The Bank of Canada has raised its key interest by another 50 basis points onApril13,2022, bringing it up to one percent. This is the second in an expected series of rate hikes slated for 2022, and the biggest single increase since 2000.

The move follows a 0.25-per-cent increase at the Bank’s last interest rate announcement on March 2, which was the first upward move since October 2018, following a trio of decreases in March 2020, to help ease the economic fallout of COVID-19. This new upward trend is intended to rein in the rapid rise of inflation, which hit a 30-year high of 5.1 percent in January, well above the Bank’s projection of two percent.

The Bank cited the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia as a continuing source of major uncertainty, with spikes in the price of oil, natural gas and other commodities adding to inflation, and exacerbating ongoing supply chain disruptions.

In Canada, the Bank says the economy is chugging on all cylinders, with tight labour markets and wage growth back to pre-pandemic levels. Consumer spending is up as pandemic restrictions continue to ease, and businesses report difficulties meeting demand due to supply chain issues. The housing market is “exceptionally high” but the Bank expects it to moderate.

The Bank of Canada announces its decision on the overnight rate target eight times a year, typically on a Wednesday. The schedule for 2022 is as follows:

• Wednesday, January 26*

• Wednesday, March 2

• Wednesday, April 13*

• Wednesday, June 1

• Wednesday, July 13*

• Wednesday, September 7

• Wednesday, October 26*

• Wednesday, December 7

*Monetary Policy Report published

Price growth expected in all small markets analyzed, with average increases ranging from 3% to 20% in some areas

• Quality of life factors, or “liveability,” are drawing many Canadian homebuyers to small markets (40 percent); followed by housing affordability (37 percent)

• More than a quarter of people living in larger markets (28 percent) would like to move to a smaller market in the next two years

• A quarter of Canadians (25 percent), have received family support to purchase their first or current home; this number is consistent in large and small markets

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC – April 13, 2022 – A new report from RE/MAX Canada finds that “small” Canadian real estate markets are attracting new residents and homebuyers primarily for the liveability factors that they offer, such as green spaces and neighbourhood dynamism, to name a few*, ahead of affordability by a slim margin. The 2022 Small Markets Report analyzed home sales and price trends in the fastest-growing small Canadian housing markets, which are defined as those with the highest population growth rates in 2021, and having a population of less than 440,000, with secondary markets below 100,000**.

Residential prices in these communities have continued to rise as a result of low inventory and growing demand. RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents anticipate residential price growth across all small markets analyzed in the report, with expected price increases ranging from three percent up to 20 percent in some regions through the remainder of 2022. Unsurprisingly, some of these markets have already experienced significant year-over-year price appreciation in the range of 17 to 46 percent.

2022 Canadian Small Real Estate Markets Report

Activity in these communities has been fuelled in part by the financial support that many Canadians have received from family, with 25 percent of Canadians using financial support from family in order to purchase a home, according to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada. RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents in 83 percent of regions surveyed have also witnessed this trend locally, specifically among first-time homebuyers.

“Liveability is all about quality of life, and as we all work toward getting back to enjoying the things we love the most about our communities, it’s not surprising that it ranks so highly in importance for Canadians – especially now,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Despite the fact that the national housing market still has challenges to overcome, smaller communities are viable options for Canadian homebuyers looking for the right balance between liveability and affordability. The increase anticipated for home prices for the remainder of 2022 by our network of brokers and agents is a good indicator of the appeal of these communities.”

However, the desire for liveable communities plays both ways, with 57 percent of residents in small Canadian real estate markets voicing concern that the distinct liveability qualities of their town ─ its charm ─ may be eroded as a result of rising demand from move-over buyers. Another 43 percent share the same anxiety about rising prices, feeling that they could potentially be priced out of their community if the trend persists.

According to the Leger survey, during the pandemic, 23 percent of respondents moved from a larger Canadian housing market to a smaller one, and 85 percent are happy about their move; while 52 percent of Canadians that moved to a small town believe their mental health has improved after moving.

“We’ve seen a greater influx of buyers moving to smaller markets over the past two years, a trend that’s prompted some concern among existing residents. However, the diversity of new homebuyers can be a positive thing for local communities,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “The recent notable growth of these smaller Canadian real estate markets makes it an opportune time for municipal and provincial governments to focus on alleviating these concerns through measures that address affordability and housing supply, but also aim to revitalize and improve community liveability that has made these regions the preferred choice of many Canadians.”

This keen interest in small Canadian real estate markets doesn’t seem to be waning, as gathering and workplace pandemic restrictions continue to ease across the country, and more Canadians return to their office settings on a full-time or hybrid basis. According to the Leger survey, the ability to work from home has motivated 14 percent of Canadians to move to a smaller community. Furthermore, 11 percent of Canadians indicated that should their employer require them to return to work in-person, they would look for another job in order to stay in their small city/town/community.

Regional deep dive into small Canadian real estate markets

RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents were asked to provide an analysis of local market activity for the first quarter in 2022, and give their outlook for the remainder of the year.

