Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate as Economic Outlook Remains Stable

The Bank of Canada has held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is largely unchanged from the October Monetary Policy Report, thought it remains unpredictable due to US trade policies. In Canada, economic growth stalled in Q4 as exports continue to face pressure from US tariffs, while domestic demand and employment have shown signs of improvements. The Bank projects a modest growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, with inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target.

Bank of Canada’s 2026 Policy Interest Rate Announcement Schedule

Bank of Canada announces its decision for the overnight rate target eight times a year, typically on a Wednesday. The schedule for 2026 is as follows:

Wednesday, January 28

Wednesday, March 18

Wednesday, April 29

Wednesday, June 10

Wednesday, July 15

Wednesday, September 2

Wednesday, October 28

Wednesday, December 9

Read the full interest rate announcement below:

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed relative to the projection in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, the outlook is vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policies and geopolitical risks.

Economic growth in the United States continues to outpace expectations and is projected to remain solid, driven by AI-related investment and consumer spending. Tariffs are pushing up US inflation, although their effect is expected to fade gradually later this year. In the euro area, growth has been supported by activity in service sectors and will get additional support from fiscal policy. China’s GDP growth is expected to slow gradually, as weakening domestic demand offsets strength in exports. Overall, the Bank expects global growth to average about 3% over the projection horizon.

Global financial conditions have remained accommodative overall. Recent weakness in the US dollar has pushed the Canadian dollar above 72 cents, roughly where it had been since the October MPR. Oil prices have been fluctuating in response to geopolitical events and, going forward, are assumed to be slightly below the levels in the October report.

US trade restrictions and uncertainty continue to disrupt growth in Canada. After a strong third quarter, GDP growth in the fourth quarter likely stalled. Exports continue to be buffeted by US tariffs, while domestic demand appears to be picking up. Employment has risen in recent months. Still, the unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.8% and relatively few businesses say they plan to hire more workers.

Economic growth is projected to be modest in the near term as population growth slows and Canada adjusts to US protectionism. In the projection, consumer spending holds up and business investment strengthens gradually, with fiscal policy providing some support. The Bank projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, broadly in line with the October projection. A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement.

CPI inflation picked up in December to 2.4%, boosted by base-year effects linked to last winter’s GST/HST holiday. Excluding the effect of changes in taxes, inflation has been slowing since September. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have eased from 3% in October to around 2½% in December. Inflation was 2.1% in 2025 and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply.

Monetary policy is focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today. However, uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Courtesy the Bank of Canada

Homebuyers exploring Alberta real estate want to afford both their mortgage and everyday costs without feeling stretched. Many are coming from higher-priced provinces so they can finally have more space. Buyers also look for stability and flexibility. They want shorter commutes, safe streets, and easy access to shops, schools, and services. As more people relocate for a better balance of price and lifestyle, Alberta real estate is drawing extra attention for its value and job opportunities. The province combines big-city careers, thriving smaller centres, and easy access to nature in one place.

Why Alberta?

More Home for Your Money

Your housing dollar usually stretches further here. Many buyers can step into a detached home, a bigger lot, or a newer build in Alberta, instead of settling for a smaller condo in more expensive provinces.

Diverse, Growing Job Market

Energy is still important, but it is no longer the only story. Growth in tech, logistics, agri-food, film, and services gives buyers more ways to build a career without having to leave the province.

In-Migration and Population Growth

People are moving in from other parts of Canada and abroad. This steady inflow supports local businesses, keeps schools and services strong, and helps protect long-term demand for housing.

Lower Taxes and Closing Costs

With no provincial sales tax and only modest land title and mortgage registration fees instead of a percentage-based land transfer tax, more of your money goes into your home rather than one-time transaction costs.

Manageable Cost of Living

Housing, taxes, and everyday expenses often line up better with household incomes than in many larger markets. For a lot of buyers, that balance makes it easier to plan, save, and stay in their home over time.

Lifestyle and Quality of Life

You can choose a downtown condo, a suburban family home, or a place in a smaller centre and still reach trails, parks, lakes, and mountain getaways without leaving the province. Many buyers like that they can work in a growing market and still enjoy quick access to the outdoors.

Where to Buy in Alberta in 2026

Calgary – Best for Big-City Jobs and Long-Term Growth

Calgary is still Alberta’s main draw if you want big-city careers and a busy urban lifestyle. The city has a diverse job market, strong in energy, tech, and professional services, along with transit, universities, hospitals, festivals, and pro sports. Calgary real estate appeals to buyers who want long-term growth potential and to investors who care about solid rental demand.

