate Group was honoured to be recognized among some of the top-producing REALTORS® in the entire RE/MAX network. 
 
The Viani Real Estate Group was recognized as a Diamond Team for 2023

This distinction was only achieved by four teams at RE/MAX Real Estate (Central), in addition, the Viani Real Estate Group ranked as the 54th top-producing team in all of RE/MAX Western Canada an area which spans from Manitoba to British Columbia.

The Viani Real Estate Group helped over 140 friends, families, businesses and investors achieve their real estate goals in 2023. Through the diverse skill set of our group, we were able to assist clients with their residential, commercial and rural needs. 

In addition, RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) was recognized as the #1 RE/MAX office worldwide for the 26th year, the Viani Real Estate Group congratulates RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) and is proud to be associated with such an outstanding office.

Individually the group members were recognized with the following RE/MAX awards;
- Alison Lang | Platinum Club
- Nga Jenna Nguyen | 100% Club
- Tom Armstrong | 100% Club
- Greg Keogh | Executive Club

Thank you to all of our clients, those who referred clients to us and to our families for their continued support, without each of you we could not achieve such success.

Contact us today to put our award-winning service to work for you.

Best Wishes
www.vianigroup.com
Viani | Lang | Nguyen | Armstrong | Keogh

MARCH 2024 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

April 1, 2024

March reflects strong seller's market and price increases

March sales rose to 2,664 units, a 10 per cent year-over-year gain and much higher than long-term trends. While new listings did pick up over last month, the 3,172 units were still below what we typically see in March and not enough relative to sales to drive any change in the supply situation. In March, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, and the months of supply fell below one month. 

“We have not seen March conditions this tight since 2006, which is also the last time we reported high levels of interprovincial migration and a months-of-supply below one month," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Moreover, we are entering the third consecutive year of a market favouring the seller as the two-year spike in migration has driven up demand and contributed to the drop in re-sale and rental supply. Given supply adjustments take time, it is not a surprise that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices.” 

Inventory levels have declined across properties priced below $1,000,000, with the steepest declines occurring for homes priced below $500,000. In March, there were 2,532 units in inventory, 22 per cent lower than last year and half the levels we traditionally see in March.

In March, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price rose to $597,600, a two per cent gain over last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than last year. Prices have increased across all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for the relatively more affordable row and apartment-style homes.   

Detached

Detached home sales rose in March but were likely limited by the level of new listings coming onto the market. New listings in March were 1,386 units, compared to the 1,151 sales, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to rise to 83 per cent. Inventories also remained relatively stable compared to last month but were 24 per cent lower than last year’s levels and nearly 60 per cent lower than long-term trends for March. Inventory levels dropped across all price ranges, but the most significant fall was in the lower price point. Overall, 71 per cent of the available inventory in March was priced above $700,000.

 

Low inventories compared to sales caused the months of supply to drop below one month, driving further price gains. The unadjusted detached benchmark price rose to $739,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and a year-over-year gain of 14 per cent. The largest year-over-year gains occurred in the most affordable North East and East districts.

 

Semi-Detached

Supply availability continues to weigh on the semi-detached sector of the market. In March, 260 new listings were met with 250 sales, causing the sale-to-new listings ratio to rise to 96 per cent. This prevented inventories from improving, and the months of supply dropped below one month. Inventory declines have been driven mainly by properties priced below $600,000.

 

Limited supply and growing demand drove further price gains in March. The unadjusted benchmark price reached $658,000, nearly three per cent higher than last month and a 14 per cent gain over last March. Prices rose across all districts in the city, with year-over-year gains ranging from a low of 11 per cent in the highest-priced area of the City Centre to 25 per cent in the lowest-priced market in the East district.

 

Row

Both sales and new listings rose in March. However, with 536 new listings and 449 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, preventing any significant monthly change in inventory levels. With 355 units available, inventory levels were 12 per cent below last year’s and 53 per cent below long-term trends for March. The decline in inventory levels was driven by properties priced below $400,000, as inventory levels rose 35 per cent for units priced above $400,000.

 

The unadjusted benchmark price trended up in March, reaching $448,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and over 20 per cent higher than levels reported at this time last year. The higher-priced City Centre reported the slowest growth in benchmark prices, with the highest growth reported in the city's most affordable districts.

 

Apartment Condominium

Sales in March reached 814 units, contributing to the first quarter’s record-high sales of 1,940 units, nearly 31 per cent higher than last year. New listings also improved throughout the first three months of the year, but with a March sales-to-new-listings ratio of 82 per cent and a months-of-supply of one month, conditions favoured apartment condominium sellers.

 

Demand for lower-priced homes has supported the growth of apartment-style properties, but the tight conditions have also contributed to further price gains. In March, the benchmark prices reached $337,700, over two per cent higher than last month and 17 per cent higher than levels reported last March.

 REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

March reported 203 sales and 218 new listings. While both new listings and sales improved, with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 93 per cent, inventory levels were 22 per cent below last year and 56 per cent below typical March levels.

 

With less than one month of supply, it is not surprising that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In March, the benchmark price reached $540,400, a monthly gain of two per cent and a year-over-year increase of over nine per cent. Prices improved across all property types, with stronger year-over-year gains for the relatively lower-priced row and apartment-style products.

 

Cochrane

Following a slower start to the year, sales in March rose to nearly the same level of new listings coming onto the market, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio up to 99 per cent. This also contributed to further declines in inventory levels, and the months of supply dropped to just over one month.

 

As of March, the total residential benchmark price reached $555,300, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nearly 12 per cent. Prices rose across all property types, and detached prices pushed above $650,000 for the first time.

 

Okotoks

Okotoks continues to struggle with supply as the 71 new listings that came on the market this month were met with 65 sales, preventing any improvement in inventory levels. There were only 54 units available in March, a year-over-year decline of 10 per cent and nearly 70 per cent below long-term trends for the month.

 

Limited supply and strong sales caused the months of supply to fall below one month, and March was the lowest March reported since 2006. Persistently tight conditions drove further price growth this month, as the total residential benchmark price rose to $610,700, a monthly gain of one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nine per cent. Prices have been rising for all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for semi-detached and row properties. 

 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Anyone expecting smooth sailing ahead for the housing market got a reality check in February. Month-to-month drops in home resales in several of Canada’s major markets were a reminder that very challenging affordability conditions still heavily constrain many buyers—despite emerging signs of a market turnaround in the previous two months. Reports from local real estate boards showed February’s backsteps partly reversed advances made at seasonal low points in December and January.

Some of these reports also revealed a rise in sellers entering the market. This was the case in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Edmonton, Hamilton and Montreal, where we estimate new listings increased between 3% and 14% from January. We suspect sellers who took a pass in the fall may have taken an early jump on the upcoming spring market, warmed by news of busier activity in December and January. Demand-supply conditions generally eased across the country last month though remained balanced in most of Canada, with several Prairies markets still strongly favouring sellers.

And yet, home prices picked up (slightly) in all major markets—perhaps marking a turning point. The MLS Home Price Index in Toronto, for instance, rose month over month for the first time in seven months. The earlier tightening in demand-supply conditions in December and January no doubt gave sellers more sway in setting prices. We think a vigorous, sustained recovery won’t take shape until interest rates fall more meaningfully—something we peg for the second half of 2024.

Calgary — Still solid despite some volatility

The Calgary market is easily the busiest—and hottest—in the country but its pace slowed down in February. We estimate home resales fell 8% m/m, reversing the prior two months’ gains. We don’t think the development signals anything other than normal month-to-month volatility. Resales still stand more than 60% above pre-pandemic levels. Housing demand remains exceptionally strong in the area, fueled by tremendous population growth. The sharp loss of affordability during the pandemic no doubt pinches many potential buyers though with demand-supply conditions so tight, many more are clearly in the game. Calgary prices are up the most over the past year among the markets we track. The rise in the MLS HPI clocked in 10.3% y/y February, little changed from the prior three months. We expect this stable trend to persist in the near term.

Courtesy RBC

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter. US GDP growth also slowed but remained surprisingly robust and broad-based, with solid contributions from consumption and exports. Euro area economic growth was flat at the end of the year after contracting in the third quarter. Inflation in the United States and the euro area continued to ease. Bond yields have increased since January while corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Equity markets have risen sharply. Global oil prices are slightly higher than what was assumed in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In Canada, the economy grew in the fourth quarter by more than expected, although the pace remained weak and below potential. Real GDP expanded by 1% after contracting 0.5% in the third quarter. Consumption was up a modest 1%, and final domestic demand contracted with a large decline in business investment. A strong increase in exports boosted growth. Employment continues to grow more slowly than the population, and there are now some signs that wage pressures may be easing. Overall, the data point to an economy in modest excess supply.

CPI inflation eased to 2.9% in January, as goods price inflation moderated further. Shelter price inflation remains elevated and is the biggest contributor to inflation. Underlying inflationary pressures persist: year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are in the 3% to 3.5% range, and the share of CPI components growing above 3% declined but is still above the historical average. The Bank continues to expect inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing.

Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. The Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation. Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 10, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

Courtesy of the Bank of Canada

FEBRUARY 2024 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

March 1, 2024

Low inventory and high demand drive price gains in February

New listings continued to rise in February, reaching 2,711 units. However, the rise in new listings supported further growth in sales, which increased by nearly 23 per cent compared to last year for a total of 2,135 units. The shift in sales and new listings kept the sales-to-new listings ratio exceptionally high at 79 per cent, ensuring inventories remained near historic lows. Low supply and higher sales caused the months of supply to fall to just over one month, nearly as tight as levels seen during the spring of last year.

 

“Purchasers are acting quickly when new supply comes onto the market, preventing inventory growth in the market," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “It is this strong demand and low supply that continues to drive price gains in Calgary. The biggest supply challenge is for homes priced under $500,000, which saw inventories fall by 31 per cent compared to last February. At the same time, we are starting to see supply levels rise for higher priced homes supporting more balanced conditions in the upper end.”

 

In February, the unadjusted detached benchmark price was $585,000, an over two per cent gain compared to last month and over 10 per cent higher than levels reported at this time last year. Our most affordable East district is experiencing the highest year-over-year price growth at 25 per cent, while the relatively better-supplied City Centre has reported the slowest price growth in the city at under five per cent.

Detached

In February, 1,195 new listings came onto the market, of which 75 per cent were priced over $600,000. While new listings did improve over last month in line with seasonal expectations, levels are still below typical levels for February. At the same time, sales in February rose to 954 units, a year-over-year gain of 20 per cent. The growth in sales was driven by where we saw listings growth, but with a sales-to-new listings ratio of nearly 80 per cent, inventory levels were near record lows for February.

 

Exceptionally tight market conditions drove further price growth. In February, the unadjusted detached benchmark price rose to $721,300, nearly three per cent higher than last month and over 13 per cent higher than last February. While prices rose across every district, the most significant year-over-year gains occurred in the North East and East districts.

 

Semi-Detached

Last month’s rise in listings compared to sales was short-lived, as the 223 new listings this month were met with 191 sales, driving up the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 86 per cent. This prevented any significant change to the low inventory situation and caused the months of supply to fall to just over one month.

 

In February, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $639,100, a monthly gain of over two per cent and 13 per cent higher than last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a low of 10 per cent in the City Centre to over 26 per cent in the East district.

 

Row

New listings rose to 457 units in February, contributing to the year-to-date increase in new listings of 22 per cent. The rise in new listings supported sales growth, preventing any significant change to the low inventory situation. For the second consecutive month, the months of supply were below one month.

 

The exceptionally tight market conditions have contributed to strong price growth for row properties. In February, the unadjusted detached price reached $436,500, over 2 per cent higher than last month and nearly 19 per cent higher than levels reported last February. Prices rose across all districts, with the highest growth occurring in the most affordable districts.

 

Apartment Condominium

Sales in February reached 638 units, contributing to the year-to-date sales increase of 39 per cent. Relative affordability has supported the strong demand for apartment-style homes, and sales growth has been possible thanks to the continued growth in new listings. Inventory levels trended up over the last month in line with seasonal expectations. However, inventory levels declined by 12 per cent compared to last year, ensuring the market continued to favour the seller with just over one month of supply.

 

Persistently tight conditions continued to place upward pressure on home prices. Prices have steadily increased since January of last year, and as of February, they reached $329,600, a 17 per cent gain over last February. Prices rose across every district in the city, with year-over-year gains surpassing 19 per cent in all districts except the City Centre, which reported a year-over-year gain of 13 per cent.

 

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

New listings in Airdrie improved in February. However, with 182 new listings and 135 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained high, and inventory levels eased over last year's low levels. Inventory levels are half what we typically see in February and have not been this low since 2006.

 

The rise in sales compared to inventory levels caused the months of supply to drop to just over one month. Airdrie has struggled with limited supply over the past several years, driving home prices. In February, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $529,700, over one percent higher than last month and 10 per cent higher than the $479,700 price reported last February.

 

Cochrane

New listings rose to 105 units in February, the highest monthly total seen since July last year and contributing to the year-to-date gain of 22 per cent. At the same time, February sales improved over last year, with 65 sales.

 

With a sales-to-new listings ratio of 62 per cent, we did see some growth in inventory levels compared to last year. However, inventories remain well below what is typical for this market. Nonetheless, the months of supply remained relatively low for this market at two months, supporting further price growth in the town. As of February, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $548,300, an improvement over last month and over 11 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

Okotoks

For the second month in a row, new listings improved in Okotoks compared to last year. However, as sales also improved over the past two months, inventory levels in February remained stable compared to last month and only slightly higher than last year’s levels.  Inventory levels are near record lows for the month and are 63 per cent below long-term trends.

 

Okotoks has struggled to add enough supply to keep pace with demand, keeping conditions tight and driving home prices. As of February, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $605,500, nearly three per cent higher than last month and a 10 per cent gain over last year at this time.