ATLANTIC CANADA

RE/MAX Canada surveyed brokers in Moncton, NB, Charlottetown, PEI, Summerside, PEI, Truro, NS and Halifax, NS and found that these regions are all sitting is seller’s territory due to low inventory and insatiable buyer demand, which is expected to continue through the remainder of 2022. Average sale price increases are expected, rising +5.5 percent in Summerside; +12 percent in Charlottetown; +15 percent in Moncton; +19 percent in Halifax; and +20 percent in Truro.

Across Atlantic Canada, out-of-province buyers are driving sales activity due to relative affordability compared to large city centres in other provinces, with buyers most interested in detached homes that offer more living space and, in some cases, water-front properties. Between January and March of 2022, year-over-year average residential sale prices have increased 38 percent in Moncton (which saw its population grow by two percent); 26 percent in Halifax (2.1 percent population growth); 22 percent in Charlottetown, and 20 percent in Summerside (two percent population growth).

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Atlantic Canada anticipate their markets to continue to be sought after by out-of-province buyers, and in some cases new immigrants, as the pandemic has shifted what people want in a home. Specifically, there is a newfound appreciation for smaller communities across Atlantic Canada.

ONTARIO

All of the small markets surveyed in Ontario are seller’s markets with low inventory and high demand. According to RE/MAX brokers and agents, average residential sale prices are expected to increase in Stratford (+eight percent); Centre Wellington (+two percent); Grand Bend (+7.5 percent); Woodstock (+eight percent); Southern Georgian Bay Area (+nine percent); Oshawa (+15 percent); Arnprior (+15 percent); and Carleton Place (+15 percent).

Throughout the pandemic, local RE/MAX brokers have reported an influx of out-of-town buyers seeking affordable housing, larger living spaces and a close-knit community feel. Many of these regions, including Oshawa, Carleton Place, and Arnprior, already have the infrastructure and public transportation in place, offering residents an easy commute to work in the city.

The cities of Oshawa (2.3 percent population growth), Arnprior (2.3 percent population growth) and Carleton Place (3.8 percent population growth) in Ontario are each anticipated to see average sale prices increase by 15 percent through the remainder of 2022, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents. Carleton Place was recently named the fastest-growing community in Canada, which is also impacting its housing market. It currently has multiple new developments in the works, which will bring in more than 1,600 new homes to the area.

WESTERN CANADA

Much like the rest of the country, Western Canada’s small markets continue to favour sellers, including Kelowna, BC (2.6 percent population growth), Chilliwack, BC (2.3 percent population growth), Cranbrook, BC, Brooks, AB, Red Deer, AB and Brandon, MB. Many of these regions are welcoming buyers from other regions and provinces (primarily Ontario), with interest in single-detached homes that offer more indoor and outdoor living space. Over the past few months, these regions have seen stronger buyer confidence and less urgency to purchase a home. This has resulted in fewer bidding wars and signals that the market is beginning to settle; however, it is too early to predict indefinitely. According to RE/MAX brokers and agents, average residential sale prices are expected to increase in +3 percent in Chilliwack, BC, +five percent in Kelowna, BC, +10 percent in Cranbrook, BC, +four percent in Red Deer, AB, +10 percent in Brooks, AB, and +four percent in Brandon, MB.

TERRITORIES

This report also analyzed the region of Whitehorse in the Yukon (2.4 percent population growth), which is currently a seller’s market that is anticipated to continue for the remainder of 2022. Average price is expected to increase +three percent. In this region, condos and townhomes are seeing the most activity, both in terms of sales and new construction. However, supply cannot keep up with the demand, and is driving prices up. Whitehorse has been a hotspot for new immigrants in particular, with municipal programs in place to help them integrate into the community. The region is also seeing out-of-province buyers who are falling in love with the lifestyle of the North.

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About RE/MAX Canada’s 2022 Small Markets Report:

The 2022 RE/MAX Small Markets Report includes data and insights supplied by RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents were surveyed on activity and local developments in small Canadian real estate markets, based on local board data and activity in 2021 and 2022.

*Liveability as defined by the Leger survey respondents, was based on individual subjectiveness for what liveability meant to them. Liveability as defined by RE/MAX is the quality of life that make up your neighbourhood, such as green spaces, transportation, etc. to name a few.

**Small markets were defined as those having the highest population growth rates in 2021, according to Statistics Canada, and population under 440,000, with a secondary criterion in order to ensure a good sample of national markets of those with a population of 100,000 or less. 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The RE/MAX International conference took place last week in Las Vegas, the Viani Real Estate Group was honoured to be recognized amongst some of the top producing REALTORS® in the entire RE/MAX network.

The Viani Real Estate Group was recognized as a Diamond Team for 2021

The Viani Real Estate Group helped over 160 friends, families, businesses and investors achieve their real estate goals in 2021. Through the diverse skill set of our group, we were able to assist clients with their residential, commercial and rural needs. The commercial division of the Viani Real Estate Group was recognized as one of the top-producing real estate teams worldwide.

Thank you to all of our clients, those who referred clients to us and to our families for their continued support, without each of you we could not achieve such success.
Contact us today to achieve your real estate goals, put our experience to work for you.