Airdrie – Best for Commuters and Young Families Near Calgary

If you are looking at Airdrie, Alberta real estate, you get a fast-growing city with a small-town feel just north of Calgary. Many buyers like the mix of newer neighbourhoods, parks, schools, and an easier commute into Calgary for work. Airdrie suits young families and commuters who want more house and yard space while staying close to big-city jobs and services. Many buyers see Airdrie, Alberta, real estate as a way to balance space, price, and easy access to Calgary.

Cochrane – Best for Small-Town Living Close to the Rockies

Cochrane, Alberta, real estate is popular with buyers who want a relaxed, small-town vibe without giving up access to Calgary or the mountains. The town sits along the Bow River, with historic streets, new communities, and quick access to outdoor activities in every direction. It is a good choice if you want coffee shops and local shops during the week and easy day trips into the Rockies on weekends. Because of this, Cochrane, Alberta, real estate attracts a mix of families, professionals, and downsizers.

Camrose – Best for Small-City Stability in Central Alberta

Camrose, Alberta, real estate offers a quieter small-city setting with steady demand from local jobs, education, and regional services. The city acts as a hub for nearby rural areas, so there is a solid need for housing without the rush of a major centre. Camrose works well for buyers who want a stable market, shorter commutes, and a strong sense of community. For many buyers, Camrose, Alberta, real estate provides a stable path into ownership in a smaller centre.

Canmore – Best for Luxury Mountain Lifestyle and Recreation

Canmore is Alberta’s prime choice for buyers who want a mountain lifestyle and are willing to pay a premium for it. The town offers trails, ski hills, and quick access to Banff National Park, with a limited supply of homes that keeps demand high. It fits professionals, remote workers, and second-home buyers who place lifestyle and scenery ahead of strict affordability.

Medicine Hat – Best for Affordability and Retirement-Friendly Living

Medicine Hat, often called Canada’s sunniest city, stands out for its lower overall cost of living and relaxed pace. Buyers find a range of housing options, access to healthcare, parks, trails, and nearby destinations like the Canadian Badlands and Cypress Hills. It is a strong fit for retirees, downsizers, and anyone who wants an affordable smaller city with plenty of sun.

Courtesy REMAX LLC

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) is excited to announce the release of its 2026 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report. This comprehensive report, prepared by CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, provides an in-depth analysis of Calgary's economic and housing market trends for the upcoming year. 

The 2026 report highlights how rising starts over the past several years are translating into supply growth at a time when demand is shifting due to slowing migration and shifting economic conditions.   

“In 2025, the market transitioned from one that favoured the seller to more balanced conditions, as improving supply in the new home, rental and resale markets occurred just as demand returned to more typical levels. This took much of the pressure off home prices last year, especially in the apartment and row segments,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®.  

Lower migration levels, stable employment and interest rates are expected to prevent any substantial change in demand in 2026. However, supply pressures are expected to continue as 26,000 units that are currently under construction are completed over the next few years. 

“Much of the supply growth will be apartment-style rental and ownership units, and while starts are expected to ease this year, it will take time to absorb the supply, considering the weaker migration levels. Ultimately, this will continue to place downward pressure on prices for apartment- and row-style homes. Meanwhile, conditions are more balanced for detached and semi-detached homes, supporting relative price stability for those homes,” Lurie added. 

The report also notes there are several factors that could impact the housing market over the next few years. The recently signed memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the federal and provincial government provides upside risk to the forecast, as shifts in federal regulatory barriers affecting the energy sector may encourage both confidence and investment in Calgary.

On the downside, the renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) this year could create additional uncertainty. Combined with lower energy prices, this could potentially slow positive momentum in business investment activity. 

Click here to read the full CREB® 2026 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

Courtesy of CREB

Following several years of strong price growth, 2025 marked a year of transition thanks to strong demand and limited supply. Due to record high starts, supply levels improved across all aspects of the housing market, just as demand pressure eased due to a reduction in migration levels and heightened uncertainty that persisted throughout the spring market. This helped shift the resale market from one that favoured the seller to one that was more balanced. 

In 2025, sales reached 22,751 units, down 16 per cent over last year, but in-line with long-term trends. Much of the shift came from the growth in supply. 2025 saw over 40,000 new listings come onto the market, nine per cent higher than last year, causing inventories to rise and driving more balanced conditions. 

“Supply levels were expected to rise in 2025. However, the growth was higher than expected especially for apartment condominium and row homes. This weighed on prices in those sectors enough to offset the annual gains reported for both detached and semi-detached homes,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s Chief Economist. "Adjustments in both supply and demand varied across the city, with pockets of the market continuing to experience seller’s market conditions versus some areas where the conditions favoured the buyer. This resulted in different price trends based on location, price range and property type.” 

Overall, the annual average total residential benchmark price in 2025 was $577,492, two per cent lower than last year’s annual average. However, annual detached and semi-detached prices rose by a respective one and three per cent, while apartment and row homes saw prices fall by a respective three and two per cent. 