 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

JANUARY 2024 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

February 1, 2024

January sees strong sales fueled by boost in new listings

January sales rose to 1,650 units, a significant gain over last year's levels and long-term trends. The growth was possible thanks to a rise in new listings totalling 2,137 units in January. New listings rose for homes priced above $300,000, but the largest gains occurred for homes priced above $700,000.

The rise in new listings relative to sales did little to change the low inventory situation in the city.  With 2,150 units in inventory, levels are near the January record lows set in 2006 and are nearly 49 per cent below the long-term average for the month.

"Supply challenges have been a persistent problem since last year. This month's gain in new listings has helped provide options to potential purchasers, supporting sales growth. However, the growth in sales prevented any significant adjustments in supply, keeping conditions tight and supporting further price growth," stated Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. 

The months of supply in January was 1.3 months, falling over last month's and last year's levels. The persistent tightness in the market contributed to further upward pressure on home prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in January reached $572,300, a gain over last month and ten per cent higher than levels reported last January.

Detached

A boost in new listings helped support stronger sales this month. However, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 77 per cent, there was minimal change in the low inventory situation reported in the detached sector. New listings rose for all homes priced above $500,000, but the largest gains occurred in the over $700,000 market segment. Low inventory levels compared to sales prevented any improvement in the months of supply, which at 1.4 months was lower than levels reported last month and last January. 

The exceptionally tight market conditions continued to drive further price growth. In January, the unadjusted detached price reached $702,200, nearly one per cent higher than last month and nearly 13 per cent higher than prices reported last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a low of 10 per cent in the City Centre and South East districts to a 27 per cent gain in the East district of the city.

 

Semi-Detached

With 223 new listings and 131 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 59 per cent, the lowest level reported since 2020 and significantly improved over the 82 per cent average reported in 2023. The sudden shift did cause inventories to improve over the last month, but they remain well below long-term trends.

The unadjusted benchmark price in January was $625,000, slightly lower than last month but over 11 per cent higher than last January. The monthly decline was driven mainly by adjustments in the higher-priced districts of the West and City Centre.

 

Row

Like other property types, new listings and sales rose in January over levels reported last month and last year. However, with 322 new listings and 297 sales, the sales to new listings ratio remained exceptionally high at 92 per cent. This contributed to further reductions in inventory levels, and the months of supply once again fell below one month.

Limited supply and strong demand contributed to a rise in prices. In January, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $426,400, up over last month and nearly 20 per cent higher than levels reported in January 2023. While year-over-year prices are higher in every district, the West and City Centre districts saw unadjusted benchmark prices ease slightly over December.

 

Apartment Condominium

Apartment-style properties continued to see the most significant gain in sales activity, rising to 488 sales in January, a year-over-year increase of 54 per cent. This was possible thanks to the growth in new listings. However, the gain in listings did little to supply levels; with 682 units, inventories were 40 per cent below long-term trends.

Tight market conditions continued to contribute to further price gains. In January, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $324,000, nearly one per cent higher than last month and 19 per cent higher than last January. Prices rose across all districts, with the largest year-over-year gains occurring in the most affordable districts of the North East and East. 

 

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Stronger detached and row sales were enough to offset pullbacks in the semi-detached and apartment sectors, causing total residential sales to increase over levels reported last January. This, in part, was possible thanks to a boost in new listings. However, the boost in new listings and sales prevented any significant shift in inventory levels, which was half of the levels typically seen in the market. 

While conditions remained tight, the unadjusted benchmark price remained stable over the last month but was nearly 10 per cent higher than levels reported in January 2023. The most substantial price gains have occurred for apartment-style homes, which are the most affordable property type. 

 

Cochrane

Eighty-three new listings and 70 sales occurred in January, keeping the sales to new listings relatively high at 84 per cent. This prevented any significant change in inventory levels compared to last month but caused the months of supply to fall below two months once again. The drop in the months of supply is a shift over the last four months, where the months of supply was over two months. 

Despite recent tightening, the unadjusted benchmark price did ease slightly over last month’s levels. Overall, the unadjusted benchmark prices across all property types remained over 10 per cent higher than last January.

Okotoks

Both sales and new listings rose in January compared to last month's and last year’s levels. This caused the sales to new listings ratio to fall to 75 per cent, which was still relatively high but an improvement over the 86 per cent average reported last year. Nonetheless, the sudden gain in new listings was insufficient to cause material changes to the low inventory levels.

With just over one month of supply, conditions remain tight in Okotoks, driving prices up. In January, the benchmark price reached $589,600, higher than last month's and year’s levels. Year-over-year price growth occurred across all property types, with gains ranging from a high of 15 per cent for row properties to a low of six per cent for apartment-style homes.

 

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