Best Wishes
www.vianigroup.com
Viani | Kushner | Richter | Lang | Campbell

City of Calgary, March 1, 2022 –  Thanks to a surge in new listings, sales activity reached a record high for the month of February with 3,305 sales. The rise in new listings caused adjusted inventories to rise above last months levels. However, with only one month of supply, the market continues to favour the seller. 

“Sales have been somewhat restricted by the lack of supply choice in the market. While sellers did respond with a record level of new listings this month, the demand has been so strong that the housing market continues to remain undersupplied causing further price gains,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

The total residential benchmark price for the city rose by nearly six per cent over January levels and was over 16 per cent higher than levels recorded last February. Much of the growth has been driven by the detached segment of the market which has not seen conditions this tight in over 15 years. 

This is the fourth consecutive month that the market has dealt with conditions that are far tighter than what the city experienced last spring. While the gains in new listings will help provide choice to purchasers and eventually support more balanced conditions, it will take some time to work through the demand in the market. 

Detached For the third consecutive month, the months of supply in the detached sector has remained below one month. The limited supply and persistently strong demand has placed significant upward pressure on prices. As of February, the benchmark price reached $596,400, which is nearly $50,000 higher than prices seen at the end of 2021 and over $90,000 higher than February 2021 prices. Price gains have occurred in every district of the city with year-over-year gains pushing above 20 per cent in the North, South and South East districts.  After the first two months of the year, sales growth has been the strongest in the $600,000 to $1,000,000 price range, as this is where there was the largest gain in new listings. Overall, conditions remain exceptionally tight across all price ranges, with less than one month of supply occurring for all homes priced under $1,000,000 over the first two months of the year.  Semi-Detached The record number of new listings for February were met with record high February sales, doing little to ease the pressure in this segment of the market. The months of supply dropped to one month, something that has not happened in February since 2006. The persistent and exceptionally tight conditions caused further upward pressure on prices. Thanks to gains across every district, the semi-detached unadjusted benchmark price reached $461,400 in February, which is nearly five per cent higher than last month and 16 per cent higher than levels recorded in February 2021. Row Lack of supply choice in competing property types drove many consumers to consider row style properties. However, following several months of strong sales relative to new listings, inventory levels have also trended down relative to what we traditionally see at this time of year. With 537 sales in February and 535 units in inventory, the months of supply dropped to one month for the first time since early 2007. The persistent sellers’ market conditions caused steep monthly price gains across most districts of the city. The largest month gains occurred in the North East, North and West end of the city. Despite recent gains, prices remain shy of previous highs in all districts except the West. Apartment Condominium After falling behind other property types, the apartment condominium sector recorded a surge in sales this month, reaching record highs for February. New listings also improved but did little to cause any significant change to inventory levels. The months of supply dipped below two months and was the tightest seen in the apartment condo sector since 2007. The recent tightness has supported some upward pressure in prices this month. However, price gains are significantly lower than the other property types and prices continue to remain over 14 per cent below previous highs. While this segment of the market has not experienced the same supply constraints as other property types, if conditions remain this tight, we could see more substantial shifts toward price recovery.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie Record high new listings in February enabled sales to reach a record high. With 385 new listings and 289 sales, the sales to new listings ratio fell to 75 per cent, which is the first time it dropped below 80 per cent since spring of last year. While the recent gains provided some monthly uplift in inventory levels, supply remains exceptionally low, and the months of supply has remained below one month for the fourth consecutive month. Persistently tight market conditions especially in the detached and semi-detached sector has driven significant price growth in the market. In February, the unadjusted detached price reached $490,800, nearly six per cent over last month and 22 per cent higher than last year’s levels.  Cochrane New listings reached a record monthly high in February. However, sales nearly matched the levels of new listings causing inventories to face further declines and the months of supply to fall to the lowest levels ever recorded at less than half of month of supply. This is the fourth consecutive month with the months of supply has been below one month and the sellers’ market conditions are placing significant upward pressure on prices especially for detached and semi-detached properties. In February, the unadjusted detached benchmark price reached $548,400, nearly seven per cent higher than last month and over 21 per cent higher than levels recorded last February. Price gains have occurred across all property types; however, apartment style properties continue to record prices below previous highs seen back in 2007.  Okotoks Like other markets, gains in new listings helped support record levels of sales for February. However, the gains in new listings were not enough to support any substantial change in the low inventory situation. With only 56 units in inventory at the end of the month, this is the lowest February inventory seen since 2006. Strong sales combined with low inventory caused the months of supply to ease further and remain below one month for the third consecutive month.  The persistent tight market conditions caused a surge in prices. In February, the benchmark price for a detached home reached $554,900, nearly eight per cent higher than last month and over 15 per cent higher than last February.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

City of Calgary, Feb. 1, 2022 – Thanks to persistently strong sales, inventory levels in the city eased to 2,620 units, the lowest levels seen since 2006. This caused the months of supply to remain exceptionally low for this time of year at 1.3 months. 

The tight market conditions contributed to further upward pressure on prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in January reached $472,300, a monthly gain of nearly two per cent and a year-over-year gain of 12 per cent.