Compared to other districts, the North East reported the largest decline in prices this year. While some of this is related to improved supply across all areas of the city, it is also important to note that the North East district also reported the strongest price growth over the past two years. 

For the first time in three years, we are heading into the New Year with better inventory levels. Details on what is expected to happen in the market in 2026 will be released at CREB®’s annual Forecast Conference on Jan. 20, 2026.

Detached

Detached sales totaled 11,328 in 2025, down by nearly nine per cent compared to last year. Sales eased across all districts in the city, with the steepest declines occurring in the North East, East and City Centre district. However, unlike the City Centre, the North East and East districts also experienced significant gains in inventory compared to long-term trends, driving annual price declines of two per cent. Meanwhile, in the City Centre detached inventory remained well below long-term averages, which likely prevented stronger sales and contributed to the annual price growth of over three per cent. Despite the differing conditions in different areas of the city, slowing sales and rising supply citywide helped move the market into balanced conditions by the second half of the year. The annual average benchmark price was $752,767, one per cent higher than last year’s annual level.  

Semi-Detached

Semi-detached homes represent the smallest segment of the market, accounting for less than 10 per cent of all sales activity. Sales in 2025 were 2,159, eight per cent lower than last year, but slightly higher than long-term trends. Trends for semi-detached homes have been relatively consistent with the detached market. However, it took longer for this segment of the market to shift to more balanced conditions, resulting in stronger annual price gains. In 2025, the average annual benchmark price was $685,850, nearly three per cent higher than last year. Prices did ease in the North district as competition for new homes weighed on resale activity, but the decline in this district was more than offset by the four per cent gain in the City Centre. 

Row

2025 sales eased by 17 per cent to 3,838 units. Despite the decline, sales were still higher than long-term trends, as row homes are starting to account for a larger share of the overall activity in the city. At the same time, new listings also rose relative to sales, driving inventory gains and taking the pressure off prices. Conditions shifted to more balanced levels relatively early in the year, and by the last quarter conditions ranged from a balanced to a buyer’s market depending on the districts of the city. Overall, this contributed to the annual average benchmark price decline of two per cent. While prices were relatively stable in the City Centre, North West, West  and East districts, additional supply in the resale market and competition from new homes caused prices to decline by four per cent in the North East and North districts.

Apartment Condominium

Apartment-style homes reported the largest adjustment in price in 2025. Sales declined by 28 per cent compared to the near record high levels achieved last year. While the decline was significant, sales were still over 28 per cent higher than long-term trends. The main cause of the shift in conditions was due to the supply. Over the past three years, there has been a rise in apartment-style starts. While most of the apartment starts were purpose-built rental, they are adding to the supply choice and weighing on the resale market. Resale condominiums saw the market shift in favour of buyers by the second half of the year, with elevated months of supply being reported in most districts of the city. This resulted in relatively persistent downward pressure on prices, causing the annual average benchmark price to decline by nearly three per cent. Price declines were the steepest in the North East nearing five per cent. The only area to report relative stability in the annual price was in the West district.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Increased competition from the new home market, along with more supply options in competing resale markets, has contributed to the added supply in the resale market in Airdrie. Following four consecutive years of exceptionally low inventory levels, 2025 saw inventory rise to levels not seen since prior to the pandemic. While sales activity did remain in line with long-term trends despite an annual decline, the push up in inventories caused the months of supply to generally rise throughout the year. Overall, the annual average benchmark price eased by two per cent this year. 

Cochrane

Sales in Cochrane were similar to last year and above long-term trends. While demand stayed relatively strong in the town, steady gains in supply did cause conditions to shift to a more balanced state by the end of 2025. With the shift occurring later in the year, we did not see the same downward pressure on prices. In fact, on an annual basis the benchmark price in Cochrane was $578,325, nearly three per cent higher than last year. Cochrane also tends to see a larger share of newer properties being listed and sold on the resale market, impacting the prices in the resale market. 

Okotoks

Okotoks continued to struggle with supply growth. Inventories did rise by over 40 per cent, but levels were exceptionally low last year. Even with the gain in 2025, levels were still 30 per cent below long-term trends. Sales activity in the town remained consistent with the levels reported last year and were higher than long-term trends. The persistently low inventory levels generally kept market conditions relatively tight. However, total residential prices posted only a modest gain over last year, this is likely due to compositional shifts as price growth ranged from over one per cent for detached homes to nearly eight per cent for apartment condominium product.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Courtesy of CREB.

Borrowers in regions where home values have taken big hits may find refinancing tougher in the new year

Lenders have grown surprisingly aggressive with their renewal pricing. Well-qualified borrowers who have paid as agreed can expect widespread renewal rate matching in 2026.