“Expected gains in lending rates are contributing to persistently strong demand in the housing market, as purchasers are eager to get ahead of any increases,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“We did see more listings this month, but it did little to change the market balance or take any pressure off prices. This was expected, as these conditions should persist for several more months.”

There were 2,009 sales in January, well below record levels, but over 98 per cent higher than long-term trends. At the same time, 2,476 new listings came onto the market, resulting in a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 81 per cent. This is far higher than levels traditionally recorded in January. 

Detached New listings improved in January, reaching 1,295 units. However, with 1,148 sales in the month, inventory levels continued to fall. Limited levels of supply are likely preventing stronger sales growth for this property type. Detached inventory levels fell to a new record low at 895 units and for the second month in a row the months of supply remained below one month. The exceptionally tight conditions caused prices to rise. In January, the unadjusted benchmark price rose by $12,000 compared with December, a monthly gain of over two per cent and a year-over-year gain of 14 per cent. While the gains compared with January 2021 are significant, much of last year’s price growth did not occur until the spring. Semi-Detached January saw a boost in new listings compared to the low levels seen at the end of 2021. This helped support further gains in sales. Despite the increase in new listings, inventory levels remained relatively low. With only 242 units in inventory, levels are 46 per cent lower than longer-term trends. Low inventories and strong sales resulted in a months of supply of just over one month, far lower than both last year and longer-term averages. The tight market conditions caused prices to trend up compared with last month, resulting in a January benchmark price of $439,900. Prices trended up in every district, but the monthly gains were not as high in the North West and City Centre as they were in the rest of the city. Row January row sales rose to 305 units, more than double the levels traditionally seen at this time of year. The improvement in sales was related to the level of new listings this month. New listings are still lower than traditional levels, but they did rise from figures seen over the last few months of 2021. Inventories eased slightly compared to last month, but with only 422 units in inventory, supply levels remain well below long term-trends. As a result, the market continues to favour the seller. Persistently tight market conditions caused prices to increase for row-style properties. However, the pace of growth was not as high as what we’ve seen in the detached segment of the market. January’s benchmark price reached $305,600, nearly two per cent higher than last month and nine per cent higher than last year. Apartment Condominium With 357 sales in January, levels were the highest they have been for the month since 2007. The improvement in sales was supported by the number of new listings that came onto the market. In January, there were 551 new listings added to the market. With just over 1,000 units in inventory, there is more supply available in the apartment condominium sector than in any other sector. Despite the improvement in sales, the months of supply has remained at three months, reflecting relatively balanced conditions. With fewer supply challenges in this market, prices have remained relatively unchanged compared to last month. The unadjusted benchmark price of $251,200 in this sector is over two per cent higher than last year.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Despite persistently low inventory levels, sales activity rose to near-record highs for January. The gains in sales were possible due to the boost in new listings in January compared with levels recorded over the past few months. However, given the persistently low inventory levels, the market remains in strong sellers’ market conditions with less than one month of supply.

Persistently tight market conditions continue to place upward pressure on prices. In January, the total residential benchmark price rose by nearly three per cent over last month to $408,900. Most of the increase was due to significant gains recorded for both detached and semi-detached homes.

Cochrane

Sales in Cochrane hit record high levels for January. The growth was supported by gains in new listings relative to what was available over the last few months of 2021. The monthly gains in new listings helped keep inventory levels relatively stable, but with only 62 units available in inventory, levels are over 70 per cent lower than what we traditionally see in the market. The strong sales and low inventory levels kept the months of supply below one month, the lowest ever recorded for January in Cochrane.

The tight market conditions continue to place upward pressure on prices. In January, the benchmark price for a detached home rose to $512,900. Due to strong monthly gains occurring at the end of last year, the monthly growth was not as high as what was seen in some other regional markets.

Okotoks

Sales activity remained relatively strong in Okotoks, despite persistently low inventory levels. In January, there were 38 units in inventory, the lowest levels ever seen for the month and 76 per cent lower than long-term averages. With 43 sales this month and 38 units in inventory, the months of supply remained exceptionally tight at under one month.

Okotoks has not faced conditions this tight since 2006 and it is causing upward pressure on prices. In January, the detached benchmark price rose to $515,100, a significant increase compared with last month and over eight per cent higher than last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Calgary housing market expected to remain strong this year after record-breaking 2021

CREB® has released its 2022 housing market forecast for Calgary and surrounding areas.

According to the report, housing market activity in 2022 is expected to moderate relative to record levels of activity in 2021, while remaining stronger than historical levels.

“Despite challenges with COVID-19, we are starting to see a turnaround in our job and migration numbers, and while interest rates are expected to rise, they remain relatively low. All these factors are expected to support strong housing demand into 2022,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

“The biggest question will be whether supply can meet that demand. It will take time for housing to move out of sellers’ market conditions, so we do anticipate prices will continue to rise this year.”

Rising lending rates are expected to cool some of the demand later this year, but rates are still exceptionally low, supporting strong housing sales, especially from those who experienced increased savings and equity gains throughout the pandemic.  Lurie says economic improvements are also expected to support both job and population growth, adding new sources of demand for housing.

“Despite challenges with COVID-19, we are starting to see a turnaround in our job and migration numbers, and while interest rates are expected to rise, they remain relatively low. All these factors are expected to support strong housing demand into 2022.” - CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

During the pandemic, supply has been a struggle for many industries, including the housing market. New listings have improved, but Lurie says it has not been enough to offset high sales levels, keeping inventories relatively low and likely limiting sales growth in the market. 

As we move through 2022, Lurie says new listings in the resale market should remain relatively strong thanks to higher home prices. At the same time, the new-home sector recorded a surge in starts last year, and the completion of those starts should help add to overall supply choice in the market.

Supply levels are expected to improve relative to demand this year, according to the report. However, conditions are expected to remain relatively tight throughout the spring market, supporting further price gains. 

As the market balance gradually improves, Lurie says upward price pressure in the housing market should ease. Overall, price growth is expected to ease to four percent in 2022.

“While conditions in the housing market are expected to remain strong, there is a significant amount of uncertainty that could impact housing,” said Lurie. 

“If supply levels remain low relative to demand, we could see stronger-than-expected price growth. On the other hand, if rates rise much faster and higher than expected, it could cause a more significant pullback in sales.”

Click here for the full CREB® 2022 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

Courtesy Calgary Real Estate Board.

The year finished with nearly 10% more home sales than the previous record year of 2020

The data is in and strong December home sales crowned 2021 as the busiest year for homebuying in the 14-year history of the RE/MAX National Housing Report. According to the latest report, which measured 51 metro areas, December 2021 home sales were the second-highest for the month in report history, trailing only December 2020. In fact, there’s evidence to suggest December home transactions could have been even stronger had it not been for record-low inventory.

Contributing to the craze, the year 2021 ended with the smallest number of homes for sale in the 14-year history of the report. The 10 months with the lowest inventory in report history all occurred in 2021. Based on the rate of home sales in December 2021, the Months Supply of Inventory decreased to 1.2 compared to 1.4 in November 2021, and decreased compared to 2.0 in December 2020. For context, a six months supply indicates a market balanced equally between buyers and sellers.

The ups and downs of the housing market since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020 have proven one thing: homebuyers are resilient – and those who are able to get in the game have wasted no time. Nick Bailey, President and Chief Executive Officer of RE/MAX, LLC, thinks the hot streak is likely to continue into 2022 but is hopeful more sellers come off the fence to alleviate some of the challenges buyers have been facing for years.

“December capped a fantastic year for home sales. After a busy 2020, we expected 2021 to be even better – and it was. Buyers shrugged off all sorts of potential obstacles – high prices, record-low inventory, stiff competition for available listings – and kept things rolling the entire year.”

Adds Bailey, “The story of housing in 2021 was centred around high demand that led to a substantial increase in sales despite ultra-low supply. What’s promising for 2022 is that many of the factors which drove record sales in 2021 remain in place. Interest rates are still attractive, workplace flexibility continues, and many homeowners are sitting on a mountain of equity. If more of them become sellers, there’s ample reason to think the hot streak will continue. The past two years have proven that buyers are out there and ready to go.”

Courtesy RE/MAX Canada

City of Calgary, Jan. 4, 2022 – Thanks to exceptionally high sales in December, 2021 was a record year for home sales. Calgary sales reached 27,686 units this year, nearly 72 per cent higher than last year and over 44 per cent higher than the 10-year average.

“Concerns over inflation and rising lending rates likely created more urgency with buyers over the past few months. However, as is the case in many other cities, the supply has not kept pace with the demand, causing strong price growth,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

As of December, the unadjusted benchmark price rose by nearly one per cent over last month and was sitting over 10 per cent higher than last year’s figures. Overall, the 2021 benchmark price rose by more than eight per cent compared to last year for a total of $451,567, just shy of the annual record high set back in 2015.