The new year brings fresh possibilities for mortgage shoppers. After painfully analyzing my artisanal tea leaves, here are five semi-safe predictions on what this year might serve up.

Flat-ish rates

Canada’s economy is still upright, doing its best to deal with the United States’ assault on free trade. Borrowing costs this year are essentially hostage to whatever happens during the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) negotiations. A Donald Trump threat to tear up the agreement could spook yields and, hence, mortgage rates, temporarily lower.

Most economists think the Bank of Canada will sit on rates for most of the year, with a possible hike reserved for the fourth quarter. The bond market is pricing in a 50/50 chance of tightening by year-end and almost no chance of a cut.

The other large question mark is how markets will respond to Trump’s new “yes man” chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the Fed pushes short-term rates lower despite lingering inflation threats (bet on it), markets will revolt by adding a credibility premium to long-term bond yields. That could push up U.S. yields and take Canadian rates higher in sympathy.

Naturally, some unforeseen catastrophe that drives rates lower remains a possibility this year.

Pro tip: If Canada and the U.S. make up and a workable trade deal seems likely, economic growth could pick up again and exacerbate inflationary pressures. Many will then choose variable rates as rising bond yields make floating rates cheaper by comparison. Don’t be one of them. Lock in at least a portion via a hybrid mortgage, but don’t go all variable unless you absolutely need the flexibility.

Record renewals?

Almost one-third of mortgages will be up for renewal in 2026.

Across insured and uninsured borrowers with five-year fixed or variable mortgages, the average rate jumped to 3.84 per cent this year from about 1.77 per cent in 2021, based on data compiled by MortgageLogic.news.

That’s more than double the rate, translating into a payment increase of roughly $105 per month for every $100,000 borrowed.

Mind you, this is less pain than the renewal-shock forecasts being tossed around two years ago. That’s mainly because rates cooled off after their 2023 peak, incomes climbed and borrowers leaned on amortization extensions and lump-sum paydowns.

Delinquencies will edge higher, but 90-day arrears will stay below the 30-year average of 0.33 per cent. As a result, there will be no national default crisis — far from it — as Canadians would rather eat cold beans than lose their front door.

Happily, lenders have grown surprisingly aggressive with their renewal pricing. Well-qualified borrowers who have paid as agreed can expect widespread renewal rate matching.

Pro tip: Check the Financial Post’s daily mortgage rate table to see which lenders are currently the least greedy. Then, if you’re content with your current lender, tell them to match those rates or you’re taking your business elsewhere. Don’t forget that if you have an insured mortgage, be sure to check the “Insured” table. If you’re refinancing to pull money out, increase your loan amount or extend your amortization, use the “Uninsured” rate table.

OSFI scraps the stress test

If I were setting odds on the banking regulator ending the federal mortgage stress test for most prime mortgages, I’d put it at better than a coin flip.

Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions head Peter Routledge has already praised the regulator’s loan-to-income (LTI) limit, saying, “So far, we like what we are seeing.”

Moreover, policymakers have already scrapped the stress test for straight switches. So far, anecdotal evidence suggests the change has nudged banks to sharpen pricing to keep renewal customers from wandering off.

Stress test or not, borrowers in regions where home values have taken bigger hits may find refinancing tougher in 2026 as higher rates collide with less home equity.

Mortgage affordability will improve (slightly)

The recipe for mortgage affordability includes:

• One part lower rates, at least when compared with the 2023 to 2024 era;

• One part higher rental vacancy rates —which lowers rents and shifts demand from buyers — courtesy of record rental construction and slower population growth;

• A dash of lower home values, especially when set against the 2021-to-2022 pricing fever;

• A healthy scoop of longer amortizations, with most borrowers opting for 30-year schedules when they’re allowed to;

• Equal parts rising incomes, averaging roughly three per cent to four per cent a year;

• In battered markets — such as Toronto’s high-rise sector — 2026 could bring capitulation, driving prices even lower. That, combined with the other factors above, could hand first-time buyers their best shot at affordability in years, especially if square footage is not high on their wish lists.

AI incursion

Artificial intelligence (AI) is changing everything, and mortgages are predictably next.

This year will see lenders scramble to implement AI underwriting, setting the stage for faster, fully automated mortgage approvals.

“Time to funding” will become a key competitive differentiator. Nimble online competitors such as Pine Canada Financial Corp. and Nesto Inc. will launch instant approvals in 2026 and then use AI to verify income and validate documents, thus stealing market share from those relying on manual adjudication.

AI will also rein in mortgage fraud since robotic document analysis makes spotting forgeries and inconsistencies far less sporting.

Now, if the Canada Revenue Agency ever stops dragging its feet and launches automated online income validation, it would easily rank as the biggest mortgage win of the year.

Courtesy Robert McLister a mortgage strategist and editor of MortgageLogic.news. and the Calgary Herald