We are entering 2022 with some of the tightest conditions seen in over a decade. As of December, inventory levels are nearly 25 per cent lower than long-term averages for the month. This will have an impact on our housing market as we move through 2022. More details on the housing market forecast for 2022 will be released on Jan. 25.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached With 17,038 sales in 2021, home sales remained slightly lower than the record high set in 2005. While a new record was not set, sales are still over 40 per cent higher than long-term averages and supply challenges likely prevented stronger sales this year. New listings rose, but it was not enough to offset sales, causing inventories to ease. In the detached sector, average inventory levels were over 23 per cent lower than long-term trends. With only 898 units in inventory in December, we are entering 2022 with the lowest detached inventory on record. Strong sales relative to inventory levels caused the months of supply to dip below one month, which is tighter than levels recorded in the spring market. Tightening conditions over the past several months once again weighed on prices. The detached benchmark price rose by nearly one per cent compared with last month and is nearly 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Overall, the detached sector has recorded the largest annual price gain at nearly 10 per cent, not only recovering from the 2015 annual high, but exceeding it by nearly three per cent. Semi-Detached In 2021, there were 2,571 semi-detached sales, an annual gain of 55 per cent and over 47 per cent higher than longer-term trends. Relative affordability and less supply choice in the detached sector caused many to consider semi-detached properties. However, like other property types, semi-detached sales growth outpaced new-listings growth, especially at the end of the year, causing significant declines in inventory levels and the months of supply, which has remained below two for the past three months. Tight conditions have caused further price growth, as December prices were nearly 10 per cent higher than last year. Overall, on an annual basis, semi-detached home prices improved by eight per cent, reaching a new record high. However, prices have not recovered across all districts, as the City Centre, North East and South districts have not seen full price recovery, Row Over the past few months, row properties have increased in popularity, reporting strong sales growth that has outpaced the growth in new listings. This has created much tighter conditions and is supporting stronger price growth. Inventories were not as much of a challenge earlier in the year, so the pace of price growth was not as high as the growth seen among some of the other property types during that time. However, benchmark prices rose by six per cent on an annual basis, supporting some price recovery. Despite the gains, prices remain nearly nine per cent lower than the previous high. Apartment Condominium Record sales in December were not enough to support annual record-high sales for this property type. Unlike the other property types, the apartment condominium sector has not experienced many supply challenges, as inventories this year generally remained above historical levels. However, the growth in sales was enough to help shift the market from one that favoured the buyer to one that was relatively balanced. The balanced conditions did support modest annual price growth of just over two per cent. Each district saw some improvement in price this year, varying from less than one per cent growth in the City Centre to over six per cent growth in the West district. Despite these price gains, prices are still recovering across all districts and citywide prices remain 14 per cent lower than previous highs recorded in 2014.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

December sales reached record levels despite further reduction in new listings. The strong sales have caused inventory levels to drop to a mere 82 units, which is the lowest they’ve been since 2005. Overall, Airdrie recorded a record 2,299 sales this year. This is 78 per cent higher than activity recorded over the past 10 years and is 36 per cent higher than the previous record set in 2014.

Airdrie’s strong growth in housing demand could be related to the relative affordability of detached homes there compared to Calgary and less concern among consumers over commute times, as some companies shift toward hybrid work options. Bringing on new supply has been a challenge in Airdrie, and this has driven some significant price gains in the city. Overall, annual benchmark prices hit a new record at $380,867 in 2021, nearly 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels and two per cent higher than the previous annual record.

Cochrane

Despite persistently low levels of new listings relative to sales, Cochrane’s sales reached record levels in 2021. However, the sales-to-new-listings ratio has exceeded 100 per cent for four of the past six months, causing inventories to drop to the lowest levels seen in over a decade.

This has caused further tightening in the market, as the months of supply has remained below one month over the past two months. The exceptionally tight conditions, especially over the past few months, have caused further price gains. As of December, the benchmark price was nearly 10 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Overall, on an annual basis, the benchmark price has increased by seven per cent, reflecting a new record high for the town.

Okotoks

Despite persistent challenges with supply levels, sales in Okotoks reached record levels in 2021. However, the strong sales weighed on inventory levels, which on average eased by 41 per cent this year and remain over 50 per cent lower than what the market typically has available.

Easing inventory and strong sales left the months of supply at record-low levels in December with less than one month of supply. With sellers’ market conditions throughout the year, there have been some significant gains in prices. On an annual basis, the benchmark price hit a new record high at $474,842, which is an annual gain of nearly nine per cent.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

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Confidence continues in the Canadian real estate market, with the inter-provincial relocation trend likely to remain strong in 2022

- Migration between provinces is expected to continue in 2022, potentially impacting local Canadian real estate conditions, according to 53 percent of RE/MAX brokers (20 out of 38)
- 49 percent of Canadians believe the housing market will remain steady in 2022 and view real estate as one of the best investment options over the next year
- Some of the highest outlooks are anticipated for Atlantic Canada, with Moncton and Halifax projecting average residential sales prices to increase by 20 percent and 16 percent respectively in 2022
- 97 percent of regions (37 out of 38) surveyed are likely to remain seller’s markets in 2022

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, December 1, 2021 – RE/MAX is anticipating steady price growth across the Canadian real estate market in 2022, with inter-provincial migration continuing to be a key driver of housing activity in many regions, based on surveys of RE/MAX brokers and agents, as reflected in the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report. The ongoing housing supply shortage is likely to continue, putting upward pressure on prices. As a result of these factors, RE/MAX Canada estimates a 9.2-per-cent increase in average residential sales prices across the country*.

“Based on feedback from our brokers and agents, the inter-provincial relocation trend that we began to see in the summer of 2020 still remains very strong and is expected to continue into 2022,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Less-dense cities and neighbourhoods offer buyers the prospect of greater affordability, along with liveability factors such as more space. In order for these regions to retain these appealing qualities and their relative market balance, housing supply needs to be added. Without more homes and in the face of rising demand, there’s potential for conditions in these regions to shift further.”

Despite the global pandemic, many Canadians still feel confident in the real estate market. According to a Leger survey conducted on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 49 percent of respondents believe Canadian real estate will remain one of their best investment options in 2022 (59 percent of homeowners vs. 34 percent non-homeowners which included renters, those not looking to buy, and those currently looking to purchase). Additionally, 49 percent of respondents are confident the Canadian real estate market will remain steady next year.

“Canadians recognize the value and investment potential in their homes. However, market challenges such as rising prices and limited supply have impacted local markets from coast-to-coast, causing angst this past year among those looking to get into the market and those hoping to move up in it,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Despite this, it’s encouraging to see that many are feeling confident in the housing market in 2022 and view Canadian real estate as a solid investment.”

2022 REGIONAL CANADIAN REAL ESTATE INSIGHTS

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market in 2021 and share their estimated outlook for 2022. Based on their insights, 97 percent of Canadian real estate markets are expected to favour sellers, impacted by limited housing supply and high demand.

WESTERN CANADA

The Calgary and Edmonton markets shifted from balanced conditions in 2020 to seller’s markets in 2021, which brokers and agents in the region expect to continue into 2022. This is attributed to heightened demand prompted by the inter-provincial migration trend that took place throughout 2021, which saw many homebuyers from Ontario and British Columbia driving demand high, while supply remained low.

In addition to an increase in out-of-province buyers flocking to Edmonton, the region has also welcomed investors who found themselves priced out of other markets. RBC’s provincial outlook for Alberta puts this province ahead of all others in terms of economic growth in 2022, which should bode well for homebuyers and investors alike 2022.

Regions such as Victoria, Nanaimo, Regina and Kelowna also experienced an influx of buyers in search of larger properties and greater affordability, which is likely to continue pushing demand and prices up in 2022. This trend has notably increased demand for single-family detached homes and in some regions, condos as well, which may continue in 2022.

Despite some buyers choosing to move away from urban centres such as Vancouver/Greater Vancouver in favour of suburban areas within British Columbia, or leaving the province entirely, Vancouver/Greater Vancouver has remained a quality place to live. The region continues to draw interest from Canadian and international buyers, a trend that is likely to grow next year, in tandem with rising immigration. Vancouver/Greater Vancouver is expected to remain a seller’s market in 2022, providing inventory stays tight and current demand continues, according to a RE/MAX broker in Greater Vancouver Area.

Winnipeg is anticipated to continue to be a seller’s market in 2022. Young couples enjoying the freedom to work from home have been driving much of the demand in the region, especially for one- and two-story detached homes. The appeal of Winnipeg has had less to do with affordability, and more with lifestyle shifts such as hybrid working environments.

ONTARIO

According to the RE/MAX broker network in Ontario, market activity across the province is anticipated to remain steady in 2022, with continued average price growth, although at widely varying degrees. RE/MAX brokers anticipate average sale price increases in smaller markets such as North Bay (four percent); Sudbury (five percent); Thunder Bay (10 percent); Collingwood/Georgian Bay (10 percent); and Muskoka (20 pecent), where the move-over trend has remained strong. Meanwhile, in larger markets within the province, there’s a possibility that more immigration could weigh on supply levels and prices, including Ottawa (five percent); Durham (seven percent); Brampton (eight percent); Toronto (10 percent); Mississauga (14 percent).

When it comes to price appreciation year-over-year, there are a few regions that stood out in 2021 for their exponential increases across all property types, including Brampton, which rose from $869,107 in 2020 to $1,085,417 in 2021 (25 per cent); Durham from $706,818 in 2020 to $914,48 in 2021 (29 per cent); and London from $487,500 in 2020 to $633,700 in 2021 (30 per cent). In comparison, Toronto experienced a modest seven-per-cent increase year-over-year ($986,085 in 2020 to $1,054,922 in 2021).

ATLANTIC CANADA

All of Atlantic Canada’s regions analyzed are currently seller’s markets, with the potential for average sale prices to increase between five to 20 percent in 2022, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents. Larger urban centres including Moncton, Fredericton, Saint John, Halifax, Charlottetown and St. John’s have all experienced an influx of out-of-province buyers, especially from Ontario, moving to the region in search of greater affordability agnd liveability.

Due to this spike in demand, much of the region has experienced increasing competition, especially among single-family detached homes and condos in some cities. There’s a possibility that this may further be amplified as immigration continues to grow in the region.

According to RE/MAX brokers and agents in the region, new construction is anticipated to remain strong into 2022, although construction activity may be dampened by ongoing supply shortages and delays in permits related to the pandemic backlog.

Seller’s market conditions are expected to prevail across the region in 2022, with the exception of Charlottetown and Southern Nova Scotia, which may return more to a balanced state as activity gradually begins to decrease.

These factors have led to some of the highest price outlooks in the country, with Halifax and Moncton projecting estimated average residential sales price to increase by 16, and 20 percent respectively.

Additional findings from the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report

- Two-in-five Canadians trust their agent to advise them during the current real estate landscape (43 percent)
- 23 percent of Canadians now have a greater desire to build their own home or buy pre-construction
- 26 percent of Canadians have the desire to purchase a home while mortgage rates remain low
- 62 percent of Canadians currently own a home. This is higher among those ages 35+ (70 percent) compared with Millennials, ages 18-34 (42 percent)

- The majority of Canadians (72 percent) said rising home prices did not impact their purchasing decisions in 2021.

About the 2022 Housing Market Outlook Report

 

The 2022 RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted by the number of transactions in each region.

*2020 average residential sale price numbers were full-year, 2021 were from January 2021 – October 31, 2022.

Download the Full Report Here

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Courtesy RE/MAX Canada

Driven by growth in demand for all property types, there were 2,110 sales in November, just shy of the record for the month set in 2005.

“Lending rates are expected to increase next year, which has created a sense of urgency among purchasers who want to get into the housing market before rates rise,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“At the same time, supply levels have struggled to keep pace, causing tight conditions and additional price gains.”

New listings in November totalled 1,989 units, which was fewer than the number of sales this month. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of over 100 per cent, inventory levels dropped to 3,922 units and the months of supply dipped below two months.

It is not unusual to see new listings and inventories trend down at this time of year, but slower sales are also typical. Instead, sales have remained at roughly the same levels seen since August.

Persistent demand and slow supply reaction caused the benchmark price to trend up this month to $461,000, an increase compared with last month and nearly nine per cent higher than levels recorded last year.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached Conditions in the detached home sector continued to tighten in November, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio that pushed up to 118 per cent and the months of supply dropping to 1.2 months. These are levels not seen since the spring. More than half of sales occurred in the $400,000 – $600,000 price range, but the largest sales gains occurred for properties price above $600,000. This is, in part, related to more supply choice in the upper end of the market compared with the lower end. On a year-to-date basis, homes priced above $600,000 now reflect nearly 31 per cent of all sales, far higher than the 23 per cent recorded last year. Benchmark prices rose to $542,600, a new monthly record and nearly 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Year-over-year price gains have occurred in every district, with the strongest growth occurring in the West, where gains exceeded 13 per cent. The City Centre remains the only district where prices remain below 2014 highs. Semi-Detached Another record-high month of sales pushed year-to-date sales to 2,436 units. This is not only a year-to-date record, but also 13 per cent higher than the annual record set in 2014. With less supply choice in the detached sector, many buyers have shifted their focus to semi-detached homes. However, like the detached sector, semi-detached supply levels have been struggling to keep up, as the months of supply dipped below two months in November. So far this year, most sales have occurred in the $300,000 – $400,000 range, but activity has increased at the upper end of the market, where semi-detached homes priced above $700,000 now reflect more than 20 per cent of all sales. This is a significant shift compared to last year, where this segment represented only 15 per cent of semi-detached sales. Thanks to gains in all districts, the semi-detached benchmark price rose to $429,800, which is nearly nine per cent higher than last year. On a year-to-date basis, prices have recovered in all districts except the City Centre, North East and South. Row Row properties have not faced the same supply challenges as semi-detached properties so far this year. As a result, the row sector has seen the largest growth in sales, which have already surpassed the annual record high. Row properties often offer a more affordable alternative to detached homes for consumers who are looking for more space than an apartment condominium. Nearly 83 per cent of all sales that occurred in this sector were priced below $400,000. While row supply levels have not been as tight as in the detached or semi-detached sectors, strong demand has caused inventories to fall. This is contributing to tighter market conditions in this segment as well. With less supply/demand pressures for this property type, prices have not experienced the same gains seen among detached or semi-detached homes. On a year-to-date basis, the benchmark price was six per cent higher than last year, but it remains lower than previous highs set in 2015. Apartment Condominium The apartment condominium sector recorded another month of strong growth, contributing to year-to-date sales of 3,834. Sales remain far from record highs, but this is still the highest level of activity seen since 2014. Improving sales led to slightly tighter conditions in this market, but inventory levels were high relative to historical levels, making this segment an outlier compared with the other property types. Supply challenges have not been as prevalent for apartment condominiums, so prices growth and recovery in the sector have remained far lower than the other property types. However, on a year-to-date basis, prices have improved by more than two per cent in a reversal of the steady annual decline recorded since 2015.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie November sales reached record levels despite limited inventory in the market. There were only 106 new listings this month compared with 144 sales, driving the sales-to-new-listings ratio up to 136 per cent. This caused inventories to fall to 137 units and the months of supply to drop below one month. Airdrie has faced sellers’ market conditions since the middle of last year and this has had a significant impact on prices. On a year-to-date basis, benchmark prices have risen by nearly 12 per cent, with the strongest gains occurring in the detached sector. Cochrane Like Airdrie, Cochrane experienced another record month of sales in November. Year-to-date sales reached 1,163 units, which is double the long-term average for the town. Like many other areas, Cochrane’s housing supply is struggling to keep up with demand. New listings eased this month, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio above 146 per cent, and inventories fell to 77 units. This caused the month of supply to drop below one month, the lowest ever recorded for November. Persistently tight conditions continue to impact prices. On a year-to-date basis, prices have risen by nearly seven per cent, with gains recorded for every property type. Okotoks New listings were higher this month than last year’s levels, but they could not keep pace with sales. The sales-to-new-listings ratio remained above 100 per cent for the second month in a row, causing further declines in inventory levels and the months of supply. Persistently strong demand and easing supply levels have ensured the market continues to favour the seller. This has resulted in upward pressure on prices. Driven by strong gains in the detached sector, prices have improved by nearly nine per cent on a year-to-date basis.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.